Bayesian networks with imprecise datasets : application to oscillating water column

The Bayesian Network approach is a probabilistic method with an increasing use in the risk assessment of complex systems. It has proven to be a reliable and powerful tool with the flexibility to include different types of data (from experimental data to expert judgement). The incorporation of system reliability methods allows traditional Bayesian networks to work with random variables with discrete and continuous distributions. On the other hand, probabilistic uncertainty comes from the complexity of reality that scientists try to reproduce by setting a controlled experiment, while imprecision is related to the quality of the specific instrument making the measurements. This imprecision or lack of data can be taken into account by the use of intervals and probability boxes as random variables in the network. The resolution of the system reliability problems to deal with these kinds of uncertainties has been carried out adopting Monte Carlo simulations. However, the latter method is computationally expensive preventing from producing a real-time analysis of the system represented by the network. In this work, the line sampling algorithm is used as an effective method to improve the efficiency of the reduction process from enhanced to traditional Bayesian networks. This allows to preserve all the advantages without increasing excessively the computational cost of the analysis. As an application example, a risk assessment of an oscillating water column is carried out using data obtained in the laboratory. The proposed method is run using the multipurpose software OpenCossan

Continuous Improvement Through Knowledge-Guided Analysis in Experience Feedback

Continuous improvement in industrial processes is increasingly a key element of competitiveness for industrial systems. The management of experience feedback in this framework is designed to build, analyze and facilitate the knowledge sharing among problem solving practitioners of an organization in order to improve processes and products achievement. During Problem Solving Processes, the intellectual investment of experts is often considerable and the opportunities for expert knowledge exploitation are numerous: decision making, problem solving under uncertainty, and expert configuration. In this paper, our contribution relates to the structuring of a cognitive experience feedback framework, which allows a flexible exploitation of expert knowledge during Problem Solving Processes and a reuse such collected experience. To that purpose, the proposed approach uses the general principles of root cause analysis for identifying the root causes of problems or events, the conceptual graphs formalism for the semantic conceptualization of the domain vocabulary and the Transferable Belief Model for the fusion of information from different sources. The underlying formal reasoning mechanisms (logic-based semantics) in conceptual graphs enable intelligent information retrieval for the effective exploitation of lessons learned from past projects. An example will illustrate the application of the proposed approach of experience feedback processes formalization in the transport industry sector

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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An industrial blockchain-based multi-criteria decision framework for global freight management in agricultural supply chains

In view of increasing supply chain disruption events, for example the China–United States trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine war, the complexity and dynamicity of global freight management keeps increasing. To build a resilient and sustainable supply chain, industrial practitioners are eager to systematically revamp the freight management decision process related to the selection of carriers, shipping lanes, and third-party logistics service providers. Therefore, this study aims at strengthening decision-making capabilities for global freight management, in which an industrial blockchain-based global freight decision framework (IB-GFDF) is proposed to incorporate consortium blockchain technology with the Bayesian best-worst method. Through the blockchain technology, pairwise comparisons can be conducted over the international freight network in a decentralized and immutable manner, and thus, a secure and commonly agreed-on pairwise comparison dataset is acquired. Subsequently, the pairwise comparison dataset with multi-stakeholder opinions is analyzed using the Bayesian best-worst method in order to prioritize the selection decision criteria related to carriers, shipping lanes, and 3PL service providers for global freight management. To verify the methodological feasibility, a case study of an Australian agricultural supply chain firm was conducted to support the development end-to-end (E2E) supply chain solutions originated from Australia. It was found that port infrastructure, ports of call and communication effectiveness were the major criteria for the selection decision, which can be emphasized in future global freight collaboration. In addition, an immutable and append-only record of pairwise comparisons can be established to support the visibility of time-varying stakeholders’ preferences

Robust Statistical Comparison of Random Variables with Locally Varying Scale of Measurement

Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to exploit the entire information encoded in them properly. We address this problem by considering an order based on (sets of) expectations of random variables mapping into such non-standard spaces. This order contains stochastic dominance and expectation order as extreme cases when no, or respectively perfect, cardinal structure is given. We derive a (regularized) statistical test for our proposed generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, operationalize it by linear optimization, and robustify it by imprecise probability models. Our findings are illustrated with data from multidimensional poverty measurement, finance, and medicine.Comment: Accepted for the 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2023

Advanced Bayesian networks for reliability and risk analysis in geotechnical engineering

The stability and deformation problems of soil have been a research topic of great concern since the past decades. The potential catastrophic events are induced by various complex factors, such as uncertain geotechnical conditions, external environment, and anthropogenic influence, etc. To prevent the occurrence of disasters in geotechnical engineering, the main purpose of this study is to enhance the Bayesian networks (BNs) model for quantifying the uncertainty and predicting the risk level in solving the geotechnical problems. The advanced BNs model is effective for analyzing the geotechnical problems in the poor data environment. The advanced BNs approach proposed in this study is applied to solve the stability of soil slopes problem associated with the specific-site data. When probabilistic models for soil properties are adopted, enhanced BNs approach was adopted to cope with continuous input parameters. On the other hand, Credal networks (CNs), developed on the basis of BNs, are specially used for incomplete input information. In addition, the probabilities of slope failure are also investigated for different evidences. A discretization approach for the enhanced BNs is applied in the case of evidence entering into the continuous nodes. Two examples implemented are to demonstrate the feasibility and predictive effectiveness of the BNs model. The results indicate the enhanced BNs show a precisely low risk for the slope studied. Unlike the BNs, the results of CNs are presented with bounds. The comparison of three different input information reveals the more imprecision in input, the more uncertainty in output. Both of them can provide the useful disaster-induced information for decision-makers. According to the information updating in the models, the position of the water table shows a significant role in the slope failure, which is controlled by the drainage states. Also, it discusses how the different types of BNs contribute to assessing the reliability and risk of real slopes, and how new information could be introduced in the analysis. The proposed models in this study illustrate the advanced BN model is a good diagnosis tool for estimating the risk level of the slope failure. In a follow-up study, the BNs model is developed based on its potential capability for the information updating and importance measure. To reduce the influence of uncertainty, with the proposed BN model, the soil parameters are updated accurately during the excavation process, and besides, the contribution of epistemic uncertainty from geotechnical parameters to the potential disaster can be characterized based on the developed BN model. The results of this study indicate the BNs model is an effective and flexible tool for risk analysis and decision making support in geotechnical engineering

Uncertainty in Engineering

This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners

Identifying the gaps between needs, expectations, and views of different stakeholders related to car-sharing, bike-sharing, and scooter-sharing systems

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen