Crash dynamics of interdependent networks

The emergence and evolution of real-world systems have been extensively studied in the last few years. However, equally important phenomena are related to the dynamics of systems’ collapse, which has been less explored, especially when they can be cast into interdependent systems. In this paper, we develop a dynamical model that allows scrutinizing the collapse of systems composed of two interdependent networks. Specifically, we explore the dynamics of the system’s collapse under two scenarios: in the first one, the condition for failure should be satisfied for the focal node as well as for its corresponding node in the other network; while in the second one, it is enough that failure of one of the nodes occurs in either of the two networks. We report extensive numerical simulations of the dynamics performed in different setups of interdependent networks, and analyze how the system behavior depends on the previous scenarios as well as on the topology of the interdependent system. Our results can provide valuable insights into the crashing dynamics and evolutionary properties of interdependent complex systems

The fragility of decentralised trustless socio-technical systems

The blockchain technology promises to transform finance, money and even governments. However, analyses of blockchain applicability and robustness typically focus on isolated systems whose actors contribute mainly by running the consensus algorithm. Here, we highlight the importance of considering trustless platforms within the broader ecosystem that includes social and communication networks. As an example, we analyse the flash-crash observed on 21st June 2017 in the Ethereum platform and show that a major phenomenon of social coordination led to a catastrophic cascade of events across several interconnected systems. We propose the concept of “emergent centralisation” to describe situations where a single system becomes critically important for the functioning of the whole ecosystem, and argue that such situations are likely to become more and more frequent in interconnected socio-technical systems. We anticipate that the systemic approach we propose will have implications for future assessments of trustless systems and call for the attention of policy-makers on the fragility of our interconnected and rapidly changing world

Recovery of Interdependent Networks

Recent network research has focused on the cascading failures in a system of interdependent networks and the necessary preconditions for system collapse. An important question that has not been addressed is how to repair a failing system before it suffers total breakdown. Here we introduce a recovery strategy of nodes and develop an analytic and numerical framework for studying the concurrent failure and recovery of a system of interdependent networks based on an efficient and practically reasonable strategy. Our strategy consists of repairing a fraction of failed nodes, with probability of recovery $\gamma$, that are neighbors of the largest connected component of each constituent network. We find that, for a given initial failure of a fraction $1-p$ of nodes, there is a critical probability of recovery above which the cascade is halted and the system fully restores to its initial state and below which the system abruptly collapses. As a consequence we find in the plane $\gamma-p$ of the phase diagram three distinct phases. A phase in which the system never collapses without being restored, another phase in which the recovery strategy avoids the breakdown, and a phase in which even the repairing process cannot avoid the system collapse

Adaptive Regulation in the Amoral Bazaar

Twelfth Oliver Schreiner Memorial Lecture,delivered on 20 October 2010 at the School of Law, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. Many gradual changes in science, law and society are crystallizing to shape a significant transformation in administrative law. The doctrinal framework within which Justice Schreiner himself attempted to modernize how law should regulate government and private economic activity seems from our vantage point to be quite antiquated. In explaining why, my examples will come from the world of financial services, but they could easily be found anywhere in the area of law and regulation. First I will outline the basic premises of prevailing doctrine and its growing shortcomings. Then I will describe developments in our understanding of the social ecologies through which law and regulation is transfused. I will consider some of the implications for the way in which we need to think about future regulation in order to be more effective in this complex world. We are moving from a framework of directive regulation to one that has to become much more adaptive. While my talk will focus on understanding markets as evolutionary social ecologies, and the consequences this has for administrative law and regulation, it is also important that these amoral bazaars be grounded on a foundation of moral aspiraton and integrity. I will therefore conclude with a reminder that we ignore at our peril the urgent responsibility of redeveloping a moral framework within which markets should operate

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda