A Data Mining Methodology for Vehicle Crashworthiness Design

This study develops a systematic design methodology based on data mining theory for decision-making in the development of crashworthy vehicles. The new data mining methodology allows the exploration of a large crash simulation dataset to discover the underlying relationships among vehicle crash responses and design variables at multiple levels and to derive design rules based on the whole-vehicle safety requirements to make decisions about component-level and subcomponent-level design. The method can resolve a major issue with existing design approaches related to vehicle crashworthiness: that is, limited abilities to explore information from large datasets, which may hamper decision-making in the design processes. At the component level, two structural design approaches were implemented for detailed component design with the data mining method: namely, a dimension-based approach and a node-based approach to handle structures with regular and irregular shapes, respectively. These two approaches were used to design a thin-walled vehicular structure, the S-shaped beam, against crash loading. A large number of design alternatives were created, and their responses under loading were evaluated by finite element simulations. The design variables and computed responses formed a large design dataset. This dataset was then mined to build a decision tree. Based on the decision tree, the interrelationships among the design parameters were revealed, and design rules were generated to produce a set of good designs. After the data mining, the critical design parameters were identified and the design space was reduced, which can simplify the design process. To partially replace the expensive finite element simulations, a surrogate model was used to model the relationships between design variables and response. Four machine learning algorithms, which can be used for surrogate model development, were compared. Based on the results, Gaussian process regression was determined to be the most suitable technique in the present scenario, and an optimization process was developed to tune the algorithm’s hyperparameters, which govern the model structure and training process. To account for engineering uncertainty in the data mining method, a new decision tree for uncertain data was proposed based on the joint probability in uncertain spaces, and it was implemented to again design the S-beam structure. The findings show that the new decision tree can produce effective decision-making rules for engineering design under uncertainty. To evaluate the new approaches developed in this work, a comprehensive case study was conducted by designing a vehicle system against the frontal crash. A publicly available vehicle model was simplified and validated. Using the newly developed approaches, new component designs in this vehicle were generated and integrated back into the vehicle model so their crash behavior could be simulated. Based on the simulation results, one can conclude that the designs with the new method can outperform the original design in terms of measures of mass, intrusion and peak acceleration. Therefore, the performance of the new design methodology has been confirmed. The current study demonstrates that the new data mining method can be used in vehicle crashworthiness design, and it has the potential to be applied to other complex engineering systems with a large amount of design data

Proactive Assessment of Accident Risk to Improve Safety on a System of Freeways, Research Report 11-15

This report describes the development and evaluation of real-time crash risk-assessment models for four freeway corridors: U.S. Route 101 NB (northbound) and SB (southbound) and Interstate 880 NB and SB. Crash data for these freeway segments for the 16-month period from January 2010 through April 2011 are used to link historical crash occurrences with real-time traffic patterns observed through loop-detector data. \u27The crash risk-assessment models are based on a binary classification approach (crash and non-crash outcomes), with traffic parameters measured at surrounding vehicle detection station (VDS) locations as the independent variables. The analysis techniques used in this study are logistic regression and classification trees. Prior to developing the models, some data-related issues such as data cleaning and aggregation were addressed. The modeling efforts revealed that the turbulence resulting from speed variation is significantly associated with crash risk on the U.S. 101 NB corridor. The models estimated with data from U.S. 101 NB were evaluated on the basis of their classification performance, not only on U.S. 101 NB, but also on the other three freeway segments for transferability assessment. It was found that the predictive model derived from one freeway can be readily applied to other freeways, although the classification performance decreases. The models that transfer best to other roadways were determined to be those that use the least number of VDSs–that is, those that use one upstream or downstream station rather than two or three.\ The classification accuracy of the models is discussed in terms of how the models can be used for real-time crash risk assessment. The models can be applied to developing and testing variable speed limits (VSLs) and ramp-metering strategies that proactively attempt to reduce crash risk

Learning to Fly by Crashing

How do you learn to navigate an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and avoid obstacles? One approach is to use a small dataset collected by human experts: however, high capacity learning algorithms tend to overfit when trained with little data. An alternative is to use simulation. But the gap between simulation and real world remains large especially for perception problems. The reason most research avoids using large-scale real data is the fear of crashes! In this paper, we propose to bite the bullet and collect a dataset of crashes itself! We build a drone whose sole purpose is to crash into objects: it samples naive trajectories and crashes into random objects. We crash our drone 11,500 times to create one of the biggest UAV crash dataset. This dataset captures the different ways in which a UAV can crash. We use all this negative flying data in conjunction with positive data sampled from the same trajectories to learn a simple yet powerful policy for UAV navigation. We show that this simple self-supervised model is quite effective in navigating the UAV even in extremely cluttered environments with dynamic obstacles including humans. For supplementary video see: https://youtu.be/u151hJaGKU

A Crash Risk Assessment Model for Road Curves

A comprehensive model to assess crash risks and reduce driver’s exposure to risks on road curves is still unavailable. We aim to create a model that can assist a driver to negotiate road curves safely. The overall model uses situation awareness, ubiquitous data mining and driver behaviour modelling concepts to assess crash risks on road curves. However, only the risk assessment model, which is part of the overall model, is presented in the paper. Crash risks are assessed using the predictions and a risk assessment scale that is created based on driver behaviours on road curves. This paper identifies the contributing factors from which we assess crash risk level. Five risk levels are defined and the contributing factors for each crash risk level are used to determine risk. The contributing factors are identified from a set of insurance crash records using link analysis. The factors will be compared with the actual factors of the driving context in order to determine the risk level