Disintegration and Coordination of Forecast Parameters of Socio-Economic Development and the Fuel and Energy Balance of the Region

The scope of strategic planning documents for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the procedure for their development and coordination on interregional and federal levels, the requirements for their content and conjunction with other long- and medium-term territorial programs are now approved by statute. The article presents the theoretical and methodological problems of detailing and interrelation of the region’s socio-economic development scenarios with the forecast parameters of regional energy consumption based on the fuel and energy balance under conditions of incomplete retrospective information. This situation is typical of the market environment, and some restrictions on access to statistical data are irremovable. This fact reduces the opportunity to apply formal and rigorous evaluation methods and the objectivity level of not only the forecast indicators, but also of the current ones. The coordination of these documents is methodologically and practically relevant due to the relative isolation of their formation process, a different level of detailing of the forecast scenarios, and a lack of the required information. The author uses the energy saving and energy efficiency measurement technique that is based on the structural comparison of performance, current and estimated fuel and energy balances, consistent with the region’s socio-economic development forecast. The author is also concerned with the development of this technique for the purpose of a comparative regional energy consumption analysis in retrospective and predictive periods. Since 2007, the author has been involved in practical calculations within the framework of the state order of the Ministry of Energy, Housing and Utilities of the Sverdlovsk Region. The article describes methodological characteristics of the author’s approaches to the development of variants of the fuel and energy balance, taking into account maintaining the official scenarios of socio-economic development of the region, the errors and the incompleteness of statistical data, and the regulatory requirements pertaining to the quality of forecasts

Impact of Derivatives Trading on Emerging Capital Markets: A Note on Expiration Day Effects in India

The impact of expiration of derivatives contracts on the underlying cash market ñ on trading volumes, returns and volatility of returns ñ has been studied in various contexts. We use an AR-GARCH model to analyse the impact of expiration of derivatives contracts on the cash market at the largest stock exchange in India, an important emerging capital market. Our results indicate that trading volumes were significantly higher on expiration days and during the five days leading up to expiration days (“expiration weeks”), compared with nonexpiration days (weeks). We also find significant expiration day effects on daily returns to the market index, and on the volatility of these returns. Finally, our analysis indicates that it might be prudent to undertake analysis of expiration day effects (or other events) using methodologies that model the underlying data generating process, rather than depend on comparison of mean and median alone.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57243/1/wp863 .pd

Assessment Of Response To Heart Failure Therapy: Ventricular Volume Changes Versus Shape Changes

The prolate ellipsoid left ventricular geometry is crucial for its unique contraction and relaxation patterns. Perturbations in optimal cardiac function preceding overt heart failure ensue when this ellipsoid shape assumes a more spherical configuration. This stage of spherical configuration, prior to overt dilatation, is when therapy should be intensified. The dynamic shape changes during the cardiac cycle of systole and diastole in valvular regurgitations when ventricular volumes are within normal range have proved that shape changes are clearly dissociated from volume changes in the early stages. In the scenario of advanced heart failure, several therapeutic interventions have been tried with variable success. These therapies aim at decreasing the ventricular equator, and hence its volume. However, the ventricular shape may still be spherical leading to suboptimal function. The aim in any therapy for heart failure should be therefore to achieve near normal left ventricular anatomy and physiology, with shape assessment as the surrogate marker of therapeutic success

Are Britain’s railways costing too much? Perspectives based on TFP comparisons with British Rail: 1963-2002.

Following the Hatfield accident in October 2000, the cost of running Britain’s railways has increased very sharply, leading to considerable debate about whether current cost levels are reasonable. This paper seeks to inform this debate by assessing post-Hatfield cost and TFP levels (2000/01 to 2001/02) against the historical precedents set by British Rail and the early experience of the newly-privatised industry (1963 to 1999/00). The results show that industry cash costs rose by 47% between 1999/00, the last financial year before Hatfield, and 2001/02 - but, surprisingly, with train operating costs (TOCs and freight operators) accounting for 42% of this growth. The results also show that the post-Hatfield cost spike is unprecedented when compared against historical benchmarks, indicating that recent cost rises cannot simply be explained by the investment cycle or so-called “bow-wave” effects. Furthermore, according to the preferred models, post-Hatfield productivity levels are lower than at any time over the last four decades. Analysis of long-term data on quality and safety measures indicates that an excessive focus on rail safety may offer part of the explanation for the recent cost growth, with the emphasis on safety also resulting in less attention to punctuality and reliability

Special Libraries, December 1975

Volume 66, Issue 12https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1975/1009/thumbnail.jp

New possibilities of calculating the volumes of extracted masses in the surface mining of brown coal

The companies engaged in brown coal mining are looking for ways of managing the mining process as efficiently as possible. The principal mining technology used for brown coal mining in our country, but also in Germany and Poland, are wheel excavators. The evolving GNSS technology has enabled designing and realisation of systems for determining the spatial position of the excavator wheel. The visualisation of the wheel's spatial position and tracking of its real-time motion is performed in the Czech Republic by the program Mine Model developed by the company KVASoftware. One of the most important tasks of mine surveyors is the calculation of the volumes of the extracted masses. The described system performs this task in real-time. This article describes an application that is used to automate volume calculations

What are the main drivers of the Bitcoin price? Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis

Bitcoin has emerged as a fascinating phenomenon of the financial markets. Without any central authority issuing the currency, it has been associated with controversy ever since its popularity and public interest reached high levels. Here, we contribute to the discussion by examining potential drivers of Bitcoin prices ranging from fundamental to speculative and technical sources as well as a potential influence of the Chinese market. The evolution of the relationships is examined in both time and frequency domains utilizing the continuous wavelets framework so that we comment on development of the interconnections in time but we can also distinguish between short-term and long-term connections.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure