2,607 research outputs found

    Unsupervised neural models for country and political risk analysis

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    This interdisciplinary research project focuses on relevant applications of Knowledge Discovery and Artificial Neural Networks in order to identify and analyze levels of country, business and political risk. Its main goal is to help business decision-makers understand the dynamics within the emerging market countries in which they operate. Most of the neural models applied in this study are defined within the framework of unsupervised learning. They are based on Exploratory Projection Pursuit, Topology Preserving Maps and Curvilinear Component Analysis. Two interesting real data sets are analyzed to empirically probe the robustness of these models. The first case study describes information from a significant sample of Spanish multinational enterprises (MNEs). It analyses data pertaining to such aspects as decisions over the location of subsidiary enterprises in various regions across the world, the importance accorded to such decisions and the driving forces behind them. Through a projection-based analysis, this study reveals a range of different reasons underlying the internationalization strategies of Spanish MNEs and the different goals they pursue. It may be concluded that projection connectionist techniques are of immense assistance in the process of identifying the internationalization strategies of Spanish MNEs, their underlying motives and the goals they pursue. The second case study covers several risk categories that include task policy, security, and political stability among others, and it tracks the scores of different countries all over the world. Interesting conclusions are drawn from the application of several business intelligence solutions based on neural projection models, which support data analysis in the context of country and political risk analysisAlfredo Jimenez Palmero is grateful for the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the FPU programme. This research has been partially supported through the Junta of Castilla and Leon under project BU006A08; the Spanish Ministry of Education and Innovation under project CIT-020000-2008-2 and CIT-020000-2009-12. The authors would also like to thank the vehicle interior manufacturer, Grupo Antolin Ingenieria S.A., under project MAGNO2008-1028.- CENIT Project funded by the Spanish Government

    Hybrid Unsupervised Exploratory Plots: A Case Study of Analysing Foreign Direct Investment

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    The curse of dimensionality has been an open issue for many years and still is, as finding nonobvious and previously unknown patterns in ever-increasing amounts of high-dimensional data is not an easy task. Advancing in descriptive data analysis, the present paper proposes Hybrid Unsupervised Exploratory Plots (HUEPs) as a new visualization technique to combine the outputs of Exploratory Projection Pursuit and Clustering methods in a novel and informative way. As a case study, HUEPs are validated in a real-world context for analysing the internationalization strategy of companies, by taking into account bilateral distance between home and host countries. As a multifaceted concept, distance encompasses multiple dimensions. Together with data from both the countries and the companies, various psychic distances are analysed by means of HUEPs, to gain deep knowledge of the internationalization strategy of large Spanish companies. Informative visualizations are obtained from the analysed dataset, leading to useful business implications and decision making.The work was conducted during Álvaro Herrero’s research stay at KEDGE Business School in Bordeaux (France). Some results of this ongoing research, from the same dataset, have been presented in the 13th International Conference on Soft Computing Models in Industrial and Environmental Applications, as a paper entitled “Visualizing Industrial Development Distance to Better Understand Internationalization of Spanish Companies”

    The divestment-reinvestment sequence in foreign countries: The role of relational vs. transactional ownership

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    In this paper, we claim that ownership is a key determinant of the firms' divestment-reinvestment sequence in a foreign country. Building on the notion of ‘relational vs. transactional ownership’, we distinguish between relational-type firms (namely, family-owned and state-owned firms), and transactional-type firms (privately non-family-owned firms). We argue that relational-type firms are less likely to both divest from, and reinvest in, a given foreign country. In fact, relational owners set a lower performance threshold of intervention than transactional ones; additionally, in order to turn the tide, the former often increase resource injection when subsidiary performance falls below the threshold. Such an escalation of commitment increases sunk costs and further decreases the likelihood of divesting the subsidiary. Moreover, when a divestment occurs, the memory of high sunk costs incurred reduces the propensity to reinvest in the same host country. We test our conceptual framework on a large sample of investments, divestments and subsequent re-entries undertaken in the period 2000–2015 by 602 Italian firms. Our econometric findings corroborate our hypotheses, thus contributing to the literature on the interdependencies between divestment and reinvestment choices, and their relationships with corporate ownership

