Data Integration and Predictive Analysis System for Disease Prophylaxis

The goal of the Data Integration and Predictive Analysis System (IPAS) is to enable prediction, analysis, and response management for incidents of infectious diseases. IPAS collects and integrates comprehensive datasets of previous disease incidents and potential influencing factors to facilitate multivariate, predictive analytics of disease patterns, intensity, and timing. IPAS supports comprehensive epidemiological analysis - exploratory spatial and temporal correlation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and intervention analysis. Innovative machine learning and predictive analytical techniques like support vector machines (SVM), decision tree-based random forests, and boosting are used to predict the disease epidemic curves. Predictions are then displayed to stakeholders in a disease situation awareness interface, alongside disease incidents, syndromic and zoonotic details extracted from news sources and medical publications. Data on Influenza Like Illness (ILI) provided by CDC was used to validate the capability of IPAS system, with plans to expand to other illnesses in the future. This paper presents the ILI prediction modeling results as well as IPAS system features

Data Integration and Predictive Analysis System for Disease Prophylaxis: Incorporating Dengue Fever Forecasts

The goal of the Data Integration and Predictive Analysis System (IPAS) is to enable prediction, analysis, and response management for incidents of infectious diseases. IPAS collects and integrates comprehensive datasets of previous disease incidents and potential influencing factors to facilitate multivariate, predictive analysis of disease patterns, intensity, and timing. We have used the IPAS technology to generate successful forecasts for Influenza Like Illness (ILI). In this study, IPAS was expanded to forecast Dengue fever in the cities of San Juan, Puerto Rico and Iquitos, Peru. Data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was processed and used to generate prediction models. Predictions were developed with modern machine learning algorithms, identifying the one-week and four-week forecast of Dengue incidences in each city. Prediction model results are presented along with the features of the IPAS system

A review of evidence on non-invasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) : tests for fetal RHD genotype

This report concentrates on three main areas. First and foremost, we set the background context for RhD NIPD in prenatal care. While the methodology chapter describes how the literature review was carried out and how additional information was collected, the second chapter provides an overview of the key issues associated with pregnancy of RhD negative women. We present background information based on publications from 1997 to 2006 which describe the genetic condition and its prevalence (RhD negativity) in populations, as well as the frequency of cases of sensitisation and HDN (haemolytic disease of the newborn). We also discuss current service provision for RhD negative women in a number of European countries and look at how the NIPD test might be set within current service contexts

The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Ethiopia, and opportunities for integrated control and elimination

Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of chronic parasitic diseases and related conditions that are the most common diseases among the 2·7 billion people globally living on less than US$2 per day. In response to the growing challenge of NTDs, Ethiopia is preparing to launch a NTD Master Plan. The purpose of this review is to underscore the burden of NTDs in Ethiopia, highlight the state of current interventions, and suggest ways forward. Results: This review indicates that NTDs are significant public health problems in Ethiopia. From the analysis reported here, Ethiopia stands out for having the largest number of NTD cases following Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is estimated to have the highest burden of trachoma, podoconiosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the second highest burden in terms of ascariasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis, and the third highest burden of hookworm. Infections such as schistosomiasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis and rabies are also common. A third of Ethiopians are infected with ascariasis, one quarter is infected with trichuriasis and one in eight Ethiopians lives with hookworm or is infected with trachoma. However, despite these high burdens of infection, the control of most NTDs in Ethiopia is in its infancy. In terms of NTD control achievements, Ethiopia reached the leprosy elimination target of 1 case/10,000 population in 1999. No cases of human African trypanosomiasis have been reported since 1984. Guinea worm eradication is in its final phase. The Onchocerciasis Control Program has been making steady progress since 2001. A national blindness survey was conducted in 2006 and the trachoma program has kicked off in some regions. Lymphatic Filariasis, podoconiosis and rabies mapping are underway. Conclusion: Ethiopia bears a significant burden of NTDs compared to other SSA countries. To achieve success in integrated control of NTDs, integrated mapping, rapid scale up of interventions and operational research into co implementation of intervention packages will be crucial

Analysis of Research on the Effects of Improved Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene on the Health of People Living with HIV and AIDS and Programmatic Implications

