Preliminary assessment of systems for deriving liquid and gaseous fuels from waste or grown organics

The overall feasibility of the chemical conversion of waste or grown organic matter to fuel is examined from the technical, economic, and social viewpoints. The energy contribution from a system that uses waste and grown organic feedstocks is estimated as 4 to 12 percent of our current energy consumption. Estimates of today's market prices for these fuels are included. Economic and social issues are as important as technology in determining the feasibility of such a proposal. An orderly program of development and demonstration is recommended to provide reliable data for an assessment of the viability of the proposal

National economic and environmental development study: the case of Pakistan

Pakistan is a developing country bracing for significant economic growth and development in the future. In this regards, the country is poised to shift towards an increased reliance upon its indigenous coal reserves to fuel its development in the 2010-2050 time frame. Although this will significantly raise its projected greenhouse gas emissions, the present study has identified numerous measures which can be taken to shift this future development pathway on to a lower carbon and more climate friendly trajectory. The country, however, requires this shift to be supported through the access and transfer of appropriate technologies and finance. The ensuing “additional” financial needs for mitigation for a cleaner development future range from between U$8 billion and U$ 17 billion. These have been identified in this report along with a potential of 18% and 40% reduction of emissions between below “Business As Usual” scenario which is possible with a shift towards cleaner technologies. These clean development investments, however, need to be made in the near future as otherwise the energy future of Pakistan will get locked into the lower cost - higher carbon options. This mitigation costing estimate will, however, need to be refined and focused further as Pakistan identifies not only the specific technologies that it needs for this low carbon shift (through carrying out the “Technology Needs Assessment”) but also the programmatic, sectoral as well as project specific NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) in the near future. Pakistan is also highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and faces immense associated challenges in coping with its unavoidable effects and economic implications. This study has highlighted the need to treat adaptation to climate change as a primary development issue for Pakistan. The potential impacts and sectors demanding prioritized adaptation have been identified in this study and the, associated, costs of adaptation have been estimated utilizing three diverse modeling methodologies – using GDP projections, per-capita figures and “flood” disaster modeling. The resulting adaptation cost figures range from between U$6 billion to U$ 14 billion/year that Pakistan would have to spend at an average in the 2010-2050 time frame to cope with the effects of climate change while it will be also left to, unavoidably, bear significant “residual damage” costs induced due to climate change. The top-down adaptation costing analysis applied in this report is aimed at providing a reasonable first approximation that can be refined over time as relevant and reliable local data becomes available especially from research focusing on sector specific adaptation costing. Most significantly the report reinforces the fact that the issue of climate change is, thus, not only an environmental issue challenging the country but an issue which will directly impinge upon the country’s economic, financial and development future as it deals with its extreme vulnerability to climate change. The significant climate costs identified in this study inextricably shows that climate change is an issue which Pakistan can ill afford to ignore in the future. Finally the report has identified the major financing options available for climate change related activities in Pakistan as well as the significant unilateral climate resources, U$ 4.5 billion in 2007-2009 alone, that the country is already committing to climate change without getting any global recognition for its efforts. In future, global financing will need to augment and leverage such national financial commitments. Also, as climate finance becomes increasingly available at the global level, it would be essential to enact appropriate assimilative national capacity in Pakistan to direct this finance towards nationally identified priorities as well as channelize it transparently and efficiently through consolidated financial mechanisms like a National Climate Change Fund which has been proposed through this study.climate change Pakistan

