Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

Model-driven Scheduling for Distributed Stream Processing Systems

Distributed Stream Processing frameworks are being commonly used with the evolution of Internet of Things(IoT). These frameworks are designed to adapt to the dynamic input message rate by scaling in/out.Apache Storm, originally developed by Twitter is a widely used stream processing engine while others includes Flink, Spark streaming. For running the streaming applications successfully there is need to know the optimal resource requirement, as over-estimation of resources adds extra cost.So we need some strategy to come up with the optimal resource requirement for a given streaming application. In this article, we propose a model-driven approach for scheduling streaming applications that effectively utilizes a priori knowledge of the applications to provide predictable scheduling behavior. Specifically, we use application performance models to offer reliable estimates of the resource allocation required. Further, this intuition also drives resource mapping, and helps narrow the estimated and actual dataflow performance and resource utilization. Together, this model-driven scheduling approach gives a predictable application performance and resource utilization behavior for executing a given DSPS application at a target input stream rate on distributed resources.Comment: 54 page

Reviewing agent-based modelling of socio-ecosystems: a methodology for the analysis of climate change adaptation and sustainability

The integrated - environmental, economic and social - analysis of climate change calls for a paradigm shift as it is fundamentally a problem of complex, bottom-up and multi-agent human behaviour. There is a growing awareness that global environmental change dynamics and the related socio-economic implications involve a degree of complexity that requires an innovative modelling of combined social and ecological systems. Climate change policy can no longer be addressed separately from a broader context of adaptation and sustainability strategies. A vast body of literature on agent-based modelling (ABM) shows its potential to couple social and environmental models, to incorporate the influence of micro-level decision making in the system dynamics and to study the emergence of collective responses to policies. However, there are few publications which concretely apply this methodology to the study of climate change related issues. The analysis of the state of the art reported in this paper supports the idea that today ABM is an appropriate methodology for the bottom-up exploration of climate policies, especially because it can take into account adaptive behaviour and heterogeneity of the system's components.Review, Agent-Based Modelling, Socio-Ecosystems, Climate Change, Adaptation, Complexity.

DRSP : Dimension Reduction For Similarity Matching And Pruning Of Time Series Data Streams

Similarity matching and join of time series data streams has gained a lot of relevance in today's world that has large streaming data. This process finds wide scale application in the areas of location tracking, sensor networks, object positioning and monitoring to name a few. However, as the size of the data stream increases, the cost involved to retain all the data in order to aid the process of similarity matching also increases. We develop a novel framework to addresses the following objectives. Firstly, Dimension reduction is performed in the preprocessing stage, where large stream data is segmented and reduced into a compact representation such that it retains all the crucial information by a technique called Multi-level Segment Means (MSM). This reduces the space complexity associated with the storage of large time-series data streams. Secondly, it incorporates effective Similarity Matching technique to analyze if the new data objects are symmetric to the existing data stream. And finally, the Pruning Technique that filters out the pseudo data object pairs and join only the relevant pairs. The computational cost for MSM is O(l*ni) and the cost for pruning is O(DRF*wsize*d), where DRF is the Dimension Reduction Factor. We have performed exhaustive experimental trials to show that the proposed framework is both efficient and competent in comparison with earlier works.Comment: 20 pages,8 figures, 6 Table

S-Store: Streaming Meets Transaction Processing

Stream processing addresses the needs of real-time applications. Transaction processing addresses the coordination and safety of short atomic computations. Heretofore, these two modes of operation existed in separate, stove-piped systems. In this work, we attempt to fuse the two computational paradigms in a single system called S-Store. In this way, S-Store can simultaneously accommodate OLTP and streaming applications. We present a simple transaction model for streams that integrates seamlessly with a traditional OLTP system. We chose to build S-Store as an extension of H-Store, an open-source, in-memory, distributed OLTP database system. By implementing S-Store in this way, we can make use of the transaction processing facilities that H-Store already supports, and we can concentrate on the additional implementation features that are needed to support streaming. Similar implementations could be done using other main-memory OLTP platforms. We show that we can actually achieve higher throughput for streaming workloads in S-Store than an equivalent deployment in H-Store alone. We also show how this can be achieved within H-Store with the addition of a modest amount of new functionality. Furthermore, we compare S-Store to two state-of-the-art streaming systems, Spark Streaming and Storm, and show how S-Store matches and sometimes exceeds their performance while providing stronger transactional guarantees