Model of strategy control for delayed panic spread in emergencies

In emergencies similar to virus spreading in an epidemic model, panic can spread in groups, which brings serious bad effects to society. To explore the transmission mechanism and decision-making behavior of panic, a government strategy was proposed in this paper to control the spread of panic. First, based on the SEIR epidemiological model, considering the delay effect between susceptible and exposed individuals and taking the infection rate of panic as a time-varying variable, a SEIR delayed panic spread model was established and the basic regeneration number of the proposed model was calculated. Second, the control strategy was expressed as a state delayed feedback and solved using the exact linearization method of nonlinear control system; the control law for the system was determined, and its stability was proven. The aim was to eradicate panic from the group so that the recovered group tracks the whole group asymptotically. Finally, we simulated the proposed strategy of controlling the spread of panic to illustrate our theoretical results

The Mechanism of Crowd Stampede Based on Case Statistics through SNA Method

Stampede is a concern of urban pubic security management. The current academic research focus is the identification of risk factors of trampling accidents and determination of correlation patterns and accident-causing mechanisms among stampede elements in order to effectively obtain the influencing factors of stampede and clarify the transmission routes of stampede risk factors. Previous index cases were scrutinized and analyzed in 78 typical stampedes from 2010 - 2019 based on "pedestrian-equipment-environment-management" framework, and 17 influencing factors of stampede by adopting a conceptual coding method were obscured. Then, the degree centrality, intermediate centrality and respective weights of the influencing factors were calculated based on the social network analysis (SNA) method. The influencing level of the factors was signified, and the transmission mechanism of risk in the system network was determined. The results reveal that the degree centrality and weight with conspicuous features of over-density of crowds, pedestrian swarming and falling, and insufficient on-site transactions contribute the most. This finding indicates that these factors play a relatively major role in the stampede system. Furthermore, the intermediate centrality of insufficient on-site transactions is the top factor, meaning that this factor has a strong controlling force in the incident system and considerably influences other factors. This study shows that the SNA method is feasible in analyzing the mechanism of stampede incidents, simultaneously addressing the shortcomings of the linear statistical model of factors and providing theoretical support for comprehensive control of crowd risk

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report

TikTok as a Digital Activism Space: Social Justice Under Algorithmic Control

TikTok, a video sharing application, has become the center of viral internet culture. The app has risen in popularity so quickly that scholarly literature investigating its vast societal impact is still nascent. TikTok is not only used to discuss popular culture topics and create trends, but also being utilized as a tool for social justice activism in the United States in the wake of a tumultuous year with major events such as the coronavirus pandemic, a resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement, and the 2020 presidential election. TikTok activism is not without critiques, ranging from concerns of foreign government surveillance and data mining to questions of TikTok’s impact on creator mental health and the effectiveness of digital activism. I argue that despite these critiques, TikTok holds cultural value as an impactful and meaningful tool for social justice activism and entry-level democracy in the United States in the summer of 2020. Using two case studies and data compiled from interviews with content creators themselves, I provide a snapshot of how this app was used by content creators to facilitate grassroots digital social justice campaigns during this historically significant period, and aim to support the legitimacy of this form of digital activism. My intent is to contribute to a better understanding of the process of activism in novel digital spaces and encourage further discussions about TikTok, civic engagement, and digital activism

From being one to being-in-common: political performativity, proxemics, and the joys of provisional unity

In 2013, Erdum Gunduz’s passive "standing man" performance in Istanbul spontaneously attracted thousands of participants, online followers and copyists in public acts of dissent. But exactly what form of new social relations, or more precisely, what kind of collective emancipatory political engagement did this facilitate? This paper examines the consequentialities of performative modes of "being public" through addressing the shift from "being singular" to "being plural" or, more pertinently, "being-in-common" (Nancy 2000). Reflecting on the historical activities of the Dutch Provo, which briefly enacted mayhem in public in the mid-1960s through a set of performative strategies, it considers a disparate set of situated but transitory "improvisational forms of public assembly" (Butler 2015, 22) from passive acts of togetherness to collective viral performative utterances (e.g., We are Charlie 2015; Oh Jeremy Corbyn! 2017). Informed by Lauren Berlant’s (2016) troubling of the ambiguous and contingent nature of collective encounters of "becoming common," this paper acknowledges there is a preponderance of positivist political fantasizing associated with "being in proximity." That said, it concludes that public participative modes of performance that embrace spatial proxemics facilitate the development of alternative subjectivities through affective bodily encounters between strangers. These collective encounters of incipient "commoning" (Stavrides 2016) resonate with what Jeremy Gilbert refers to as the boundlessness, the "infinite relationality" (Gilbert 2014) of the human condition. While collective acts of political performativity may be fugitive in their convergent emancipatory politics, they engender a provisional unity toward being-in-common, a foundational ontological state to which individuals are already predisposed

Crowds

What exactly is a crowd? How do crowds differ from other large gatherings of people? And how do they transform emotions, politics, or faith? In Crowds, contributors draw on their experiences and expertise to reflect on their encounters with crowds. Each chapter examines a particular crowd or conception of crowdedness to provide an analysis of how, when, where—and with whom—crowds form in different contexts, as well as their purpose and the practical effect the experience has on both the participants and their environment. The wide selection of case studies ranges from the crowds that form every year during the Hajj, to New Year celebrations in China, commuters on the Delhi metro, public prayer in Nigeria, online mobs in Bangladesh, and the crowds that have emerged during protest movements in Thailand and Syria. Crowds makes a key contribution to establishing an anthropological theory of crowds and will be an essential read for both students and researchers