Economic optimization of forest biomass processing and transport

An economic analysis and optimization of forest biomass processing and transportation at the operational level is presented. Renewable sources of energy have captured the interest of public and private institutions to develop cost-effective supply chains to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The production of energy from forest harvest residues constitutes an opportunity to develop a supply chain for producing heat, electricity and liquid fuels from renewable materials. Special interest has been directed to the production of aviation fuel given the characteristics of the commercial aircraft technology that cannot use other renewable sources such as electricity, nuclear power or wind turbines. In economic terms, the production of energy from forest harvest residues at actual market prices requires efficient cost management and planning in order to compete with traditional fossil fuel supply chains. Efficient cost management requires an understanding of the operational stages in order to propose alternatives to improve the planning process, reduce costs, and increase the chance of success of this emerging supply chain. The main goal of this study is to improve cost-efficiency of an emerging energy supply chain from forest harvest residues. A general objective is the economic optimization of forest biomass processing and transportation at the operational level. We developed a model and frame-work to analyze the economics of forest biomass processing and transportation using mixed integer programming (MIP), simulation, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and forest operation analysis. We developed an economic costing model that accounts for the cost of machinery and truck waiting time. The study is primarily focused on difficult access steep-land regions although it can also be applied to areas with less restricted road access. A stochastic discrete-event simulation model was developed to estimate cost management strategies to improve economics of mobile chipping operations and analyze the effect of uncertainty in this type of operation. The model was successful in predicting productivity of actual forest biomass recovery operations. The model also allowed analyzing the economic effect of truck-machine interactions when using mobile equipment to process the forest residues With stationary processing equipment, the economic effect of truck-machine interactions on closely coupled operations was analyzed through a simulation model. It was demonstrated that truck-machine interactions affect machine utilization rates and, thus, the economics of the operation. Truck-machine interaction must be accounted for when analyzing forest recovery operations to avoid inaccurate cost estimation. Finally a mathematical solution procedure based on mixed integer programming, GIS and simulation was developed to support planning decisions in forest biomass recovery operations, including economic modeling of the effect of waiting times. The solution procedure was incorporated in the decision support system, Residue Evaluation and Network Optimization (RENO) developed in JAVA platform. The decision support system was demonstrated to be an accurate and effective tool to estimate the most cost effective processing machinery and transport configuration given road access, material physical properties, spatial location of the residue piles and accounting for truck-machine interactions. Additionally, an Ant Colony heuristic is included in the model to bring support to the MIP branch and bound solution method by providing an initial solution for objective function. The model is also flexible to user changes to allow the analyst to analyze the sensitivity of the results to main production variables

MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING FOR RESOURCE POLICY APPRAISAL UNDER MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES

Mathematical programming is one technique that can be used for resource policy appraisal. Multiple objectives are usually involved in resource policy considerations. This paper discusses issues regarding the use of mathematical programming techniques for the multiobjective resource policy arena. Theoretical models are introduced with a separation called for between producer response models and policy maker models due to a disparity of objectives. The paper draws on the literature citing cases where producer level models have been utilized to simulate the policy outcome implications of alternative policies.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Quality pallet-part yields from red oak cants

The primary objective of this study was to determine yield and quality of pallet-parts from southern red oak cants. A second objective was to evaluate crosscutting methods used in producing pallet lumber. Hopefully, by fulfilling these objectives the following questions could be answered: (1) what are common cants worth in terms of common grades of lumber; (2) whether these cants could produce parts for a pallet selling in the $5-6 price range; and (3) which of two crosscutting methods, gang or select, should be used in resawing the lumber to palletpart material. The cants were obtained from a stratified sample of 114 red oak logs that were numbered and graded, using standard U.S. Forest Service factory log grades. Each 4- by 6-inch cant was then sawn from the heart center of each log and later resawn into pallet lumber. The lumber was then graded, according to specifications of National Hardwood Lumber Manufacturers\u27 lumber grades, and simulation of gang and select crosscutting methods was used to produce pallet-parts. Using suggested grading rules of the U.S. Forest Service, the resulting 40- and 48-inch pallet-parts were then regraded and grouped into two quality classes. Recovery yields of quality-class parts for gang and select cutting methods were then recorded by lumber grades and cant lengths. Based upon three pallet styles, simulated pallet construction was conducted. Analysis of the data showed that the cant-lumber grade distribution from grade one, two, and three logs was quite variable, especially in the one and two common lumber grades. Three common lumber yields were fairly consistent, amounting to greater than two-thirds of the cant lumber yield. Both pallet-part yields and quality class ratios were significantly affected by lumber grades. Higher lumber grades (one and two common) not only produced greater total yields but also a greater ratio of quality class one material. The length of the cant also had a profound effect on both the yield and distribution of quality pallet-part material. Of the three cant lengths tested (8, 10, and 12 foot), only 12-foot cants provided a positive economic return. When cant monetary yields and values were com-pared to net lumber values, 12-foot cant values were comparable to the returns from the use of 3A lumber. Based on the monetary yields and values of raw material sources, two common lumber had the greatest dollar return. Analysis showed that the select crosscutting method in all cant lengths and in the two common and 3A lumber grades could significantly improve or increase quality pallet—part yields. Greater increases from the select method were noted in cants of longer length