This paper reviews the existing scientific and programmatic evidence, raises WASH issues in the HIV and AIDS context that need further study to build the evidence base, assesses current WASH guidance through a review of national HIV/AIDS guidelines from five African countries, and identifies programmatic implications that home-based care programs and the WASH sectors must consider

High prevalence of antibodies to human herpesvirus 8 in relatives of patients with classic Kaposi's sarcoma from Sardinia

A survey for antibodies to a recombinant small viral capsid antigen (sVCA) of human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV‐8) was conducted in Sardinia, one of the world's highest incidence areas for classic Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Prevalence of antibodies to HHV‐8 sVCA was greatest in patients with KS (95%), followed by family members (39%) and a Sardinian control population age‐ and sex‐matched to the relatives (11%). Within families, prevalence of antibodies was about equal among spouses, children, and siblings of KS patients, a finding that raises the possibilities of intrafamilial person‐to‐person or vertical transmission. Antibodies were detected 2–3 times more frequently in males than in females. The data show that prevalence of antibodies to HHV‐8 sVCA correlates with the distribution of classic KS in a high‐ incidence area. Clustering of seroprevalence within some families suggests the presence of familial risk factors for active HHV‐8 infection

Host factors and early treatments to restrict paediatric HIV infection and early disease progression

open6noA body of evidence indicates that a threshold level of the virus is required to establish systemic and persistent HIV infection in the host and that this level depends on virus-host interactions. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV is the main source of paediatric HIV infection and occurs when the host's immune system is still developing. Thus, innate resistance and immunity, rather than adaptive immune response, may be the main drivers in restricting the establishment of HIV reservoirs and the long-lived persistence of HIV infection in infants. Genetic variations in HIV co-receptors and their ligands, as well as in Toll-like receptors and defensins, key elements of innate immunity, have been demonstrated to influence the risk of perinatal HIV infection and disease progression in HIV-infected infants. Early treatments with combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) restrict paediatric infection by reducing the level of the transmitted/infecting virus to below the threshold required for the onset of immune response to the virus and also significantly reduce HIV reservoirs. However, despite long periods with no signs and symptoms of HIV infection, all early cART-treated children who later discontinued cART had a rebound of HIV, except for one case in whom a period of viral remission occurred. Which parameters predict viral remission or viral rebound after cART discontinuation? Could early cART prevent rather than just reduce the establishment of viral reservoirs? And, if so, how? Answers to these questions are also important in order to optimise the use of early cART in infants at high risk of HIV infection.openGianesin, Ketty; Petrara, Raffaella; Freguja, Riccardo; Zanchetta, Marisa; Giaquinto, Carlo; DE ROSSI, AnitaGianesin, Ketty; Petrara, Raffaella; Freguja, Riccardo; Zanchetta, Marisa; Giaquinto, Carlo; DE ROSSI, Anit

Assessing the probability of patients reoffending after discharge from low to medium secure forensic mental health services: An inductive prevention paradox

Citizens of developed societies are troubled by those who commit ‘irrational' crimes against the person. Reoffending by ex-patients following their release from secure mental health services triggers particularly intense angst when amplified by media and political scrutiny. Forensic mental health service providers are expected to minimise the occurrence of such transgressions by releasing only those patients who are judged acceptably unlikely to reoffend. However, reoffending probabilities can only be estimated by observing behaviour in secure institutional settings designed specifically to prevent patients from transgressing. The article explores this ‘inductive prevention paradox' which arises when the implementation of measures designed to avoid an adverse event obscures direct observation of what might have happened if prophylaxis had not been attempted. The analysis presented draws on data obtained in 1999–2003 from two qualitative studies in medium to low secure UK institutions, one providing forensic mental health services and the other forensic learning disability services. We explored the views of 56 staff members and 21 patients about risk management in forensic services and undertook additional 25 staff interviews for case studies of the 21 patients. The wider applicability of the inductive prevention paradox will be considered in the Discussion. We argue that the prognostic limitations arising from prevention have been underestimated by policy makers and in official inquiries; and that the prevailing personal risk assessment framework needs to be complemented by greater attention to the environments which patients will be discharged into

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard