A critical review of online battery remaining useful lifetime prediction methods.

Lithium-ion batteries play an important role in our daily lives. The prediction of the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries has become an important issue. This article reviews the methods for predicting the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries from three aspects: machine learning, adaptive filtering, and random processes. The purpose of this study is to review, classify and compare different methods proposed in the literature to predict the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries. This article first summarizes and classifies various methods for predicting the remaining service life of lithium-ion batteries that have been proposed in recent years. On this basis, by selecting specific criteria to evaluate and compare the accuracy of different models, find the most suitable method. Finally, summarize the development of various methods. According to the research in this article, the average accuracy of machine learning is 32.02% higher than the average of the other two methods, and the prediction cycle is 9.87% shorter than the average of the other two methods

A rest time-based prognostic framework for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena

State of health (SOH) prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF) in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS) model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP) model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

A data-driven approach with uncertainty quantification for predicting future capacities and remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery

Predicting future capacities and remaining useful life (RUL) with uncertainty quantification is a key but challenging issue in the applications of battery health diagnosis and management. This paper applies advanced machine-learning techniques to achieve effective future capacities and RUL prediction for lithium-ion batteries with reliable uncertainty management. To be specific, after using the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, the original battery capacity data is decomposed into some intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual. Then the long short term memory (LSTM) sub-model is applied to estimate the residual while the gaussian process regression (GPR) sub-model is utilized to fit the IMFs with the uncertainty level. Consequently, both the long-term dependence of capacity and uncertainty quantification caused by the capacity regenerations can be captured directly and simultaneously. Experimental aging data from different batteries are deployed to evaluate the performance of proposed LSTM+GPR model in comparison with the solo GPR, solo LSTM, GPR+EMD and LSTM+EMD models. Illustrative results demonstrate the combined LSTM+GPR model outperforms other counterparts and is capable of achieving accurate results for both 1-step and multi-step ahead capacity predictions. Even predicting the RUL at the early battery cycle stage, the proposed data-driven approach still presents good adaptability and reliable uncertainty quantification for battery health diagnosis

Fault Diagnosis and Failure Prognostics of Lithium-ion Battery based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine and Memory Particle Filter Framework

123456A novel data driven approach is developed for fault diagnosis and remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics for lithium-ion batteries using Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Memory-Particle Filter (M-PF). Unlike traditional data-driven models for capacity fault diagnosis and failure prognosis, which require multidimensional physical characteristics, the proposed algorithm uses only two variables: Energy Efficiency (EE), and Work Temperature. The aim of this novel framework is to improve the accuracy of incipient and abrupt faults diagnosis and failure prognosis. First, the LSSVM is used to generate residual signal based on capacity fade trends of the Li-ion batteries. Second, adaptive threshold model is developed based on several factors including input, output model error, disturbance, and drift parameter. The adaptive threshold is used to tackle the shortcoming of a fixed threshold. Third, the M-PF is proposed as the new method for failure prognostic to determine Remaining Useful Life (RUL). The M-PF is based on the assumption of the availability of real-time observation and historical data, where the historical failure data can be used instead of the physical failure model within the particle filter. The feasibility of the framework is validated using Li-ion battery prognostic data obtained from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Prognostic Center of Excellence (PCoE). The experimental results show the following: (1) fewer data dimensions for the input data are required compared to traditional empirical models; (2) the proposed diagnostic approach provides an effective way of diagnosing Li-ion battery fault; (3) the proposed prognostic approach can predict the RUL of Li-ion batteries with small error, and has high prediction accuracy; and, (4) the proposed prognostic approach shows that historical failure data can be used instead of a physical failure model in the particle filter

Smart Battery Technology for Lifetime Improvement

Applications of lithium-ion batteries are widespread, ranging from electric vehicles to energy storage systems. In spite of nearly meeting the target in terms of energy density and cost, enhanced safety, lifetime, and second-life applications, there remain challenges. As a result of the difference between the electric characteristics of the cells, the degradation process is accelerated for battery packs containing many cells. The development of new generation battery solutions for transportation and grid storage with improved performance is the goal of this paper, which introduces the novel concept of Smart Battery that brings together batteries with advanced power electronics and artificial intelligence (AI). The key feature is a bypass device attached to each cell that can insert relaxation time to individual cell operation with minimal effect on the load. An advanced AI-based performance optimizer is trained to recognize early signs of accelerated degradation modes and to decide upon the optimal insertion of relaxation time. The resulting pulsed current operation has been proven to extend lifetime by up to 80% in laboratory aging conditions. The Smart Battery unique architecture uses a digital twin to accelerate the training of performance optimizers and predict failures. The Smart Battery technology is a new technology currently at the proof-of-concept stage

Digital twin-driven estimation of state of charge for Li-ion battery

Under the net-zero carbon transition, lithium-ion batteries (LIB) plays a critical role in supporting the connection of more renewable power generation, increasing grid resiliency and creating more flexible energy systems. However, poor useful life and relatively high cost of batteries result in barriers that hinder the wider adoption of battery technologies e.g., renewable resources storage. Furthermore, the useful life of a battery is significantly affected by the materials composition, system design and operating conditions, hence, made the control and management of battery systems more challenging. Digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI) offer an opportunity to establish a battery digital twin that has great potentials to improve the situational awareness of battery management systems and enable the optimal operation of battery storage units. An accurate estimation of the state of charge (SOC) can indicate the battery's status, provide valuable information for maintenance and maximise its useful life. In this paper, a digital twin-driven framework based on a hybrid model that connects LSTM (long short-term memory) and EKF (extended Kalman filter) has been proposed to estimate the SOC of a li-ion battery. LSTM provides more accurate initial SOC estimations and impedance model data to EKF. According to experimental results, the developed battery digital twin is considered less dependent on the initial SOC conditions and is deemed more robust compared to traditional means with a lower RMSE (root mean squared error)

