The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk

Enhancing Operational Flood Detection Solutions through an Integrated Use of Satellite Earth Observations and Numerical Models

Among natural disasters floods are the most common and widespread hazards worldwide (CRED and UNISDR, 2018). Thus, making communities more resilient to flood is a priority, particularly in large flood-prone areas located in emerging countries, because the effects of extreme events severely setback the development process (Wright, 2013). In this context, operational flood preparedness requires novel modeling approaches for a fast delineation of flooding in riverine environments. Starting from a review of advances in the flood modeling domain and a selection of the more suitable open toolsets available in the literature, a new method for the Rapid Estimation of FLood EXtent (REFLEX) at multiple scales (Arcorace et al., 2019) is proposed. The simplified hydraulic modeling adopted in this method consists of a hydro-geomorphological approach based on the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model (Nobre et al., 2015). The hydraulic component of this method employs a simplified version of fluid mechanic equations for natural river channels. The input runoff volume is distributed from channel to hillslope cells of the DEM by using an iterative flood volume optimization based on Manning\u2019s equation. The model also includes a GIS-based method to expand HAND contours across neighbor watersheds in flat areas, particularly useful in flood modeling expansion over coastal zones. REFLEX\u2019s flood modeling has been applied in multiple case studies in both surveyed and ungauged river basins. The development and the implementation of the whole modeling chain have enabled a rapid estimation of flood extent over multiple basins at different scales. When possible, flood modeling results are compared with reference flood hazard maps or with detailed flood simulations. Despite the limitations of the method due to the employed simplified hydraulic modeling approach, obtained results are promising in terms of flood extent and water depth. Given the geomorphological nature of the method, it does not require initial and boundary conditions as it is in traditional 1D/2D hydraulic modeling. Therefore, its usage fits better in data-poor environments or large-scale flood modeling. An extensive employment of this slim method has been adopted by CIMA Research Foundation researchers for flood hazard mapping purposes over multiple African countries. As collateral research, multiple types of Earth observation (EO) data have been employed in the REFLEX modeling chain. Remotely sensed data from the satellites, in fact, are not only a source to obtain input digital terrain models but also to map flooded areas. Thus, in this work, different EO data exploitation methods are used for estimating water extent and surface height. Preliminary results by using Copernicus\u2019s Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-3 radar altimetry data highlighted their potential mainly for model calibration and validation. In conclusion, REFLEX combines the advantages of geomorphological models with the ones of traditional hydraulic modeling to ensure a simplified steady flow computation of flooding in open channels. This work highlights the pros and cons of the method and indicates the way forward for future research in the hydro-geomorphological domain

Evaluation of high quality topographic data for geomorphological and flood impact studies in upland area: North York Moors, UK

A flash flood on 19th June 2005 caused more than one hundred landslides in the North-western North York Moors uplands, UK. This project aims to 1) assess digital elevation models (DEMs) in terms of statistical terrain analysis and 2) explore the sensitivity of a 2D FLOWMAP model response to DEMs input data. A variety of topographic data were acquired, generated and processed. These included high-resolution aerial photographs, Ordnance Survey (OS) DEMs, topographic maps, InSAR DEMs, LiDAR data and ground survey data. These DEMs of different horizontal and vertical resolutions were analysed through key topographic parameters calculated using three different software packages. Key topographic attributes such as slope, aspect, profile curvature and the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) were studied. Results demonstrate that DEMs from different sources or at different resolutions provide different representations of topographic parameters especially in areas where large topographic changes take place. Algorithms used in different packages also had an effect. Degradation in the representation of topographic information is larger between 10 m and 50 m DEMs than between 5 m and 10 m DEMs. Finer resolution and smaller filter size have the same type of impact on slope and aspect. In addition, DEMs at finer horizontal resolutions have smaller minimum profile curvatures and larger maximum values and standard deviations in profile curvature. The TWI is more sensitive to the horizontal resolution than DEM data source and finer DEMs calculate smaller minimum and mean TWI and larger maximum TWI and standard deviations. Modelled hydrological responses are sensitive to both DEM resolution and its data source. Model showed different results when using 5 m LİDAR DEM and 5 m InSAR DEM of the same area, which meant DEM source had impacts on modelling These differences reduced with a larger magnitude flooding. Producing a better representative surface model from the LİDAR data has much larger impact on model response than adjusting a constant roughness coefficient

Flood Prediction and Mitigation in Data-Sparse Environments

In the last three decades many sophisticated tools have been developed that can accurately predict the dynamics of flooding. However, due to the paucity of adequate infrastructure, this technological advancement did not benefit ungauged flood-prone regions in the developing countries in a major way. The overall research theme of this dissertation is to explore the improvement in methodology that is essential for utilising recently developed flood prediction and management tools in the developing world, where ideal model inputs and validation datasets do not exist. This research addresses important issues related to undertaking inundation modelling at different scales, particularly in data-sparse environments. The results indicate that in order to predict dynamics of high magnitude stream flow in data-sparse regions, special attention is required on the choice of the model in relation to the available data and hydraulic characteristics of the event. Adaptations are necessary to create inputs for the models that have been primarily designed for areas with better availability of data. Freely available geospatial information of moderate resolution can often meet the minimum data requirements of hydrological and hydrodynamic models if they are supplemented carefully with limited surveyed/measured information. This thesis also explores the issue of flood mitigation through rainfall-runoff modelling. The purpose of this investigation is to assess the impact of land-use changes at the sub-catchment scale on the overall downstream flood risk. A key component of this study is also quantifying predictive uncertainty in hydrodynamic models based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. Detailed uncertainty assessment of the model outputs indicates that, in spite of using sparse inputs, the model outputs perform at reasonably low levels of uncertainty both spatially and temporally. These findings have the potential to encourage the flood managers and hydrologists in the developing world to use similar data sets for flood management

Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation

NASAs Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASAs Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASAs Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence