Dimension reduction for systems with slow relaxation

We develop reduced, stochastic models for high dimensional, dissipative dynamical systems that relax very slowly to equilibrium and can encode long term memory. We present a variety of empirical and first principles approaches for model reduction, and build a mathematical framework for analyzing the reduced models. We introduce the notions of universal and asymptotic filters to characterize `optimal' model reductions for sloppy linear models. We illustrate our methods by applying them to the practically important problem of modeling evaporation in oil spills.Comment: 48 Pages, 13 figures. Paper dedicated to the memory of Leo Kadanof

Exploiting Recurring Patterns to Improve Scalability of Parking Availability Prediction Systems

Parking Guidance and Information (PGI) systems aim at supporting drivers in finding suitable parking spaces, also by predicting the availability at driver’s Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA), leveraging information about the general parking availability situation. To do these predictions, most of the proposals in the literature dealing with on-street parking need to train a model for each road segment, with significant scalability issues when deploying a city-wide PGI. By investigating a real dataset we found that on-street parking dynamics show a high temporal auto-correlation. In this paper we present a new processing pipeline that exploits these recurring trends to improve the scalability. The proposal includes two steps to reduce both the number of required models and training examples. The effectiveness of the proposed pipeline has been empirically assessed on a real dataset of on-street parking availability from San Francisco (USA). Results show that the proposal is able to provide parking predictions whose accuracy is comparable to state-of-the-art solutions based on one model per road segment, while requiring only a fraction of training costs, thus being more likely scalable to city-wide scenarios

Tackling 3D ToF Artifacts Through Learning and the FLAT Dataset

Scene motion, multiple reflections, and sensor noise introduce artifacts in the depth reconstruction performed by time-of-flight cameras. We propose a two-stage, deep-learning approach to address all of these sources of artifacts simultaneously. We also introduce FLAT, a synthetic dataset of 2000 ToF measurements that capture all of these nonidealities, and allows to simulate different camera hardware. Using the Kinect 2 camera as a baseline, we show improved reconstruction errors over state-of-the-art methods, on both simulated and real data.Comment: ECCV 201

Real-time extraction of the Madden-Julian oscillation using empirical mode decomposition and statistical forecasting with a VARMA model

A simple guide to the new technique of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in a meteorological-climate forecasting context is presented. A single application of EMD to a time series essentially acts as a local high-pass filter. Hence, successive applications can be used to produce a bandpass filter that is highly efficient at extracting a broadband signal such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The basic EMD method is adapted to minimize end effects, such that it is suitable for use in real time. The EMD process is then used to efficiently extract the MJO signal from gridded time series of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data. A range of statistical models from the general class of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models was then tested for their suitability in forecasting the MJO signal, as isolated by the EMD. A VARMA (5, 1) model was selected and its parameters determined by a maximum likelihood method using 17 yr of OLR data from 1980 to 1996. Forecasts were then made on the remaining independent data from 1998 to 2004. These were made in real time, as only data up to the date the forecast was made were used. The median skill of forecasts was accurate (defined as an anomaly correlation above 0.6) at lead times up to 25 days

Methods for removal of unwanted signals from gravity time-series : comparison using linear techniques complemented with analysis of system dynamics

We thanks the participants of the 35th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission for comments on preliminary results. The authors are grateful to all IGETS contributors, particularly to the station operators and to ISDC/GFZ-Potsdam for providing the original gravity data used in this study. We also thank the developers of ATLANTIDA3.1 and UTide. Part of this work was performed using the ICSMB High Performance Computing Cluster, University of Aberdeen. We also thanks M. Thiel and A. Moura for reviewing a preliminary version and making comments on the methods section and M.A. Ara´ujo for comments on Lyapunov exponents. Funding: A. Valencio is supported by CNPq, Brazil [206246/2014-5]; and received a travel grant from the School of Natural and Computing Sciences, University of Aberdeen [PO2073498], for a presentation including preliminary results.Peer reviewedPostprintPublisher PD