МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ ДИНАМИКИ КУРСА КРИПТОВАЛЮТ С ПРИМЕНЕНИЕМ ИНСТРУМЕНТОВ СТОХАСТИЧЕСКОГО АНАЛИЗА (НА ПРИМЕРЕ БИТКОИНА)

The accelerated pace of development of the cryptocurrency market and its integration into the system of economic, operational, financial and other processes determines the need for a comprehensive study of this phenomenon. This is particularly relevant because in recent months, at the state level have intensified discussions on the prospects of the legalization of the cryptocurrency market and the possibility of using its tools in the economic activities of economic agents. Despite the sometimes polar views and approaches at the moment among Russian experts regarding the solution to this issue, the development of the crypto-currencies market is extremely high, regardless of its regulation. This determines and actualizes the scientific research in the field of evaluation of the prospects of development of this market, forming the subject of this study in order to predict the possible effects and risks for the national economic system. The purpose of the article is the development of tools of modelling and forecasting the volatility of the cryptocurrency market on the basis of “foreseeing” fluctuations in the value of “digital money” using special models of autoregression (ARMA, ARIMA). The study was based on the application of a class of parametric models. It allowed describing both stationary and non-stationary time series and on this basis to develop a system of prognostic estimates for the prospects of further development of the series under study. With the help of our ARIMA model, which evaluates the parameters of the analyzed time series of the cryptocurrency exchange rate, we developed a system of prognostic assessments for the short term. The authors proved that the application of such models with a high level of reliability predicts future adjustments in the market under study. It leads to a high level of prospects for their use in modelling future parameters of the cryptocurrency market development. This creates a basis for a business to develop adaptive mechanisms for to emerging price index adjustments of “digital money”.Ускоренные темпы развития рынка криптовалюты и его интеграция в систему хозяйственных, операционных, финансовых и других процессов определяют необходимость комплексного изучения данного явления. Особую актуальность этому придает то, что на государственном уровне в последние месяцы активизировались обсуждения относительно перспектив легализации рынка криптовалюты и возможностей использования его инструментов в хозяйственной деятельности экономических агентов. Несмотря на порой полярные взгляды и подходы, сформировавшиеся на текущий момент среди российских экспертов относительно решения данного вопроса, развитие крипторынка происходит крайне высокими темпами вне зависимости от его регулирования. Это обусловливает и актуализирует проведение научных изысканий в области оценки перспектив развития данного рынка, формирующих предмет настоящего исследования с целью предсказания возможных эффектов и рисков для национальной экономической системы. Цель статьи — разработка инструментария, направленного на решение вопросов в части моделирования и прогнозирования волатильности рынка криптовалюты на основе «предвидения» перспективных колебаний стоимости «цифровых денег» с использованием специальных моделей авторегрессии (ARMA, ARIMA). Исследование базируется на использовании класса параметрических моделей, позволяющих описывать как стационарные, так и нестационарные временные ряды и на этой основе разрабатывать систему прогностических оценок относительно перспектив дальнейшего развития исследуемого ряда.При помощи полученной модели ARIMA, оценивающей параметры анализируемого ряда, характеризующего курс криптовалюты, разработана система прогностических оценок на краткосрочный период.Доказано, что использование подобного рода моделей с высоким уровнем достоверности предсказывает будущие корректировки на исследуемом рынке, что обусловливает высокий уровень перспективности их использования при моделировании будущих параметров развития рынка криптовалюты. Это создает основу для выработки механизмов адаптации хозяйствующих субъектов к формирующимся корректировкам ценовых индексов «цифровых денег»

A Systematic Review of Cryptocurrency Scholarship

AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper was to conduct a systemic review of extant cryptocurrency research in order to identify important features of these studies and to provide directions for future cryptocurrency research. Methodology - The Systematic Quantitative Assessment Technique (SQAT) was used to identify and review relevant peer-reviewed journal articles that investigated various facets of cryptocurrency.Findings – 54 journal articles were identified from 12 high-quality databases. The findings of the review revealed that most of the studies took place in Europe, North America and Asia, while Africa has been largely ignored. The main focus of cryptocurrency articles has been on a call for regulation of cryptocurrency without much work done on how to mitigate its vulnerability to the financing of terrorism and as a tool for money laundering. Finally, most cryptocurrency articles adopted a single research method – survey. There is a need for future studies to combine a variety of methods so as to gain additional insight into the issues of cryptocurrency’s vulnerability, risk identification and mitigation, regulation and acceptability.Research limitations - The use of limited but high quality academic databases means that some articles were not considered for this review.Originality/value – This study is one of the few studies to conduct a systematic review on a phenomenon which has the potential to transform the global financial landscape. Keywords – Cryptocurrency, Systematic review, Regulation.JEL Classification – G23, G38