    The divestment-reinvestment sequence in foreign countries: The role of relational vs. transactional ownership

    Get PDF
    In this paper, we claim that ownership is a key determinant of the firms' divestment-reinvestment sequence in a foreign country. Building on the notion of ‘relational vs. transactional ownership’, we distinguish between relational-type firms (namely, family-owned and state-owned firms), and transactional-type firms (privately non-family-owned firms). We argue that relational-type firms are less likely to both divest from, and reinvest in, a given foreign country. In fact, relational owners set a lower performance threshold of intervention than transactional ones; additionally, in order to turn the tide, the former often increase resource injection when subsidiary performance falls below the threshold. Such an escalation of commitment increases sunk costs and further decreases the likelihood of divesting the subsidiary. Moreover, when a divestment occurs, the memory of high sunk costs incurred reduces the propensity to reinvest in the same host country. We test our conceptual framework on a large sample of investments, divestments and subsequent re-entries undertaken in the period 2000–2015 by 602 Italian firms. Our econometric findings corroborate our hypotheses, thus contributing to the literature on the interdependencies between divestment and reinvestment choices, and their relationships with corporate ownership

    China’s foreign oil policy: genesis, deployment and selected effects

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    China is a rising global power with a growing role and impact on the world’s energy markets as well as on the Earth’s climate system. China pursues its development in an essentially non-confrontational manner, a vision encapsulated by the notion of peaceful rise which is viewed positively in the world’s major capitals. Nevertheless, China’s rapid growth represents a genuine global challenge and raises many questions. How is China dealing with its growing need for imported crude oil? What is the impact of China’s rise on the global oil market, notably in terms of oil price developments? Are Chinese actions on oil markets different from those of other major importers? What opportunities and risks arise as a result of china’s growing role on the global oil market from the viewpoint of other global players? In this report we seek to offer some answers to those questions with a review of China’s developing energy policy, of the actions and revealed preferences of its national oil companies, and of broader economic and geopolitical analyses of the impact of China’s growing oil consumption on other global players.Crude oil, energy security, oil security, China, foreign oil policy

    A proactive and entrepreneurial international market approach: Some evidence in the Portuguese hotel sector

