Criticality Analysis of Activity Networks under Interval Uncertainty

Dedicated to the memory of Professor Stefan Chanas - The extended abstract version of this paper has appeared in Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming (CP2005) ("Interval Analysis in Scheduling", Fortin et al. 2005)International audienceThis paper reconsiders the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) scheduling problem when information about task duration is incomplete. We model uncertainty on task durations by intervals. With this problem formulation, our goal is to assert possible and necessary criticality of the different tasks and to compute their possible earliest starting dates, latest starting dates, and floats. This paper combines various results and provides a complete solution to the problem. We present the complexity results of all considered subproblems and efficient algorithms to solve them

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

The Project Scheduling Problem with Non-Deterministic Activities Duration: A Literature Review

Purpose: The goal of this article is to provide an extensive literature review of the models and solution procedures proposed by many researchers interested on the Project Scheduling Problem with nondeterministic activities duration. Design/methodology/approach: This paper presents an exhaustive literature review, identifying the existing models where the activities duration were taken as uncertain or random parameters. In order to get published articles since 1996, was employed the Scopus database. The articles were selected on the basis of reviews of abstracts, methodologies, and conclusions. The results were classified according to following characteristics: year of publication, mathematical representation of the activities duration, solution techniques applied, and type of problem solved. Findings: Genetic Algorithms (GA) was pointed out as the main solution technique employed by researchers, and the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) as the most studied type of problem. On the other hand, the application of new solution techniques, and the possibility of incorporating traditional methods into new PSP variants was presented as research trends. Originality/value: This literature review contents not only a descriptive analysis of the published articles but also a statistical information section in order to examine the state of the research activity carried out in relation to the Project Scheduling Problem with non-deterministic activities duration.Peer Reviewe

Statistical Mechanics and Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Complexity in the Earth System

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Ensemble Inhibition and Excitation in the Human Cortex: an Ising Model Analysis with Uncertainties

The pairwise maximum entropy model, also known as the Ising model, has been widely used to analyze the collective activity of neurons. However, controversy persists in the literature about seemingly inconsistent findings, whose significance is unclear due to lack of reliable error estimates. We therefore develop a method for accurately estimating parameter uncertainty based on random walks in parameter space using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo after the convergence of the main optimization algorithm. We apply our method to the spiking patterns of excitatory and inhibitory neurons recorded with multielectrode arrays in the human temporal cortex during the wake-sleep cycle. Our analysis shows that the Ising model captures neuronal collective behavior much better than the independent model during wakefulness, light sleep, and deep sleep when both excitatory (E) and inhibitory (I) neurons are modeled; ignoring the inhibitory effects of I-neurons dramatically overestimates synchrony among E-neurons. Furthermore, information-theoretic measures reveal that the Ising model explains about 80%-95% of the correlations, depending on sleep state and neuron type. Thermodynamic measures show signatures of criticality, although we take this with a grain of salt as it may be merely a reflection of long-range neural correlations.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figure