Dirty money: a matter of bacterial survival, adherence, and toxicity

In this study we report the underlying reasons to why bacteria are present on banknotes and coins. Despite the use of credit cards, mobile phone apps, near-field-communication systems, and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins which are replacing the use of hard currencies, cash exchanges still make up a significant means of exchange for a wide range of purchases. The literature is awash with data that highlights that both coins and banknotes are frequently identified as fomites for a wide range of microorganisms. However, most of these publications fail to provide any insight into the extent to which bacteria adhere and persist on money. We treated the various currencies used in this study as microcosms, and the bacterial loading from human hands as the corresponding microbiome. We show that the substrate from which banknotes are produced have a significant influence on both the survival and adherence of bacteria to banknotes. Smooth, polymer surfaces provide a poor means of adherence and survival, while coarser and more fibrous surfaces provide strong bacterial adherence and an environment to survive on. Coins were found to be strongly inhibitory to bacteria with a relatively rapid decline in survival on almost all coin surfaces tested. The inhibitory influence of coins was demonstrated through the use of antimicrobial disks made from coins. Despite the toxic effects of coins on many bacteria, bacteria do have the ability to adapt to the presence of coins in their environment which goes some way to explain the persistent presence of low levels of bacteria on coins in circulatio

Dirty money : a matter of bacterial survival, adherence, and toxicity

In this study we report the underlying reasons to why bacteria are present on banknotes and coins. Despite the use of credit cards, mobile phone apps, near-field-communication systems, and cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins which are replacing the use of hard currencies, cash exchanges still make up a significant means of exchange for a wide range of purchases. The literature is awash with data that highlights that both coins and banknotes are frequently identified as fomites for a wide range of microorganisms. However, most of these publications fail to provide any insight into the extent to which bacteria adhere and persist on money. We treated the various currencies used in this study as microcosms, and the bacterial loading from human hands as the corresponding microbiome. We show that the substrate from which banknotes are produced have a significant influence on both the survival and adherence of bacteria to banknotes. Smooth, polymer surfaces provide a poor means of adherence and survival, while coarser and more fibrous surfaces provide strong bacterial adherence and an environment to survive on. Coins were found to be strongly inhibitory to bacteria with a relatively rapid decline in survival on almost all coin surfaces tested. The inhibitory influence of coins was demonstrated through the use of antimicrobial disks made from coins. Despite the toxic effects of coins on many bacteria, bacteria do have the ability to adapt to the presence of coins in their environment which goes some way to explain the persistent presence of low levels of bacteria on coins in circulation. © 2016 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the names of the Federation University Australia affiliates are is provided in this record*

Криптовалюта, как качественно новый платежный инструмент и перспективы ее интеграции в мировую финансовую систему

Цель работы – проанализировать современные тенденции и состояние международного рынка ведущих криптовалют и оценить возможные перспективы их дальнейшего развития и интеграции в мировую финансовую систему. Результаты исследования. Ретроспективно прослежена история происхождения и становления Биткоина (Bitcoin), рассмотрены некоторые особенности «Блокчейн» («Blockchain»). Проанализированы положительные и отрицательные стороны работы с криптовалютами. Рассмотрена ближайшая по капитализации к Биткоину криптовалюта Эфир (Ethereum) и проанализированы основные различия между ними. На основе проведенного исследования сформирован прогноз о наиболее вероятном направлении развития рынка криптовалют на ближайшее будущее и о возможности их интеграции в мировую финансовую систему. Теоретическое значение исследования. Настоящее исследование и его результаты будут способствовать решению глобальной научной задачи – формированию научно-обоснованного мнения академической науки к новому феномену в экономике – криптовалютам и их роли в мировой финансовой системе. Оригинальность/ценность/научная новизна исследования. Работа является одной из немногих, посвященных новому явлению в экономике – криптовалютам; представлены авторские прогнозы о возможных направлениях дальнейшего развития рынка криптовалют. Перспективы дальнейших исследований. Настоящая работа открывает возможность дальнейших исследований в области рынка криптовалют, его дальнейшего развития и интеграции в мировую финансовую систему. Тип статьи – эмпирическая

Blockchain Technology as an Institution of Property

This paper argues that the practical implementation of blockchain technology can be considered an institution of property similar to legal institutions. Invoking Penner's theory of property and Hegel's system of property rights, and using the example of bitcoin, it is possible to demonstrate that blockchain effectively implements all necessary and sufficient criteria for property without reliance on legal means. Blockchains eliminate the need for a third-party authority to enforce exclusion rights, and provide a system of universal access to knowledge and discoverability about the property rights of all participants and how the system functions. The implications of these findings are that traditional property relations in society could be replaced by or supplemented with blockchain models, and implemented in new domains.Ethics & Philosophy of Technolog