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    Internationalization is a process of such complexity that its explanation, in terms of one single theoretical perspective is difficult. Drawing on a comprehensive multi-case study, this doctoral thesis explores the influence environmental and organizational stimuli as determinants of Portuguese hotel firms’ international engagement. It also proposes to understand the linkage between the antecedent firm motivational stimuli factors with, time of entry, market selection and entry mode strategies. The strategy regarding the epistemological position is via a deductive research approach, where is identify, and tests, in the field, the propositions initially proposed, for further development. A previously used framework was adopted to structure the factors involved, thus ensuring that all comprehensive evidence was obtained through empirical research. Having its foundations in BarneyÂŽs resource-based theory and International Entrepreneurship principles within Dunning's eclectic model determinants, this model sheds light on firmÂŽs resources and competences as determinants factors for the decision to go abroad, pointing the ownership and location advantages as main determinants factors of internationalization strategy decisions. Due to the limited number of the total population, a non-probability purposive sampling method was adopted. This study is mainly based on semi-structured interviews to top level managers, responsible for the internationalization process and supplemented by confirmatory questionnaires, memos, press releases, media articles and in-situ observations. Accordingly, a within and cross-case analysis was applied for the deduction of facts. From the data analysis, it is seen that that the internal competences and the firm’s managerial entrepreneurial profile were important stimuli for the Potuguese hotel grups becoming involved in international activities. Accordingly, it was found that the combination of proactive, internal and external, stimuli drives initially, the Portuguese hotel groups to international market. It was the junction of these proactive stimuli, within an entrepreneurial vision from managers that triggered the process of internationalization. An evolution of the natureÂŽs motivational stimuli was also found given the level of international engagement and the development of market environment. Hence, from an opportunistic market seeker motivation, the Portuguese hotel firms turned to efficiency seeking motivation, less based on tacit competences exploitation and more focused in network and coordination competences, emerging a systematic market exploitation taking into account the new profile of demand and firm growth ambitions in international market. It was also found that, in the early stages of international engagement a positive linkage between the firm proactive stimuli factors and the Portuguese firm international strategies. From the contributions that emerged from the work, stood out, in the theoretical field the achievement of a deeper knowledge, of the motivational, and stimuli factor, on the internationalization process and the importance of managerÂŽs proactive attitude as key determinant of the linkage between the company's competitive advantages and strategies of internationalization. Concerning the practical implications, a better understanding of the key resources and competencies to exploring market opportunities, can be an aid to hotel firms companies that are considering expanding to other markets, thus, preventing the dispersion and improper use of scarce firm assets.A internacionalização Ă© um processo de tal complexidade que a sua explicação Ă© difĂ­cil em termos de uma Ășnica perspetiva teĂłrica. Baseado num estudo multi-caso, esta tese de doutoramento explora a influĂȘncia dos estĂ­mulos ambientais e organizacionais como determinantes do envolvimento das empresas hoteleiras portuguesas no mercado internacional. TambĂ©m propĂ”e compreender a ligação entre os estĂ­mulos motivacionais e as estratĂ©gias relativas ao processo de internacionalização. A abordagem epistemolĂłgica do estudo Ă© maioritariamente dedutiva, onde o pesquisador identifica e testa no campo, as proposiçÔes inicialmente propostas. Assim e em conformidade, foi adotada uma matriz previamente estruturada, garantindo que todas as variĂĄveis do modelo fossem obtidas atravĂ©s de uma pesquisa empĂ­rica. Tendo nos seus fundamentos a Teoria Baseada nos Recursos de Barney, integrando os princĂ­pios do Empreendedorismo Internacional e utilizando as determinantes do modelo eclĂ©tico de Dunning para explicar as estratĂ©gias de internacionalização, este modelo lança luz sobre os recursos e competĂȘncias da empresa como determinantes na decisĂŁo de sair para o estrangeiro, apontando as vantagens de propriedade e de localização, como principais fatores decisivos nas estratĂ©gias de internacionalização. Devido ao nĂșmero limitado da população, foi adotado um mĂ©todo de amostragem nĂŁoprobabilĂ­stico. A recolha de dados, foi baseada em entrevistas semiestruturadas a gestores e responsĂĄveis pelo processo de internacionalização. Posteriormente foi complementada por um questionĂĄrio confirmatĂłrio, memorandos, comunicados, artigos de imprensa e observaçÔes. A estruturação e anĂĄlise dos dados foram obtidas atravĂ©s de uma anĂĄlise caso a caso e de cruzamento de todos os casos, seguindo as questĂ”es de investigação, as dimensĂ”es do estudo e as variĂĄveis do modelo. A partir da anĂĄlise de dados, foi observado que os participantes do estudo identificaram como estĂ­mulos importantes para o envolvimento internacional, as competĂȘncias internas, o perfil do gestor e as oportunidades de mercado. Por conseguinte, verificou-se que a combinação de estĂ­mulos organizacionais e ambientais com uma natureza proactiva motivou os grupos hoteleiros portugueses a se envolverem no mercado internacional. Foi tambĂ©m observado, uma evolução da natureza dos estĂ­mulos motivacionais, consequĂȘncia de um maior envolvimento internacional das empresas hoteleiras e evolução das condiçÔes econĂłmicas do mercado domĂ©stico e internacional. Assim, partindo inicialmente de uma abordagem oportunista ao mercado internacional, as empresas hoteleiras portuguesas passaram a adotar uma abordagem mais sistematizada, tendo em conta a dinĂąmica dos mercados e as suas ambiçÔes de crescimento. Observou-se tambĂ©m que, nas fases iniciais de envolvimento internacional existe uma ligação entre os estĂ­mulos motivacionais e as estratĂ©gias de internacionalização. Das contribuiçÔes teĂłricas do trabalho destacam-se a obtenção de evidĂȘncias sobre a importĂąncia, dos estĂ­mulos motivacionais no processo de internacionalização e da atitude proactiva do gestor como determinante na ligação entre as vantagens competitivas da empresa e as estratĂ©gias de internacionalização. Quanto Ă s implicaçÔes prĂĄticas, e tendo em conta as contingĂȘncias e o desenvolvimento dos mercados, destacam-se a compreensĂŁo e a importĂąncia dos recursos e competĂȘncias das empresas hoteleiras na exploração das oportunidades no mercado internacional, sendo uma mais-valia para as empresas hoteleiras Portuguesas que estĂŁo a considerar expandir-se para outros mercados