HARVESTING SMALL TREES AND FOREST RESIDUES

Eight countries collaborated and shared technical information on the harvesting of small trees and forest residues in a three year program. Proceedings and reports from workshops and reviews are summarized in a review of activities and harvesting systems of the participating countries. Four databases were developed for harvesting and transportation of these materials

A MULTIDISCIPLINARY TECHNO-ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR VALIDATING LONG-TERM ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF BIOREFINING PROCESSES

Increasing demand for energy and transportation fuel has motivated researchers all around the world to explore alternatives for a long-term sustainable source of energy. Biomass is one such renewable resource that can be converted into various marketable products by the process of biorefining. Currently, research is taking strides in developing conversion techniques for producing biofuels from multiple bio-based feedstocks. However, the greatest concern with emerging processes is the long-term viability as a sustainable source of energy. Hence, a framework is required that can incorporate novel and existing processes to validate their economic, environmental and social potential in satisfying present energy demands, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own energy needs. This research focuses on developing a framework that can incorporate fundamental research to determine its long-term viability, simultaneously providing critical techno-economic and decision support information to various stakeholders. This contribution links various simulation and optimization models to create a decision support tool, to estimate the viability of biorefining options in any given region. Multiple disciplines from the Process Systems Engineering and Supply Chain Management are integrated to develop the comprehensive framework. Process simulation models for thermochemical and biochemical processes are developed and optimized using Aspen Engineering Suite. Finally, for validation, the framework is analyzed by combining the outcomes of the process simulation with the supply chain models. The developed techno-economic model takes into account detailed variable costs and capital investments for various conversion processes. Subsequently, case studies are performed to demonstrate the applicability of the decision support tool for the Jackson Purchase region of Western Kentucky. The multidisciplinary framework is a unique contribution in the field of Process Systems Engineering as it demonstrates simulation of process optimization models and illustrates its iterative linking with the supply chain optimization models to estimate the economics of biorefinery from multi-stakeholder perspective. This informative tool not only assists in comparing modes of operation but also forecasts the effect of future scenarios, such as, utilization of marginal land for planting dedicated energy crops and incorporation of emerging enzymatic processes. The resulting framework is novel and informative in assisting investors, policy makers and other stakeholders for evaluating the impacts of biorefining. The results obtained supports the generalizability of this tool to be applied in any given region and guide stakeholders in making financial and strategic decisions