Technical, economic and legal aspects of digital money

U ovom radu se analiziraju tehnički, ekonomski i pravni aspekti digitalnih valuta, njihov odnos sa klasičnim novcem, pregled tržišta, procjena trendova. Dan je pregled njihovih tehničkih specifičnosti kako bi se lakše sagledali sigurnosni aspekti, te njihovog trenutnog pravnog statusa kako bi se mogle postaviti određene pretpostavke glede trendova. Vidljivo je da je ogromna količina transakcija rezultat trgovine digitalnih valuta međusobno, a manji dio posljedica je razmjene dobara. Očito je da je pokretač ovog trenda popularnosti špekulativni val, uzrokovan znatiželjom, željom za profitom, i jednim dijelom i neznanjem, odnosno zanemarivanjem činjenice da su digitalne valute u velikoj mjeri međusobni supstituti. Iako je u sustavu sve transparentno, oni koji prvi ulaze (kreatori) imaju najveću šansu za zaradu ukoliko određena valuta „zaživi“. Naravno da je stanje moguće promijeniti na način prilagodbe pravnog sustava novim okolnostima, i na taj način spriječiti negativnosti a zadržati pozitivne strane digitalnih valuta. Postavljena hipoteza je da u društvu u kojem živimo, a koje je po svojoj prirodi centralizirano i organizirano hijerarhijski, fenomeni poput digitalnih valuta koji iako u tehničkom smislu mogu biti decentralizirano upravljani, ipak ne mogu u potpunosti ispuniti takvu pretpostavku bez odgovarajućeg odgovora institucija, koje upravljaju društvom kreirajući odgovarajuće pravno-ekonomske regulatorne okvire.This paper analyzes the technical, economic and legal aspects of digital currencies, their relationship with classical money, market reviews, and trend estimates. An overview of their technical specifications is provided to help them better understand the security aspects and their current legal status in order to set certain assumptions about trends. It is evident that huge volumes of transactions are the result of a digital currency trading, and a minor part of the result is the exchange of goods. It is obvious that the driving force behind this trend of popularity is the speculative wave, caused by curiosity, desire for profit, and partly by ignorance, or by neglecting the fact that digital currencies are largely mutually substitutable. Although the system is transparent, those who enter first (creators) have the highest chance of earning if a particular currency "comes to life". Of course, the situation can be changed in ways of adjusting the legal system to new circumstances, thus preventing negativity and keeping the positive side of digital currencies. The hypothesis is that in the society in which we live, which is by its nature centralized and hierarchically organized, phenomena such as digital currencies, despite the technical possibilities, can not fully fulfill their task without the proper response of the institutions that manage the society by creating the appropriate legal and economic regulatory frameworks

Cryptocurrency and its forensic significance

Cryptocurrency is a relatively new form of investment. Its concept was first introduced in 2009, and has grown ever since. To this day, there are thousands of cryptocurrencies. Just as other currencies, cryptocurrency can be related to a crime. Ever since its introduction nearly a decade ago, there have been crimes where cryptocurrency are related. According to ACIC’s crime types, cryptocurrency are related to two crime categories: cybercrime, and illicit drugs. There are also other cases where the type of crimes is not listed as a part of ACIC’s. In response to the crimes that have occurred throughout the years, several governments have moved to establish laws regarding cryptocurrency. Some governments chose to ban cryptocurrency completely, whereas others opted for regulation