Failure Diagnosis and Prognosis of Safety Critical Systems: Applications in Aerospace Industries

Many safety-critical systems such as aircraft, space crafts, and large power plants are required to operate in a reliable and efficient working condition without any performance degradation. As a result, fault diagnosis and prognosis (FDP) is a research topic of great interest in these systems. FDP systems attempt to use historical and current data of a system, which are collected from various measurements to detect faults, diagnose the types of possible failures, predict and manage failures in advance. This thesis deals with FDP of safety-critical systems. For this purpose, two critical systems including a multifunctional spoiler (MFS) and hydro-control value system are considered, and some challenging issues from the FDP are investigated. This research work consists of three general directions, i.e., monitoring, failure diagnosis, and prognosis. The proposed FDP methods are based on data-driven and model-based approaches. The main aim of the data-driven methods is to utilize measurement data from the system and forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of the faulty components accurately and efficiently. In this regard, two dierent methods are developed. A modular FDP method based on a divide and conquer strategy is presented for the MFS system. The modular structure contains three components:1) fault diagnosis unit, 2) failure parameter estimation unit and 3) RUL unit. The fault diagnosis unit identifies types of faults based on an integration of neural network (NN) method and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) technique. Failure parameter estimation unit observes the failure parameter via a distributed neural network. Afterward, the RUL of the system is predicted by an adaptive Bayesian method. In another work, an innovative data-driven FDP method is developed for hydro-control valve systems. The idea is to use redundancy in multi-sensor data information and enhance the performance of the FDP system. Therefore, a combination of a feature selection method and support vector machine (SVM) method is applied to select proper sensors for monitoring of the hydro-valve system and isolate types of fault. Then, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) method is used to estimate the failure path. Similarly, an online Bayesian algorithm is implemented for forecasting RUL. Model-based methods employ high-delity physics-based model of a system for prognosis task. In this thesis, a novel model-based approach based on an integrated extended Kalman lter (EKF) and Bayesian method is introduced for the MFS system. To monitor the MFS system, a residual estimation method using EKF is performed to capture the progress of the failure. Later, a transformation is utilized to obtain a new measure to estimate the degradation path (DP). Moreover, the recursive Bayesian algorithm is invoked to predict the RUL. Finally, relative accuracy (RA) measure is utilized to assess the performance of the proposed methods

A Comprehensive Review of Digital Twin -- Part 1: Modeling and Twinning Enabling Technologies

As an emerging technology in the era of Industry 4.0, digital twin is gaining unprecedented attention because of its promise to further optimize process design, quality control, health monitoring, decision and policy making, and more, by comprehensively modeling the physical world as a group of interconnected digital models. In a two-part series of papers, we examine the fundamental role of different modeling techniques, twinning enabling technologies, and uncertainty quantification and optimization methods commonly used in digital twins. This first paper presents a thorough literature review of digital twin trends across many disciplines currently pursuing this area of research. Then, digital twin modeling and twinning enabling technologies are further analyzed by classifying them into two main categories: physical-to-virtual, and virtual-to-physical, based on the direction in which data flows. Finally, this paper provides perspectives on the trajectory of digital twin technology over the next decade, and introduces a few emerging areas of research which will likely be of great use in future digital twin research. In part two of this review, the role of uncertainty quantification and optimization are discussed, a battery digital twin is demonstrated, and more perspectives on the future of digital twin are shared

A BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH TO BATTERY AGING IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE TRANSPORTATION AND GRID INTEGRATION

Nowadays, batteries in electric vehicles (EVs) are facing a variety of tasks in their connection to the power grid in addition to the main task, driving. All of these tasks play a very significant role in the battery aging, but they are highly variable due to the change in the driver behavior, grid connection availability and weather conditions. The effect of these external factors in the battery degradation have been studied in literature by mostly deterministic and some stochastic approaches, but limited to specific cases. In this dissertation, first, a large-scale deterministic approach is implemented to evaluate the effect of variations in the EV battery daily tasks. To do so, a software tool named REV-Cycle is developed to simulate the EV powertrain and studied the effect of driving behavior, recharging facilities and timings, grid services and temperature/weather change effects, one by one. However, there are two main problems observed in the deterministic aging evaluation: First, the battery capacity fade factors such as temperature, cycling current, state of charge (SOC) … are dependent to the external variables such as location, vehicle owner’s behavior and availability of the grid connection. Therefore, it is not possible to accurately evaluate the battery degradation with a deterministic model, while its inputs are stochastic. Second, the battery aging factors’ dependency is hierarchical and it is not easy to follow and implement this hierarchy with deterministic models. Therefore, using a hierarchical probabilistic framework is proposed that can better represent the problem and realized that the Bayesian statistics with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can provide the problem solving structure needed for this purpose. A comprehensive hierarchical probabilistic model of the battery capacity fade is proposed using Hierarchical Bayesian Networks (HBN). The model considers all uncertainties of the process including vehicle acceleration and velocity, grid connection for charging and utility services, temperatures and all unseen intermediate variables such as battery power, auxiliary power, efficiencies, etc. and estimates the capacity fade as a probability distribution. Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm is applied to generate the posterior distributions. This modeling approach shows promising result in different case studies and provides more informative evaluation of the battery capacity fade