Methodology for Identifying Promising Retrofit Integrated Forest Biorefinery Strategies - Design Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Le bioraffinage forestier est de plus en plus considéré comme une activité future prometteuse pour l'industrie forestière, et comme une approche plus respectueuse de l'environnement pour répondre aux besoins de la société en matière d'énergie, de produits chimiques et de matériaux. Le bioraffinage forestier est basé en partie sur les mêmes principes que ceux de l’industrie pétrochimique et cible pratiquement le même marché de produits. L'industrie forestière possède toutefois un avantage particulier comparativement à l’industrie chimique pour cette transformation : elle possède une expérience de longue date quant à la récolte et la transformation de matières premières biologiques. D’un autre côté, la compétitivité actuelle de l’industrie des pâtes et papiers (P&P) dans les pays traditionnels de production de P&P est compromise, et ce à cause du vieillissement de ses installations, des coûts d’énergie élevés, d’une réglementation stricte et des attentes élevées du public. Dans ce contexte, la prise de décision pour un investissement dans un procédé de bioraffinage devient un défi important et donne alors lieu à des pressions supplémentaires sur la conception de procédé et sur les processus de prise de décision visant à identifier les meilleures opportunités. L’identification et la gestion des caractéristiques aux niveaux du procédé et de gestion stratégique, de même que les incertitudes reliées à l’implantation en rétro-installation du bioraffinage forestier est nécessaire pour la prise de décision concernant le choix d'investissements stratégiques. Présentement, de nombreuses méthodes sont appliquées à différentes étapes du cycle de gestion des affaires afin d’analyser l’impact des incertitudes. Au niveau du procédé, des méthodes et outils de conception de nouveaux procédés ou de procédés en rétro-installation sont appliqués pour analyser la rentabilité de projets stratégiques. Au niveau de l’entreprise ou de l’usine, des méthodes avancées de comptabilité sont utilisées pour analyser la performance au niveau des coûts des unités, et des rapports financiers sont effectués périodiquement pour caractériser la performance de l’entreprise. De plus, la prise de décision en groupe est de plus en plus utilisée pour la planification stratégique et les décisions d’investissement. L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer une méthodologie qui améliore le lien entre la conception de procédé en rétro-installation, la comptabilité analytique et les activités de prise de décision reliées à l’investissement en capital, afin d’améliorer le processus de prise de décision relié à l’investissement dans le bioraffinage forestier. Cette méthodologie est appliquée à une étude de cas considérant l’implantation en rétro-installation du bioraffinage dans une usine de P&P kraft. La méthodologie consiste en la prise de décision par étapes successives, en commençant par une présélection d’alternatives de procédés basée sur des analyses technico-économique et de risques traditionnelles. La deuxième étape du processus décisionnel utilise un nouveau cadre combinant à la fois le processus de prise de décision d'investissements stratégiques, et la conception et la simulation de procédés par le biais d’un modèle économique basé les principes de comptabilité par activités. Les modèles de coûts liés à la simulation de procédé sont d’une part en mesure de représenter avec précision les coûts de fabrication de tous les produits après l’implantation de procédés de bioraffinage. D'autre part, ces modèles sont capables de fournir des indicateurs financiers utiles pour l’évaluation des performances des projets stratégiques à court et à long terme. Par ailleurs, une analyse de risques utilisant une analyse stochastique multivariée peut être utilisée puisque toutes les mesures de performance sont explicitement quantifiées. Les résultats de l'étude de cas montrent que l'analyse systématique des incertitudes externes peut fournir des informations essentielles sur les performances d’un projet dans le pire scénario, et ce même à l’étape de présélection des alternatives de procédé. Par ailleurs, l'analyse stochastique multivariée permet une évaluation plus objective des incertitudes au lieu d'utiliser des méthodes subjectives. De plus, les résultats d'analyse des alternatives de procédés retenues en utilisant le cadre élaboré quantifient clairement les impacts économiques des projets de rétro-installation. Ces impacts varient entre les alternatives, et ce à cause des différents potentiels d'intégration et des différentes contraintes du système de production existant. Dans le cas d’un processus normal de conception de procédé et d'affectation de capitaux, cette information sur les coûts ne serait disponible que pour les projets implantés et ce, après leur mise en service. Le changement dans la compétitivité des coûts dans l’activité principale de l’entreprise peut être un facteur particulièrement important pour les producteurs de commodités papetières ayant des coûts de production élevés. En effet, lors d’un panel multicritères de décision (MCDM) où les différents calculs étaient basés sur ces données de coûts d’opération plus précises, l'intensité de différents critères de performance stratégiquement importants, tels que la performance du capital et la capacité de paiement pour les matières premières a été évaluée. Ce panel a montré que, même si certains critères de performance de projet à court terme ont été privilégiés, de bonnes performances au niveau des usines avaient également un rôle important dans le classement global. Ainsi, le classement final des alternatives obtenu lors de ce panel différait de celui obtenu lorsque seul le critère de rentabilité du projet était utilisé. De plus, les diverses importances relatives des critères de sélection de projet attribuées par les différents membres du personnel de l’entreprise ayant participé au panel ont démontré le caractère multiforme de ce problème décisionnel de choix d'investissements stratégiques. Par ailleurs, le fait d’utiliser une analyse de sensibilité lors du panel MCDM a permis d’illustrer l’impact des divergences de préférences des panélistes sur le classement des alternatives. En résumé, l’utilisation de cette méthodologie a d’abord permis de réduire un