Statistical Arbitrage Mining for Display Advertising

We study and formulate arbitrage in display advertising. Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mimics stock spot exchanges and utilises computers to algorithmically buy display ads per impression via a real-time auction. Despite the new automation, the ad markets are still informationally inefficient due to the heavily fragmented marketplaces. Two display impressions with similar or identical effectiveness (e.g., measured by conversion or click-through rates for a targeted audience) may sell for quite different prices at different market segments or pricing schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel data mining paradigm called Statistical Arbitrage Mining (SAM) focusing on mining and exploiting price discrepancies between two pricing schemes. In essence, our SAMer is a meta-bidder that hedges advertisers' risk between CPA (cost per action)-based campaigns and CPM (cost per mille impressions)-based ad inventories; it statistically assesses the potential profit and cost for an incoming CPM bid request against a portfolio of CPA campaigns based on the estimated conversion rate, bid landscape and other statistics learned from historical data. In SAM, (i) functional optimisation is utilised to seek for optimal bidding to maximise the expected arbitrage net profit, and (ii) a portfolio-based risk management solution is leveraged to reallocate bid volume and budget across the set of campaigns to make a risk and return trade-off. We propose to jointly optimise both components in an EM fashion with high efficiency to help the meta-bidder successfully catch the transient statistical arbitrage opportunities in RTB. Both the offline experiments on a real-world large-scale dataset and online A/B tests on a commercial platform demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed solution in exploiting arbitrage in various model settings and market environments.Comment: In the proceedings of the 21st ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining (KDD 2015

Real-time Tactical and Strategic Sales Management for Intelligent Agents Guided By Economic Regimes

Many enterprises that participate in dynamic markets need to make product pricing and inventory resource utilization decisions in real-time. We describe a family of statistical models that address these needs by combining characterization of the economic environment with the ability to predict future economic conditions to make tactical (short-term) decisions, such as product pricing, and strategic (long-term) decisions, such as level of finished goods inventories. Our models characterize economic conditions, called economic regimes, in the form of recurrent statistical patterns that have clear qualitative interpretations. We show how these models can be used to predict prices, price trends, and the probability of receiving a customer order at a given price. These “regime†models are developed using statistical analysis of historical data, and are used in real-time to characterize observed market conditions and predict the evolution of market conditions over multiple time scales. We evaluate our models using a testbed derived from the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management (TAC SCM), a supply chain environment characterized by competitive procurement and sales markets, and dynamic pricing. We show how regime models can be used to inform both short-term pricing decisions and longterm resource allocation decisions. Results show that our method outperforms more traditional shortand long-term predictive modeling approaches.dynamic pricing;trading agent competition;agent-mediated electronic commerce;dynamic markets;economic regimes;enabling technologies;price forecasting;supply-chain

Think Local-Act Local: Is It Time to Slow Down the Accelerated Move to Global Marketing?

In view of the accelerated move of great corporations towards global marketing, the strategic changes of such companies raise interesting questions. Is marketing globalization reaching its limits after years of implementation? Is it time for companies to rethink their strategies and move back, like Coca-Cola, to a multi-domestic marketing approach?Global Marketing, Multi-Domestic Marketing Approach, Brand Equity, Drawbacks of Marketing Globalization, Coca-Cola

The Future of Retail Operations

Retailing consists of all the activities associated with the selling of goods to the final consumer. In this article, we review the research on retail operations published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Research (M&SOM) since 1999. We then discuss the current retail landscape and the new research directions it offers, in which M&SOM can play a prominent role

Innovation in Marketing Channels

In more recent years, the context of globalization in which market channel structures and strategies are developing is bringing to a more complex concept of marketing channels, with disintermediation or reintermediation, multichanneling and new roles/specializations that are emerging as new issues.In this context, innovation in marketing channels becomes a complex, multiorganizational, multidisciplinary activity that requires collaboration and interactions across various entities within the supply chain network. In recent years, the innovation processes in marketing channels have occurred with high intensity and speed, especially following the changes spurred by technology that allowed the adoption of more efficient organizational solutions.Retail; Channel Structure; Innovation in Marketing Channels; Retail Technological Innovation; Global Markets

The value and structuring role of web APIs in digital innovation ecosystems: the case of the online travel ecosystem

Interfaces play a key role in facilitating the integration of external sources of innovation and structuring ecosystems. They have been conceptualized as design rules that ensure the interoperability of independently produced modules, with important strategic value for lead firms to attract and control access to complementary assets in platform ecosystems. While meaningful, these theorizations do not fully capture the value and structuring role of web APIs in digital innovation ecosystems. We show this with an empirical study of the online travel ecosystem in the 26 years (1995–2021) after the first Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) were launched. Our findings reveal that web APIs foster a dynamic digital innovation ecosystem with a distributed networked structure in which multiple actors design and use them. We provide evidence of an ecosystem where decentralized interfaces enable decentralized governance and where interfaces establish not only cooperative relationships, but also competitive ones. Instead of locking in complementors, web APIs enable the integration of capabilities from multiple organizations for the co-production of services and products, by interfacing their information systems. Web APIs are important sources of value creation and capture, increasingly being used to offer or sell services, constituting important sources of revenue