EKONOMSKA PERSPEKTIVA KRIPTOVALUTA I BLOCKCHAIN TEHNOLOGIJE : Završni rad

Kroz razvoj čovječanstva novac se pojavljivao u različitim oblicima, točnije nekad davno novac nije ni postojao nego su ljudi koristili različite predmete i proizvode koji su imali vrijednost na temelju koje se moglo trgovati. Nakon principa trampe došlo je zlatno doba gdje je novac zamjenjivalo zlato. Nakon perioda zlatnog standarda uslijedio je period tiskanja novca koji je prisutan i u sadašnjici no možda ne i u budućnosti. Pojavom digitalnog novca smanjuje se fizičko tiskanje novca jer je sada moguće trgovati novim načinom. Razvijanjem tehnologije te pojavom modernog doba korištenje kartica kao sredstvo plaćanja postalo je svakodnevnica. Problem se pojavio u tome što je digitalni novac pod vodstvom banke koja ima centralizirani sustav, a prisutna je i kontrola države. Zbog centraliziranog sustava i kontrole države nad novcem nastale su kriptovalute. Predmet ovog rada predstavlja mogućnost upotrebe kriptovaluta i ekonomskih učinaka istih na primjeru Bitcoina, a cilj je rada je utvrditi prikazati uporabu kriptovaluta, sigurnost takvih transakcija, oporezivanje i mogućnosti daljnjeg korištenja kriptovaluta. Lanac blokova odnosno eng. blockchain je baza podataka za spremanje podataka, informacija i dokumenata. Pomoću Blockchain tehnologije omogućena je distribucija digitalne informacije meĎu svim čvorovima koji sudjeluju u sustavu. U Bitcoin sustavu ne postoji središnja banka koja izdaje novac te čuva i obraĎuje transakcije, niti postoji jedinstveni vlasnik Bitcoin mreže. Ključna razlika Bitcoina u odnosu na centralizirane sustave proizlazi iz činjenice da svaki korisnik ima uvid u vlastite transakcije kao i transakcije ostalih sudionika.Through the development of humanity, money appeared in various forms, more precisely, back in time money had never existed, but people used different objects and products that had the value on which they could trade. After the tattered principle came the golden age where money replaced the gold. After the gold standard period, there was a period of money printing that is present in the present and perhaps not in the future. Digital cash is reduced by physical printing because it is now possible to trade in a new way. By developing technology and the emergence of modern times, using cards as a means of payment has become everyday. The problem has arisen in the fact that digital money is under the leadership of a bank that has a centralized system and there is also control of the state. Because of the centralized system and state control over money, cryptovalutes were created. The subject of this paper is the possibility of using cryptovalue and its economic effects on the Bitcoin example, and the aim of the paper is to establish the use of cryptovalue, the security of such transactions, the taxation and the possibility of further use of the cryptovalue. Block chain ie eng. blockchain is a database for storing data, information and documents. Blockchain technology enabled the distribution of digital information across all nodes participating in the system. There is no central bank in the bitcoin system that issues money and keeps and processes transactions, nor does it have a unique owner of the bitcoin network. The key difference between bitcoins and centralized systems derives from the fact that every user has an insight into their own transactions as well as the transactions of other participants

EKONOMSKA PERSPEKTIVA KRIPTOVALUTA I BLOCKCHAIN TEHNOLOGIJE : Završni rad

Kroz razvoj čovječanstva novac se pojavljivao u različitim oblicima, točnije nekad davno novac nije ni postojao nego su ljudi koristili različite predmete i proizvode koji su imali vrijednost na temelju koje se moglo trgovati. Nakon principa trampe došlo je zlatno doba gdje je novac zamjenjivalo zlato. Nakon perioda zlatnog standarda uslijedio je period tiskanja novca koji je prisutan i u sadašnjici no možda ne i u budućnosti. Pojavom digitalnog novca smanjuje se fizičko tiskanje novca jer je sada moguće trgovati novim načinom. Razvijanjem tehnologije te pojavom modernog doba korištenje kartica kao sredstvo plaćanja postalo je svakodnevnica. Problem se pojavio u tome što je digitalni novac pod vodstvom banke koja ima centralizirani sustav, a prisutna je i kontrola države. Zbog centraliziranog sustava i kontrole države nad novcem nastale su kriptovalute. Predmet ovog rada predstavlja mogućnost upotrebe kriptovaluta i ekonomskih učinaka istih na primjeru Bitcoina, a cilj je rada je utvrditi prikazati uporabu kriptovaluta, sigurnost takvih transakcija, oporezivanje i mogućnosti daljnjeg korištenja kriptovaluta. Lanac blokova odnosno eng. blockchain je baza podataka za spremanje podataka, informacija i dokumenata. Pomoću Blockchain tehnologije omogućena je distribucija digitalne informacije meĎu svim čvorovima koji sudjeluju u sustavu. U Bitcoin sustavu ne postoji središnja banka koja izdaje novac te čuva i obraĎuje transakcije, niti postoji jedinstveni vlasnik Bitcoin mreže. Ključna razlika Bitcoina u odnosu na centralizirane sustave proizlazi iz činjenice da svaki korisnik ima uvid u vlastite transakcije kao i transakcije ostalih sudionika.Through the development of humanity, money appeared in various forms, more precisely, back in time money had never existed, but people used different objects and products that had the value on which they could trade. After the tattered principle came the golden age where money replaced the gold. After the gold standard period, there was a period of money printing that is present in the present and perhaps not in the future. Digital cash is reduced by physical printing because it is now possible to trade in a new way. By developing technology and the emergence of modern times, using cards as a means of payment has become everyday. The problem has arisen in the fact that digital money is under the leadership of a bank that has a centralized system and there is also control of the state. Because of the centralized system and state control over money, cryptovalutes were created. The subject of this paper is the possibility of using cryptovalue and its economic effects on the Bitcoin example, and the aim of the paper is to establish the use of cryptovalue, the security of such transactions, the taxation and the possibility of further use of the cryptovalue. Block chain ie eng. blockchain is a database for storing data, information and documents. Blockchain technology enabled the distribution of digital information across all nodes participating in the system. There is no central bank in the bitcoin system that issues money and keeps and processes transactions, nor does it have a unique owner of the bitcoin network. The key difference between bitcoins and centralized systems derives from the fact that every user has an insight into their own transactions as well as the transactions of other participants