grand nombre d’alternatives de procédé pour l’usine de P&P à un premier ensemble d’alternatives potentielles, pour ensuite identifier une seule combinaison produit-procédé plus prometteuse. Cette méthodologie a donc été en mesure de lier systématiquement différentes analyses pour aider une entreprise manufacturière lors de la prise de décision pour le choix d'investissements. Les travaux futurs comprennent l'élargissement de ce cadre méthodologique au processus de décision d'investissements stratégiques au niveau corporatif, afin d’améliorer davantage la gestion des actifs et la planification stratégique. Par ailleurs, une analyse des performances au niveau des opérations pourrait être incluse dans ce cadre afin de faire la conception de procédés de bioraffinage forestier flexibles bien adaptés à la stratégie d’entreprise. ---------- Forest biorefinery is increasingly been considered as potential future business for traditional forest industry, and a more environmentally benign approach for supplying the demand of energy, chemicals and materials for the society. The forest biorefinery is partly based on the same principles, and it targets the same market sector, as traditional petro-chemical industry. However, the forest industry possesses a unique advantage over the chemical industry that is the long experience in bio-based feedstocks and their processing. The current pulp and paper (P&P) industry’s competitiveness in traditional P&P countries due to ageing assets, high energy costs, strict regulations and high environmental expectations from the public, makes however the investment decision making challenging and thus gives rise to additional pressure on the design and decision making processes to help identifying the right opportunities. Identification and management of the process and business level characteristics and uncertainties of retrofit forest biorefinery implementation is required in the strategic investment decision making. Currently, many methods are applied in different functions of the business life-cycle to analyse similar characteristics and impacts of uncertainties for varying purposes: at process level, retrofit and greenfield process design methods and tools are applied to investigate project feasibility and profitability for potential operational and strategic projects; at business or facility level, advanced cost accounting methods are used to analyse manufacturing system cost-performance, financial reporting is conducted to report business performance periodically, and group decision making is utilised in strategic planning and investment decision making. The objective of this thesis is to develop a methodology to improve the link between retrofit process design, cost accounting and capital investment decision making activities to further enhance the investment decision making process for forest biorefinery. The methodology is applied in a case study considering retrofit biorefinery implementation into a kraft P&P mill. The methodology consists of step-wise decision making starting with pre-screening of retrofit design alternatives based on traditional techno-economics and risk analysis, followed by an advanced decision making procedure. This second decision making step uses a novel framework combining process design and simulation through cost accounting models, based on activity-based costing principles, to strategic investment decision making process. The cost models linked to process simulation are able to accurately represent the manufacturing costs of all products after retrofit biorefinery implementation, and on the other hand, these models are able to provide useful financial measures of short- and long-term performance of the projects and the facility for strategic investment decision making. Moreover, risk analysis using stochastic multivariate analysis can be utilized since all performance metrics are explicitly quantified. Results of the case study application of the framework show, that systematic analysis of external uncertainties can provide critical information about the worst-case scenario project performance already in the project pre-screening stage. Moreover, multivariate stochastic analysis enables a more objective assessment of the uncertainties instead of using subjective scoring methods. Furthermore, the analysis results of the retained retrofit design alternatives using the developed framework clearly quantified the cost-impacts of the retrofit projects. These impacts vary between alternatives because of different integration potential and system constraints. In the case of normal process design and capital appropriation process, this cost information would be available only for the implemented project when it is operating. The change in the core business cost competitiveness can be especially important factor for the higher cost producers of commodity P&P products. Evaluation of the intensities of different strategically important performance criteria, such as capital performance or feedstock paying capability, based on this more accurate operating cost data showed that even though short-term project performance criteria were preferred, good facility-level performance based on the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) panel had an important role in the overall ranking. The final ranking of the alternatives differed from that of using only a single criterion, project profitability. The attribute importance preferences of mill and company personnel from varying positions demonstrated the multi-faceted nature of this strategic investment decision making problem. Moreover, using sensitivity analysis in the MCDM was also able to illustrate the impact of the panellists’ preference differences on the ranking. In summary, the complete methodology was able to narrow down a large amount of P&P mill retrofit alternatives first to a set of potential candidates and further to a most potential process-product combination, and thus was able to systematically link the different analysis activities in a manufacturing firm to aid investment decision making. Future work includes the expansion of this framework into the strategic investment decision making at the corporate level, to further enhance the asset management and strategic planning. Furthermore, operations-performance analysis can be included in the framework to obtain flexible forest biorefinery designs with good strategic fit