520 research outputs found
Learning Credal Sum-Product Networks
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are
fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning
probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main
computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable
learning is a powerful new paradigm that attempts to learn distributions that
support efficient probabilistic querying. By leveraging local structure,
representations such as sum-product networks (SPNs) can capture high tree-width
models with many hidden layers, essentially a deep architecture, while still
admitting a range of probabilistic queries to be computable in time polynomial
in the network size. While the progress is impressive, numerous data sources
are incomplete, and in the presence of missing data, structure learning methods
nonetheless revert to single distributions without characterizing the loss in
confidence. In recent work, credal sum-product networks, an imprecise extension
of sum-product networks, were proposed to capture this robustness angle. In
this work, we are interested in how such representations can be learnt and thus
study how the computational machinery underlying tractable learning and
inference can be generalized for imprecise probabilities.Comment: Accepted to AKBC 202
Probabilistic Logic Programming with Beta-Distributed Random Variables
We enable aProbLog---a probabilistic logical programming approach---to reason
in presence of uncertain probabilities represented as Beta-distributed random
variables. We achieve the same performance of state-of-the-art algorithms for
highly specified and engineered domains, while simultaneously we maintain the
flexibility offered by aProbLog in handling complex relational domains. Our
motivation is that faithfully capturing the distribution of probabilities is
necessary to compute an expected utility for effective decision making under
uncertainty: unfortunately, these probability distributions can be highly
uncertain due to sparse data. To understand and accurately manipulate such
probability distributions we need a well-defined theoretical framework that is
provided by the Beta distribution, which specifies a distribution of
probabilities representing all the possible values of a probability when the
exact value is unknown.Comment: Accepted for presentation at AAAI 201
Comparing stochastic design decision belief models : pointwise versus interval probabilities.
Decision support systems can either directly support a product designer or support an agent operating within a multi-agent system (MAS). Stochastic based decision support systems require an underlying belief model that encodes domain knowledge. The underlying supporting belief model has traditionally been a probability distribution function (PDF) which uses pointwise probabilities for all possible outcomes. This can present a challenge during the knowledge elicitation process. To overcome this, it is proposed to test the performance of a credal set belief model. Credal sets (sometimes also referred to as p-boxes) use interval probabilities rather than pointwise probabilities and therefore are more easier to elicit from domain experts. The PDF and credal set belief models are compared using a design domain MAS which is able to learn, and thereby refine, the belief model based on its experience. The outcome of the experiment illustrates that there is no significant difference between the PDF based and credal set based belief models in the performance of the MAS
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