17,273 research outputs found
From individual behaviour to an evaluation of the collective evolution of crowds along footbridges
This paper proposes a crowd dynamic macroscopic model grounded on microscopic
phenomenological observations which are upscaled by means of a formal
mathematical procedure. The actual applicability of the model to real world
problems is tested by considering the pedestrian traffic along footbridges, of
interest for Structural and Transportation Engineering. The genuinely
macroscopic quantitative description of the crowd flow directly matches the
engineering need of bulk results. However, three issues beyond the sole
modelling are of primary importance: the pedestrian inflow conditions, the
numerical approximation of the equations for non trivial footbridge geometries,
and the calibration of the free parameters of the model on the basis of in situ
measurements currently available. These issues are discussed and a solution
strategy is proposed.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures in J. Engrg. Math., 201
Deterministic chaos theory and forecasting in Social Sciences. Contribution to the discussion
Forecasting social phenomena may be hampered in many ways. This is because in nature of these phenomena lies strong and multilateral connection with other social phenomena; but not only â also physical and biological (natural) ones. The content of this publication constitutes presentation of chosen problems of forecasting in social sciences. The attention in the article was focused among others on deterministic chaos theory, on the attempt of its implementation to phenomena from the scope (or from borderline) of social sciences: economy, logistics, science about safety etc. Moreover, one of the threads of ponderation was the attempt to consider whether itâs possible to create so-called final theory. The aim of the publication is to signalize possibilities of taking advantage of seemingly exotic for âpolitical scientistsâ methodology of modeling and explaining phenomena, having its source in exact sciences (in chaos theory) to study social phenomena and processes
Ămile Zolaâs climate history of the Second Empire
This article looks at Ămile Zolaâs novel cycle âLes Rougon-Macquartâ and argues that it describes its subject, the Second Empire, as a warming climate tending toward climate catastrophe. Zolaâs affinity to the notion of climate is shown to be linked to his poetic employment of the concept of âmilieu,â inspired by Hippolyte Taine. Close readings of selected passages from the âRougon-Macquartâ are used to work out the climatic difference between âthe oldâ and âthe new Paris,â and the process of warming that characterises the Second Empire. Octave Mouretâs department store holds a special place in the article, as it is analysed through what the article suggests calling a âmeteorotoposâ: a location of intensified climatic conditions that accounts for an increased interaction between human and non-human actors. The department store is also one of the many sites in the novel cycle that locally prefigure the âglobalâ climate catastrophe of Paris burning, in which the Second Empire perishes.El artĂculo hace una lectura del ciclo de novelas âLes Rougon-Macquartâ de Ămile Zola y sostiene la tesis de que el sujeto al que describe, el Segundo Imperio, puede leerse como un clima en proceso de calentamiento que se dirige hacia una catĂĄstrofe medioambiental. La afinidad de Zola con la nociĂłn de clima se ve expuesta al conectarla con su uso poetolĂłgico del concepto de âmilieuâ, inspirado en Hippolyte Taine. El artĂculo ofrece una lectura en profundidad de ciertos pasajes de las novelas âRougon-Macquartâ para mostrar las diferencias climĂĄticas entre el âviejoâ y el ânuevo ParĂsâ, y el proceso de calentamiento que caracteriza el Segundo Imperio. El gran almacĂ©n de Octave Mouret es analizado, en particular, bajo el concepto de âmeteorotoposâ propuesto en el artĂculo: un lugar de condiciones climĂĄticas intensificadas, un lugar de interacciĂłn aumentada entre actores humanos y no-humanos. El almacĂ©n es uno de varios espacios en el ciclo de novelas en los que ya se señala la catĂĄstrofe climĂĄtica âglobalâ del ParĂs en llamas, momento en que se hunde el Segundo Imperio
Statistical fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times and the effect of social contagion
Mathematical models of pedestrian evacuation and the associated simulation
software have become essential tools for the assessment of the safety of public
facilities and buildings. While a variety of models are now available, their
calibration and test against empirical data are generally restricted to global,
averaged quantities, the statistics compiled from the time series of individual
escapes (" microscopic " statistics) measured in recent experiments are thus
overlooked. In the same spirit, much research has primarily focused on the
average global evacuation time, whereas the whole distribution of evacuation
times over some set of realizations should matter. In the present paper we
propose and discuss the validity of a simple relation between this distribution
and the " microscopic " statistics, which is theoretically valid in the absence
of correlations. To this purpose, we develop a minimal cellular automaton, with
novel features that afford a semi-quantitative reproduction of the experimental
" microscopic " statistics. We then introduce a process of social contagion of
impatient behavior in the model and show that the simple relation under test
may dramatically fail at high contagion strengths, the latter being responsible
for the emergence of strong correlations in the system. We conclude with
comments on the potential practical relevance for safety science of
calculations based on " microscopic " statistics
Should the government provide insurance for catastrophes?
This paper evaluates the need for a government role in insuring natural and man-made catastrophes in the United States. Although insurance markets have been stressed by major natural catastrophes, such as Hurricane Katrina, government involvement in the market for natural catastrophe insurance should be minimized to avoid crowding-out more efficient private market solutions, such as catastrophe bonds. Instead, government should facilitate the development of the private market by reducing regulatory barriers. The National Flood Insurance Program has failed to cover most property owners exposed to floods and is facing severe financial difficulties. The program needs to be drastically revised or replaced by private market alternatives, such as federal "make available" requirements with a federal reinsurance backstop. A federal role may be appropriate to insure against mega-terrorist events. However, any program should be minimally intrusive and carry a positive premium to avoid crowding-out private market alternatives.Insurance, Government
From mindless masses to small groups: Conceptualizing collective behavior in crowd modeling.
Computer simulations are increasingly used to monitor and predict behavior at large crowd events, such as mass gatherings, festivals and evacuations. We critically examine the crowd modeling literature and call for future simulations of crowd behavior to be based more closely on findings from current social psychological research. A systematic review was conducted on the crowd modeling literature (N = 140 articles) to identify the assumptions about crowd behavior that modelers use in their simulations. Articles were coded according to the way in which crowd structure was modeled. It was found that 2 broad types are used: mass approaches and small group approaches. However, neither the mass nor the small group approaches can accurately simulate the large collective behavior that has been found in extensive empirical research on crowd events. We argue that to model crowd behavior realistically, simulations must use methods which allow crowd members to identify with each other, as suggested by self-categorization theory
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