    Beyond the fine print: water sector reform and private sector participation. Case study based on La Paz/El Alto PPP concession

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    This dissertation sheds new light upon the complex interplay of factors (social, political and economic) that constrain the enabling environment for water sector reform and private sector participation (PSP) by analysing of the process of policy reform and the nature of stakeholder engagement in the provision of water and sanitation. Findings are based on an in depth case study of the La Paz/El Alto concession arrangement from 1997–2005, when the contract was abruptly terminated. The analysis is encompassed within the New Institutional Economics conceptual framework as it provides a holistic application of economic analysis on the role of incentives, institutions and behaviour, providing a common link in understanding between traditional economists and other social scientists, allowing for greater reflection as to the ways socio-political, cultural and historical contexts determine the behaviour of those involved in the water reform process. The delicate nature of the water sector provides evidence of how under certain institutional constraints, and where optimum accumulation of information is virtually impossible, human behaviour can become motivated by a volatile set of preferences, making it particularly difficult for policy-makers to manage the reform process and accurately predict reform outcomes. Research findings conclude that the difficulties policy-makers faced in reforming the water sector and introducing PSP in the case of La Paz/El Alto, stemmed from three fundamental factors: (i) The reform process did not consider how race-based socio-political and economic hierarchies, endemic in Bolivian history and culture, would influence intended outcomes; (ii) stakeholders underestimated the transaction costs involved in the process of reform and PPP implementation due to information and bargaining asymmetries; (iii) systemic barriers, beyond the control of stakeholders involved, constrained the space for partnership innovation and flexibility in the provision of water and sanitation, debilitating the possibilities for future collaboration between civil society, government and the private sector

    Developing Degrees: An Exploratory Analysis of Laureate International Universities\u27 21st Century Entry into Mexico and Ecuador

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    Laureate International Universities (LIU) embodies an emerging international phenomenon in which a multinational corporation (MNC) functions as a holding company that acquires and operates brick-and-mortar higher education institutions in a for-profit model; each individual portfolio institution granting degrees under its own name with any potential profits from each institutions operations flowing to the holding company after local expenses are paid. Organizational institutions theory outlines the desire to legitimize and achieve success prompts organizations to seek legitimating scripts beyond mere market dynamics; those factors and operating conditions that allow organizations to carry out their activities without undue scrutiny by members of society. This study employs a comparative sociological methodology to analyze patterns in the way LIU has sought operational legitimacy as a new social object in two nations in Latin America, specifically Mexico and Ecuador. Forty interviews with professional, government, and alumni participants in Mexico and Ecuador were conducted. Print and digital archival material and statistical data from UNESCO, the World Bank, and the governing education divisions of Mexico and Ecuador were also analyzed. Striking similarities were discovered in LIU\u27s legitimation patterns in the cases, despite the countries embracing different development policies over the study period between 2000 — 2011. Three factors are vital to explaining LIU\u27s legitimation in the cases analyzed: (1) acquiring and retaining state regulatory authority through purchasing existing local institutions; (2) advertising techniques that emphasize progressive norms and global connectivity, and (3) the transcendent global convergence of credentialing as a social norm which provides an uniquely conducive environment for this organization\u27s activities across varied geopolitical contexts

