Effects and Propositions

The quantum logical and quantum information-theoretic traditions have exerted an especially powerful influence on Bub's thinking about the conceptual foundations of quantum mechanics. This paper discusses both the quantum logical and information-theoretic traditions from the point of view of their representational frameworks. I argue that it is at this level, at the level of its framework, that the quantum logical tradition has retained its centrality to Bub's thought. It is further argued that there is implicit in the quantum information-theoretic tradition a set of ideas that mark a genuinely new alternative to the framework of quantum logic. These ideas are of considerable interest for the philosophy of quantum mechanics, a claim which I defend with an extended discussion of their application to our understanding of the philosophical significance of the no hidden variable theorem of Kochen and Specker.Comment: Presented to the 2007 conference, New Directions in the Foundations of Physic

Counterfactual thinking in cooperation dynamics

Counterfactual Thinking is a human cognitive ability studied in a wide variety of domains. It captures the process of reasoning about a past event that did not occur, namely what would have happened had this event occurred, or, otherwise, to reason about an event that did occur but what would ensue had it not. Given the wide cognitive empowerment of counterfactual reasoning in the human individual, the question arises of how the presence of individuals with this capability may improve cooperation in populations of self-regarding individuals. Here we propose a mathematical model, grounded on Evolutionary Game Theory, to examine the population dynamics emerging from the interplay between counterfactual thinking and social learning (i.e., individuals that learn from the actions and success of others) whenever the individuals in the population face a collective dilemma. Our results suggest that counterfactual reasoning fosters coordination in collective action problems occurring in large populations, and has a limited impact on cooperation dilemmas in which coordination is not required. Moreover, we show that a small prevalence of individuals resorting to counterfactual thinking is enough to nudge an entire population towards highly cooperative standards.Comment: 18 page

Alfredo Deaño and the non-accidental transition of thought

If the cultural variations concerning knowledge and research on ordinary reasoning are part of cultural history, what kind of historiographical method is needed in order to present the history of its evolution? This paper proposes to introduce the study of theories of reasoning into a historiographic perspective because we assume that the answer to the previous question does not only depend of internal controversies about how reasoning performance is explained by current theories of reasoning. [...

The Value of Weather Event Science for Pending Climate Policy Decisions

This essay furthers debate about the burgeoning science of Probabilistic Event Attribution (PEA) and its relevance to imminent climate policy decisions. It critically examines Allen Thompson and Friederike Otto’s recent arguments concerning the implications of PEA studies for how the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) policy framework should be revised during the 2016 ‘review and decision.’ I show that their contention that PEA studies cannot usefully inform decision-making about adaptation policies and strategies is misguided and argue that the current UNFCCC treaty, the “Paris Agreement,” supersedes their proposed revision

Reason Maintenance - State of the Art

This paper describes state of the art in reason maintenance with a focus on its future usage in the KiWi project. To give a bigger picture of the field, it also mentions closely related issues such as non-monotonic logic and paraconsistency. The paper is organized as follows: first, two motivating scenarios referring to semantic wikis are presented which are then used to introduce the different reason maintenance techniques

Medical Diagnosis and Actual Causation

I suggest that some diagnoses can be seen as causal ex-planations based on \u201cparticulars\u201d \u2013 instead of regularities \u2013 and on the notion of actual causation. Diagnoses based on case-based rea-soning provide a particularly vivid example

Conditional Degree of Belief

This paper articulates and defends a suppositional interpretation of conditional degree of belief. First, I focus on a type of probability that has a crucial role in Bayesian inference: conditional degrees of belief in an observation, given a statistical hypothesis. The suppositional analysis explains, unlike other accounts, why these degrees of belief track the corresponding probability density functions. Then, I extend the suppositional analysis and argue that all probabilities in Bayesian inference should be understood suppositionally and model-relative. This sheds a new and illuminating light on chance-credence coordination principles, the relationship between Bayesian models and their target system, and the epistemic significance of Bayes' Theorem