Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Decision-Making for Search and Classification using Multiple Autonomous Vehicles over Large-Scale Domains

This dissertation focuses on real-time decision-making for large-scale domain search and object classification using Multiple Autonomous Vehicles (MAV). In recent years, MAV systems have attracted considerable attention and have been widely utilized. Of particular interest is their application to search and classification under limited sensory capabilities. Since search requires sensor mobility and classification requires a sensor to stay within the vicinity of an object, search and classification are two competing tasks. Therefore, there is a need to develop real-time sensor allocation decision-making strategies to guarantee task accomplishment. These decisions are especially crucial when the domain is much larger than the field-of-view of a sensor, or when the number of objects to be found and classified is much larger than that of available sensors. In this work, the search problem is formulated as a coverage control problem, which aims at collecting enough data at every point within the domain to construct an awareness map. The object classification problem seeks to satisfactorily categorize the property of each found object of interest. The decision-making strategies include both sensor allocation decisions and vehicle motion control. The awareness-, Bayesian-, and risk-based decision-making strategies are developed in sequence. The awareness-based approach is developed under a deterministic framework, while the latter two are developed under a probabilistic framework where uncertainty in sensor measurement is taken into account. The risk-based decision-making strategy also analyzes the effect of measurement cost. It is further extended to an integrated detection and estimation problem with applications in optimal sensor management. Simulation-based studies are performed to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms

Is One Hyperparameter Optimizer Enough?

Hyperparameter tuning is the black art of automatically finding a good combination of control parameters for a data miner. While widely applied in empirical Software Engineering, there has not been much discussion on which hyperparameter tuner is best for software analytics. To address this gap in the literature, this paper applied a range of hyperparameter optimizers (grid search, random search, differential evolution, and Bayesian optimization) to defect prediction problem. Surprisingly, no hyperparameter optimizer was observed to be `best' and, for one of the two evaluation measures studied here (F-measure), hyperparameter optimization, in 50\% cases, was no better than using default configurations. We conclude that hyperparameter optimization is more nuanced than previously believed. While such optimization can certainly lead to large improvements in the performance of classifiers used in software analytics, it remains to be seen which specific optimizers should be applied to a new dataset.Comment: 7 pages, 2 columns, accepted for SWAN1

Bayesian fairness

We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a suitable candidate for fair decision rules. Using balance, a definition of fairness introduced by Kleinberg et al (2016), we show how a Bayesian perspective can lead to well-performing, fair decision rules even under high uncertainty.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, to appear at AAAI 201

Decision Taking for Selling Thread Startup

Decision Taking is discussed in the context of the role it may play for a selling agent in a search market, in particular for agents involved in the sale of valuable and relatively unique items, such as a dwelling, a second hand car, or a second hand recreational vessel. Detailed connections are made between the architecture of decision making processes and a sample of software technology based concepts including instruction sequences, multi-threading, and thread algebra. Ample attention is paid to the initialization or startup of a thread dedicated to achieving a given objective, and to corresponding decision taking. As an application, the selling of an item is taken as an objective to be achieved by running a thread that was designed for that purpose