Conflict and Computation on Wikipedia: a Finite-State Machine Analysis of Editor Interactions

What is the boundary between a vigorous argument and a breakdown of relations? What drives a group of individuals across it? Taking Wikipedia as a test case, we use a hidden Markov model to approximate the computational structure and social grammar of more than a decade of cooperation and conflict among its editors. Across a wide range of pages, we discover a bursty war/peace structure where the systems can become trapped, sometimes for months, in a computational subspace associated with significantly higher levels of conflict-tracking "revert" actions. Distinct patterns of behavior characterize the lower-conflict subspace, including tit-for-tat reversion. While a fraction of the transitions between these subspaces are associated with top-down actions taken by administrators, the effects are weak. Surprisingly, we find no statistical signal that transitions are associated with the appearance of particularly anti-social users, and only weak association with significant news events outside the system. These findings are consistent with transitions being driven by decentralized processes with no clear locus of control. Models of belief revision in the presence of a common resource for information-sharing predict the existence of two distinct phases: a disordered high-conflict phase, and a frozen phase with spontaneously-broken symmetry. The bistability we observe empirically may be a consequence of editor turn-over, which drives the system to a critical point between them.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures. Matches published version. Code for HMM fitting available at http://bit.ly/sfihmm ; time series and derived finite state machines at bit.ly/wiki_hm

Graphical Models in Characterizing the Dependency Relationship in Wireless Networks and Social Networks

Semi-Markov processes have become increasingly important in probability and statistical modeling, which have found applications in traffic analysis, reliability and maintenance, survival analysis, performance evaluation, biology, DNA analysis, risk processes, insurance and finance, earthquake modeling, etc. In the first part of this thesis, our focus is on applying semi-Markov processes to modeling the on-off duty cycles of different nodes in wireless networks. More specifically, we are interested in restoration of statistics of individual occupancy patterns of specific users based on wireless RF observation traces. In particular, we present a novel approach to finding the statistics of several operations, namely down-sampling, superposition and mislabelling, of a discrete time semi-Markov process in terms of the sojourn time distributions and states transition matrix of the resulting process. The resulting process, after those operations, is also a semi-Markov processes or a Markov renewal process. We show that the statistics of the original sequence before the superposition operation of two semi Markov processes can be generally recovered. However the statistics of the original sequence cannot be recovered under the down-sampling operation, namely the probability transition matrix and the sojourn time distribution properties are distorted after the down-sampling. Simulation and numerical results further demonstrate the validity of our theoretical findings. Our results thus provide a more profound understanding on the limitation of applying semi-Markov models in characterizing and learning the dynamics of nodes\u27 activities in wireless networks. In the second portion of the thesis a review is provided about several graphical models that have been widely used in literature recently to characterize the relationships between different users in social networks, the influence of the neighboring nodes in the networks or the semantic similarity in different contexts

On the Inability of Markov Models to Capture Criticality in Human Mobility

We examine the non-Markovian nature of human mobility by exposing the inability of Markov models to capture criticality in human mobility. In particular, the assumed Markovian nature of mobility was used to establish a theoretical upper bound on the predictability of human mobility (expressed as a minimum error probability limit), based on temporally correlated entropy. Since its inception, this bound has been widely used and empirically validated using Markov chains. We show that recurrent-neural architectures can achieve significantly higher predictability, surpassing this widely used upper bound. In order to explain this anomaly, we shed light on several underlying assumptions in previous research works that has resulted in this bias. By evaluating the mobility predictability on real-world datasets, we show that human mobility exhibits scale-invariant long-range correlations, bearing similarity to a power-law decay. This is in contrast to the initial assumption that human mobility follows an exponential decay. This assumption of exponential decay coupled with Lempel-Ziv compression in computing Fano's inequality has led to an inaccurate estimation of the predictability upper bound. We show that this approach inflates the entropy, consequently lowering the upper bound on human mobility predictability. We finally highlight that this approach tends to overlook long-range correlations in human mobility. This explains why recurrent-neural architectures that are designed to handle long-range structural correlations surpass the previously computed upper bound on mobility predictability

PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms

Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases

Footprints of information foragers: Behaviour semantics of visual exploration

Social navigation exploits the knowledge and experience of peer users of information resources. A wide variety of visual–spatial approaches become increasingly popular as a means to optimize information access as well as to foster and sustain a virtual community among geographically distributed users. An information landscape is among the most appealing design options of representing and communicating the essence of distributed information resources to users. A fundamental and challenging issue is how an information landscape can be designed such that it will not only preserve the essence of the underlying information structure, but also accommodate the diversity of individual users. The majority of research in social navigation has been focusing on how to extract useful information from what is in common between users' profiles, their interests and preferences. In this article, we explore the role of modelling sequential behaviour patterns of users in augmenting social navigation in thematic landscapes. In particular, we compare and analyse the trails of individual users in thematic spaces along with their cognitive ability measures. We are interested in whether such trails can provide useful guidance for social navigation if they are embedded in a visual–spatial environment. Furthermore, we are interested in whether such information can help users to learn from each other, for example, from the ones who have been successful in retrieving documents. In this article, we first describe how users' trails in sessions of an experimental study of visual information retrieval can be characterized by Hidden Markov Models. Trails of users with the most successful retrieval performance are used to estimate parameters of such models. Optimal virtual trails generated from the models are visualized and animated as if they were actual trails of individual users in order to highlight behavioural patterns that may foster social navigation. The findings of the research will provide direct input to the design of social navigation systems as well as to enrich theories of social navigation in a wider context. These findings will lead to the further development and consolidation of a tightly coupled paradigm of spatial, semantic and social navigation

Towards a general framework for an observation and knowledge based model of occupant behaviour in office buildings

This paper proposes a new general approach based on Bayesian networks to model the human behaviour. This approach represents human behaviour withprobabilistic cause-effect relations based not only on previous works, but also with conditional probabilities coming either from expert knowledge or deduced from observations. The approach has been used in the co-simulation of building physics and human behaviour in order to assess the CO 2 concentration in an office.Comment: IBPC 2015 Turin , Jun 2015, Turin, Italy. 201

Discovering Functional Communities in Dynamical Networks

Many networks are important because they are substrates for dynamical systems, and their pattern of functional connectivity can itself be dynamic -- they can functionally reorganize, even if their underlying anatomical structure remains fixed. However, the recent rapid progress in discovering the community structure of networks has overwhelmingly focused on that constant anatomical connectivity. In this paper, we lay out the problem of discovering_functional communities_, and describe an approach to doing so. This method combines recent work on measuring information sharing across stochastic networks with an existing and successful community-discovery algorithm for weighted networks. We illustrate it with an application to a large biophysical model of the transition from beta to gamma rhythms in the hippocampus.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Springer "Lecture Notes in Computer Science" style. Forthcoming in the proceedings of the workshop "Statistical Network Analysis: Models, Issues and New Directions", at ICML 2006. Version 2: small clarifications, typo corrections, added referenc