1,318 research outputs found
Conditional Transformation Models
The ultimate goal of regression analysis is to obtain information about the
conditional distribution of a response given a set of explanatory variables.
This goal is, however, seldom achieved because most established regression
models only estimate the conditional mean as a function of the explanatory
variables and assume that higher moments are not affected by the regressors.
The underlying reason for such a restriction is the assumption of additivity of
signal and noise. We propose to relax this common assumption in the framework
of transformation models. The novel class of semiparametric regression models
proposed herein allows transformation functions to depend on explanatory
variables. These transformation functions are estimated by regularised
optimisation of scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts, e.g. the continuous
ranked probability score. The corresponding estimated conditional distribution
functions are consistent. Conditional transformation models are potentially
useful for describing possible heteroscedasticity, comparing spatially varying
distributions, identifying extreme events, deriving prediction intervals and
selecting variables beyond mean regression effects. An empirical investigation
based on a heteroscedastic varying coefficient simulation model demonstrates
that semiparametric estimation of conditional distribution functions can be
more beneficial than kernel-based non-parametric approaches or parametric
generalised additive models for location, scale and shape
A Simple Baseline for Travel Time Estimation using Large-Scale Trip Data
The increased availability of large-scale trajectory data around the world
provides rich information for the study of urban dynamics. For example, New
York City Taxi Limousine Commission regularly releases source-destination
information about trips in the taxis they regulate. Taxi data provide
information about traffic patterns, and thus enable the study of urban flow --
what will traffic between two locations look like at a certain date and time in
the future? Existing big data methods try to outdo each other in terms of
complexity and algorithmic sophistication. In the spirit of "big data beats
algorithms", we present a very simple baseline which outperforms
state-of-the-art approaches, including Bing Maps and Baidu Maps (whose APIs
permit large scale experimentation). Such a travel time estimation baseline has
several important uses, such as navigation (fast travel time estimates can
serve as approximate heuristics for A search variants for path finding) and
trip planning (which uses operating hours for popular destinations along with
travel time estimates to create an itinerary).Comment: 12 page
- …