On predictability of rare events leveraging social media: a machine learning perspective

Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8% marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the games, allowing for informed bets. We discuss the rationale behind our approach, describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games, and real-time Twitter data collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between Oct. 25th 2014 and Nov. 26th 2014.Comment: 10 pages, 10 tables, 8 figure

Exploring Social Media for Event Attendance

Large popular events are nowadays well reflected in social media fora (e.g. Twitter), where people discuss their interest in participating in the events. In this paper we propose to exploit the content of non-geotagged posts in social media to build machine-learned classifiers able to infer users' attendance of large events in three temporal periods: before, during and after an event. The categories of features used to train the classifier reflect four different dimensions of social media: textual, temporal, social, and multimedia content. We detail the approach followed to design the feature space and report on experiments conducted on two large music festivals in the UK, namely the VFestival and Creamfields events. Our attendance classifier attains very high accuracy with the highest result observed for the Creamfields dataset ~87% accuracy to classify users that will participate in the event

Automated Top View Registration of Broadcast Football Videos

In this paper, we propose a novel method to register football broadcast video frames on the static top view model of the playing surface. The proposed method is fully automatic in contrast to the current state of the art which requires manual initialization of point correspondences between the image and the static model. Automatic registration using existing approaches has been difficult due to the lack of sufficient point correspondences. We investigate an alternate approach exploiting the edge information from the line markings on the field. We formulate the registration problem as a nearest neighbour search over a synthetically generated dictionary of edge map and homography pairs. The synthetic dictionary generation allows us to exhaustively cover a wide variety of camera angles and positions and reduce this problem to a minimal per-frame edge map matching procedure. We show that the per-frame results can be improved in videos using an optimization framework for temporal camera stabilization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by presenting extensive results on a dataset collected from matches of football World Cup 2014

Smart City Development with Urban Transfer Learning

Nowadays, the smart city development levels of different cities are still unbalanced. For a large number of cities which just started development, the governments will face a critical cold-start problem: 'how to develop a new smart city service with limited data?'. To address this problem, transfer learning can be leveraged to accelerate the smart city development, which we term the urban transfer learning paradigm. This article investigates the common process of urban transfer learning, aiming to provide city planners and relevant practitioners with guidelines on how to apply this novel learning paradigm. Our guidelines include common transfer strategies to take, general steps to follow, and case studies in public safety, transportation management, etc. We also summarize a few research opportunities and expect this article can attract more researchers to study urban transfer learning

Hollywood in Homes: Crowdsourcing Data Collection for Activity Understanding

Computer vision has a great potential to help our daily lives by searching for lost keys, watering flowers or reminding us to take a pill. To succeed with such tasks, computer vision methods need to be trained from real and diverse examples of our daily dynamic scenes. While most of such scenes are not particularly exciting, they typically do not appear on YouTube, in movies or TV broadcasts. So how do we collect sufficiently many diverse but boring samples representing our lives? We propose a novel Hollywood in Homes approach to collect such data. Instead of shooting videos in the lab, we ensure diversity by distributing and crowdsourcing the whole process of video creation from script writing to video recording and annotation. Following this procedure we collect a new dataset, Charades, with hundreds of people recording videos in their own homes, acting out casual everyday activities. The dataset is composed of 9,848 annotated videos with an average length of 30 seconds, showing activities of 267 people from three continents. Each video is annotated by multiple free-text descriptions, action labels, action intervals and classes of interacted objects. In total, Charades provides 27,847 video descriptions, 66,500 temporally localized intervals for 157 action classes and 41,104 labels for 46 object classes. Using this rich data, we evaluate and provide baseline results for several tasks including action recognition and automatic description generation. We believe that the realism, diversity, and casual nature of this dataset will present unique challenges and new opportunities for computer vision community