Prediction of claims in export credit finance: a comparison of four machine learning techniques

This study evaluates four machine learning (ML) techniques (Decision Trees (DT), Random Forests (RF), Neural Networks (NN) and Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNN)) on their ability to accurately predict export credit insurance claims. Additionally, we compare the performance of the ML techniques against a simple benchmark (BM) heuristic. The analysis is based on the utilisation of a dataset provided by the Berne Union, which is the most comprehensive collection of export credit insurance data and has been used in only two scientific studies so far. All ML techniques performed relatively well in predicting whether or not claims would be incurred, and, with limitations, in predicting the order of magnitude of the claims. No satisfactory results were achieved predicting actual claim ratios. RF performed significantly better than DT, NN and PNN against all prediction tasks, and most reliably carried their validation performance forward to test performance

DROP: Dimensionality Reduction Optimization for Time Series

Dimensionality reduction is a critical step in scaling machine learning pipelines. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a standard tool for dimensionality reduction, but performing PCA over a full dataset can be prohibitively expensive. As a result, theoretical work has studied the effectiveness of iterative, stochastic PCA methods that operate over data samples. However, termination conditions for stochastic PCA either execute for a predetermined number of iterations, or until convergence of the solution, frequently sampling too many or too few datapoints for end-to-end runtime improvements. We show how accounting for downstream analytics operations during DR via PCA allows stochastic methods to efficiently terminate after operating over small (e.g., 1%) subsamples of input data, reducing whole workload runtime. Leveraging this, we propose DROP, a DR optimizer that enables speedups of up to 5x over Singular-Value-Decomposition-based PCA techniques, and exceeds conventional approaches like FFT and PAA by up to 16x in end-to-end workloads