    Technology Transfer in Pacific Economic Development: Papers and Proceedings of The Sixth Pacific Trade and Development Conference held by National Science and Technology Council in Mexico City, July 197 4

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    The Sixth Pacific Trade and Development Conference was held in Mexico City from 15 to 20 July, 1974 to search for a new objective for the conference series. The first conference in this series was held in Tokyo in January 1968 ; the second in Hawaii in January 1969 ; the third in Sydney in August 1970; the fourth in Ottawa in October 1971; and the fifth again in Tokyo in January 1973. The conference started with a very simple premise. That is we people in the extended Pacific area, including Latin America and Asian developing countries, should pay keen attention to economic devel opment and trade expansion among our neighbours who have huge potential for future development. This potential has tended to be neglected in the past. Fortunately, since our conference series started, the Pacific trade and development studies have established their influence upon trade and development policies in the Pacific-Latin American-Asian region. We held this year's Conference for the first time outside the more advanced Pacific countries, in Mexico City, one of the most thriving centers in the less industrially developed nations. The Pacific trade and development studies have always to search for a new direction, especially in the present uncertainties in the international monetary and trading system after the oil crisis. The new direction should be the acceleration of modernization and industrialization of developing economies, including the oil producing areas. Technology transfer, foreign direct investment, trade, and even oil money will play a critical role if they are utilized appropriately. This book contains the papers and, proceedings of the Sixth Conference, discussion at which focussed on those important issues. "The role of technology transfer in Pacific economic development," the theme we chose for the Mexican conference, was a topic of wide interest in Latin America and a large number of experts partici pated in the conference from various parts of that region. Unfortu~ nately the book was not able to include two or. three papers for either they were written in Spanish or not presented to but came after the conference. Also we missed comments from some papers, and the summary of discussion for all papers mainly due to language difficulties. We have to apologize to those contr ibutors. However, all of them will be taken up in a Spanish- language version of this book which will be published somewhat later by the Mexican Organizing Committee. Finally, we are deeply grateful to all the participants, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia and El Colegio de Mexico who made possible the success of the conference. We are also indebted to the Government and business circles in Mexico and the Asia Foundation for their financial support to the conference

    Relatedness, National Boarders, Perceptions of Firms and the Value of Their innovations

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    The main goal of this dissertation is to better understand how external corporate stakeholder perceptions of relatedness affect important outcomes for companies. In pursuit of this goal, I apply the lens of category studies. Categories not only help audiences to distinguish between members of different categories, they also convey patterns of relatedness. In turn, this may have implications for understanding how audiences search, what they attend to, and how the members are ultimately valued. In the first chapter, I apply incites from social psychology to show how the nationality of audience members affects the way that they cognitively group objects into similar categories. I find that the geographic location of stock market analysts affect the degree to which they will revise their earnings estimates for a given company in the wake of an earnings miss by another firm in the same industry. Foreign analysts revise their earnings estimates downward more so than do local analysts, suggesting that foreign analysts ascribe the earnings miss more broadly and tend to lump companies located in the same country into larger groups than do local analysts. In the second chapter, I demonstrate that the structure of inter-category relationships can have consequential effects for the members of a focal category. Leveraging an experimental-like design, I study the outcomes of nanotechnology patents and the pattern of forward citations across multiple patent jurisdictions. I find that members of technology categories with many close category \u27neighbors\u27 are more broadly cited than members of categories with few category \u27neighbors.’ My findings highlight how category embeddedness and category system structure affect the outcomes of category members as well as the role that classification plays in the valuation of innovation. In the third chapter, I propose a novel and dynamic measure of corporate similarity that is constructed from the two-mode analyst and company coverage network. The approach creates a fine-grained continuous measure of company similarity that can be used as an alternative or supplement to existing static industry classification systems. I demonstrate the value of this new measure in the context of predicting financial market responses to merger and acquisition deals
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