CropM - progress overview

Activities in the first 1 ½ years of CropM were related to key issues identified as critical at the beginning of the FACCE MACSUR the knowledge Hub. These include: Model intercomparison,Generation of new data for model improvement, Methods for scaling and model linking, Uncertainty analysis, Building research capacity, Climate scenario data for crop models. The key ambition of CropM has been to develop scientific excellence on methods for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact, adaptation and policy on European crop production, agriculture and food security. Much progress has been made in developing a first shared continental assessment and tool for: A range of important crops, Important crop rotations, Advanced scaling methods, Advanced link to farm and sector models, Novel impact uncertainty assessment and reporting, State-of-the-art scenario construction. A number of concrete studies towards this aim have been launched in CropM workpackages (WPs): WP1-2: Two multi-facetted studies on crop rotation, launched in summer 2013, WP3: comprehensive scaling exercises, launched in March 2013, WP4: Studies on (a) Climate scenario development, (b) impact response surface method and (c) Extremes, launched in summer 2013, WP5: Analysis of transect across Europe with temperature effect (Space for Time). In addition, extended activities related to capacity building including several PhD courses (WP5) workshops (in WPs1-4) and an International Symposium (10-12 Feb, Oslo, Norway) have been organized. Present and future work is and will be focused on framing and advancing crop modelling as integrated part of comprehensive climate risk assessment and modelling of agricultural systems for food security from farm to supra-national level

Soil natural capital in Europe; a framework for state and change assessment

Soils underpin our existence through food production and represent the largest terrestrial carbon store. Understanding soil state-and-change in response to climate and land use change is a major challenge. Our aim is to bridge the science-policy interface by developing a natural capital accounting structure for soil, for example, attempting a mass balance between soil erosion and production, which indicates that barren land, and woody crop areas are most vulnerable to potential soil loss. We test out our approach using earth observation, modelling and ground based sample data from the European Union’s Land Use/Cover Area frame statistical Survey (LUCAS) soil monitoring program. Using land cover change data for 2000–2012 we are able to identify land covers susceptible to change, and the soil resources most at risk. Tree covered soils are associated with the highest carbon stocks, and are on the increase, while areas of arable crops are declining, but artificial surfaces are increasing. The framework developed offers a substantial step forward, demonstrating the development of biophysical soil accounts that can be used in wider socio-economic and policy assessment; initiating the development of an integrated soil monitoring approach called for by the United Nations Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils

Climate risk mapping provides rice growers with adaptation options in the Mekong River Delta

The Mekong River Delta in Vietnam accounts for over half of the country’s domestic #rice production yet is increasingly affected by climate change. Dr. Bui Tan Yen is leading a team to develop an approach known as CS-MAP, a participatory approach of climate risk mapping, which provides farmers with adaptation options

Climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation in temperate grazing systems: a review

Managed temperate grasslands occupy 25% of the world, which is 70% of global agricultural land. These lands are an important source of food for the global population. This review paper examines the impacts of climate change on managed temperate grasslands and grassland-based livestock and effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation options and their interactions. The paper clarifies that moderately elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) enhances photosynthesis, however it may be restiricted by variations in rainfall and temperature, shifts in plant’s growing seasons, and nutrient availability. Different responses of plant functional types and their photosynthetic pathways to the combined effects of climatic change may result in compositional changes in plant communities, while more research is required to clarify the specific responses. We have also considered how other interacting factors, such as a progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) of soils under eCO2, may affect interactions of the animal and the environment and the associated production. In addition to observed and modelled declines in grasslands productivity, changes in forage quality are expected. The health and productivity of grassland-based livestock are expected to decline through direct and indirect effects from climate change. Livestock enterprises are also significant cause of increased global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (about 14.5%), so climate risk-management is partly to develop and apply effective mitigation measures. Overall, our finding indicates complex impact that will vary by region, with more negative than positive impacts. This means that both wins and losses for grassland managers can be expected in different circumstances, thus the analysis of climate change impact required with potential adaptations and mitigation strategies to be developed at local and regional levels