Country-Level Determinants of E-Government Maturity

This paper presents a model of the drivers of e-government maturity. We differentiate maturity from readiness on the basis that the former refers to demonstrated behavior, while the latter provides an idea of a country\u27s potential to achieve e-government, and argue that maturity is a more accurate measure of a country\u27s realized progress. We investigate the prevalence of affluent countries in many e-government rankings using a model where the relationship between GDP and e-government maturity is mediated by ICT infrastructure, human capital, and governance. Using data from authoritative sources, we find that most of the positive influence of GDP on e-government maturity occurs through ICT infrastructure. More mature e-government, however, does not necessarily reflect better governance; in fact our data show a weak but significant negative relationship between e-government maturity and the quality of governance. We suggest plausible explanations for these findings and how the future evolution of e-government might change the observed relationships

The Maturity Structure of Bank Credit: Determinants and Effects on Economic Growth

We investigate a new data set on the maturity of bank credit to the private sector in 74 countries. We show that credit maturity is longer in countries with strong institutions, low inflation, large financial markets, and where banks share information about borrowers. Furthermore, we extend the finance and growth literature by showing that credit maturity matters for economic growth. Economic growth is enhanced in countries where agents have access to long-term financing. Therefore, weak institutions, high inflation and other variables that reduce credit maturity have an impact on economic growth via their influence on credit maturity. The estimated effects are substantial in size. Working Paper 08-1

The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging market economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling “lite” hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding.

The determinants of "domestic" original sin in emerging market economies

This paper explains why domestic debt composition in some emerging economies is risky. To this end, it carries out a systematic analysis of the determinants of the so-called domestic original sin, which refers to the inability of emerging economies to borrow domestically in local currency, at long maturities and fixed interest rates. As such, the latter is a measure of financial vulnerabilities arising from domestic debt composition, which encompasses maturity mismatches, rollover risk and interest payment contingency. The paper builds on a large dataset compiled by the authors from national sources. It finds that domestic original sin is particularly severe when inflation is lofty, the debt service-to-GDP ration high, the slope of the yield curve inverted and the investor base narrow. These results suggest that sound macroeconomic policies, attractive long-term yields and policies aimed at widening the investor base are instrumental to overcome domestic original sin, reduce domestic debt riskiness and tilt its composition towards safer, long-term, unindexed, local currency instrumentsOriginal sin, domestic debt, emerging economies

Cost of sovereign debt and foreign bias in bond allocations

Finance theory suggests that markets where foreign bond portfolio investors overweight their portfolio relative to the prescribed theoretical benchmark should experience higher international risk sharing. Correspondingly, the cost of debt in such markets should be lower compared to markets facing a lower degree of international risk sharing. We empirically examine this prediction using a panel data set of sovereign bond yield spreads and a measure of suboptimal foreign bond portfolio allocations for 50 emerging and ten developed markets. Consistent with theory, our results show higher levels of foreign bond allocations – relative to the theoretical benchmark – are negatively related to the cost of debt. These results have important policy implications as a country’s cost of debt could potentially be lowered by encouraging foreign portfolio investors to hold their optimal allocation

Are regional institutional factors determinants of the capital structure of SMEs?

This paper analyses the role that institutional factors play in explaining differences in the capital structure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across regions belonging to a single country. Specifically, it studies the effect of the development of the financial sector and of the economic situation on leverage of firms. Furthermore, the standard firm-factor determinants of debt, such as firm size, asset structure, profitability, growth, business risk and age are also incorporated. For this empirical study, we use a sample of 638 SMEs representing every Spanish region for the period 1999-2007, and apply the panel data methodology. Our results suggest that the capital structure depends on the regional financial sector and the regional economic situation which implies that institutional factors at regional level help to better explain financing decisions of SMEs

The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

This study analyzes both short-run and long-run determinants of the sovereign spreads in a set of 21 emerging countries over the period 1998-2004 utilizing both daily and monthly data and estimate individual country and panel regressions. Our analysis shows that both domestic and international factors affect spreads, where the most important common determinant of the spreads is found to be the risk appetite of foreign investors. By using an event study methodology we find no evidence of impact of the FOMC announcements on spreads. Finally, we analyze whether news regarding domestic politics and announcements of international organizations play a role in the evolution of spreads. Using the postcrisis data of Turkey, we point out an important effect of such news releases.Bond spreads, emerging markets, Fed announcements, political news

Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area

We study the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the euro area since the introduction of the euro. We show that an aggregate risk factor is a main driver of spreads. This factor also plays an important indirect role for risk spreads through its interaction with the size and structure of national banking sectors. When aggregate risk increases, countries with large banking sectors and low equity ratios in the banking sector experience greater widening in yield spreads, suggesting that financial markets perceive a larger risk that governments will have to rescue banks, increasing public debt and therefore sovereign risk. Moreover, government debt levels and forecasts of future fiscal deficits are also significant determinants of sovereign spreads. --Sovereign bond markets,banking,liquidity,EMU

Institutions, financial markets, and firms'choice of debt maturity

This report examines the maturity of liabilities in firms in thirty developed and developing countries between 1980 and 1991. It finds systematic differences in the use of long-term debt between developed and developing countries, and between small and large firms. The authors attempt to explain the observed cross-country leverage and maturity variations by differences in their legal systems, financial institutions, government subsidy levels, firm characteristics, and in macroeconomic factors, such as the inflation rate and the economy's growth rate. The report provides evidence confirming that firms in developing countries have less long-term debt, even after accounting for their characteristics. This lack of term finance is mainly owing to institutional differences, such as the extent of government subsidies, the different level of development for stock markets and banks, and the differences in the underlying legal infrastructure. The report indicates that while policies that help develop legal and financial infrastructure are effective in increasing firm access to long-term debt, different policies would be necessary to lengthen the debt maturity of large and small firms. Improvements in legal efficacy seem to benefit all firms, although this result is much less significant for the smallest firms, which have limited access to the legal system. Similarly, policies that would help improve the functioning and liquidity of stock markets, would also mostly benefit large firms. In contrast, policies that would lead to improvements in the development of the banking system would improve the access of smaller firms to long-term credit.Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Housing Finance

Determinants of sovereign risk premia for European emerging markets

This paper analyses the determinants of the changes in sovereign bond spreads in emerging European markets before and during the recent global financial crisis. In particular, these determinants are associated with changes in market sentiment and in domestic macroeconomic fundamentals. The model was estimated on panel ata for eight central and eastern European countries between Q1:2000 and Q2:2010, using least squares and controlling for serial correlation. The results show that the dynamics of spreads can be explained by both market sentiment indicators and macroeconomic fundamentals. In particular, the external imbalances did not exert any discernible effect on spreads prior to the crisis, but became increasingly significant as the crisis broke out.sovereign bond spreads, emerging markets, central and eastern Europe, global financial crisis, market sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals