A Formal Approach to Cyber-Physical Attacks

We apply formal methods to lay and streamline theoretical foundations to reason about Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) and cyber-physical attacks. We focus on %a formal treatment of both integrity and DoS attacks to sensors and actuators of CPSs, and on the timing aspects of these attacks. Our contributions are threefold: (1) we define a hybrid process calculus to model both CPSs and cyber-physical attacks; (2) we define a threat model of cyber-physical attacks and provide the means to assess attack tolerance/vulnerability with respect to a given attack; (3) we formalise how to estimate the impact of a successful attack on a CPS and investigate possible quantifications of the success chances of an attack. We illustrate definitions and results by means of a non-trivial engineering application

Active Cyber Defense Dynamics Exhibiting Rich Phenomena

The Internet is a man-made complex system under constant attacks (e.g., Advanced Persistent Threats and malwares). It is therefore important to understand the phenomena that can be induced by the interaction between cyber attacks and cyber defenses. In this paper, we explore the rich phenomena that can be exhibited when the defender employs active defense to combat cyber attacks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that shows that {\em active cyber defense dynamics} (or more generally, {\em cybersecurity dynamics}) can exhibit the bifurcation and chaos phenomena. This has profound implications for cyber security measurement and prediction: (i) it is infeasible (or even impossible) to accurately measure and predict cyber security under certain circumstances; (ii) the defender must manipulate the dynamics to avoid such {\em unmanageable situations} in real-life defense operations.Comment: Proceedings of 2015 Symposium on the Science of Security (HotSoS'15

Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

On Cyber Risk Management of Blockchain Networks: A Game Theoretic Approach

Open-access blockchains based on proof-of-work protocols have gained tremendous popularity for their capabilities of providing decentralized tamper-proof ledgers and platforms for data-driven autonomous organization. Nevertheless, the proof-of-work based consensus protocols are vulnerable to cyber-attacks such as double-spending. In this paper, we propose a novel approach of cyber risk management for blockchain-based service. In particular, we adopt the cyber-insurance as an economic tool for neutralizing cyber risks due to attacks in blockchain networks. We consider a blockchain service market, which is composed of the infrastructure provider, the blockchain provider, the cyber-insurer, and the users. The blockchain provider purchases from the infrastructure provider, e.g., a cloud, the computing resources to maintain the blockchain consensus, and then offers blockchain services to the users. The blockchain provider strategizes its investment in the infrastructure and the service price charged to the users, in order to improve the security of the blockchain and thus optimize its profit. Meanwhile, the blockchain provider also purchases a cyber-insurance from the cyber-insurer to protect itself from the potential damage due to the attacks. In return, the cyber-insurer adjusts the insurance premium according to the perceived risk level of the blockchain service. Based on the assumption of rationality for the market entities, we model the interaction among the blockchain provider, the users, and the cyber-insurer as a two-level Stackelberg game. Namely, the blockchain provider and the cyber-insurer lead to set their pricing/investment strategies, and then the users follow to determine their demand of the blockchain service. Specifically, we consider the scenario of double-spending attacks and provide a series of analytical results about the Stackelberg equilibrium in the market game

Cyber Threat Intelligence : Challenges and Opportunities

The ever increasing number of cyber attacks requires the cyber security and forensic specialists to detect, analyze and defend against the cyber threats in almost realtime. In practice, timely dealing with such a large number of attacks is not possible without deeply perusing the attack features and taking corresponding intelligent defensive actions, this in essence defines cyber threat intelligence notion. However, such an intelligence would not be possible without the aid of artificial intelligence, machine learning and advanced data mining techniques to collect, analyse, and interpret cyber attack evidences. In this introductory chapter we first discuss the notion of cyber threat intelligence and its main challenges and opportunities, and then briefly introduce the chapters of the book which either address the identified challenges or present opportunistic solutions to provide threat intelligence.Comment: 5 Page