41,523 research outputs found
Prediction of Large Events on a Dynamical Model of a Fault
We present results for long term and intermediate term prediction algorithms
applied to a simple mechanical model of a fault. We use long term prediction
methods based, for example, on the distribution of repeat times between large
events to establish a benchmark for predictability in the model. In comparison,
intermediate term prediction techniques, analogous to the pattern recognition
algorithms CN and M8 introduced and studied by Keilis-Borok et al., are more
effective at predicting coming large events. We consider the implications of
several different quality functions Q which can be used to optimize the
algorithms with respect to features such as space, time, and magnitude windows,
and find that our results are not overly sensitive to variations in these
algorithm parameters. We also study the intrinsic uncertainties associated with
seismicity catalogs of restricted lengths.Comment: 33 pages, plain.tex with special macros include
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Explanation-based learning for diagnosis
Diagnostic expert systems constructed using traditional knowledge-engineering techniques identify malfunctioning components using rules that associate symptoms with diagnoses. Model-based diagnosis (MBD) systems use models of devices to find faults given observations of abnormal behavior. These approaches to diagnosis are complementary. We consider hybrid diagnosis systems that include both associational and model-based diagnostic components. We present results on explanation-based learning (EBL) methods aimed at improving the performance of hybrid diagnostic problem solvers. We describe two architectures called EBL_IA and EBL(p). EBL_IA is a form fo "learning in advance" that pre-compiles models into associations. At run-time the diagnostic system is purely associational. In EBL(p), the run-time diagnosis system contains associational, MBD, and EBL components. Learned associational rules are preferred but when they are incomplete they may produce too many incorrect diagnoses. When errors cause performance to dip below a give threshold p, EBL(p) activates MBD and explanation-based "learning while doing". We present results of empirical studies comparing MBD without learning versus EBL_IA and EBL(p). The main conclusions are as follows. EBL_IA is superior when it is feasible but it is not feasible for large devices. EBL(p) can speed-up MBD and scale-up to larger devices in situations where perfect accuracy is not required
Spatial support vector regression to detect silent errors in the exascale era
As the exascale era approaches, the increasing capacity of high-performance computing (HPC) systems with targeted power and energy budget goals introduces significant challenges in reliability. Silent data corruptions (SDCs) or silent errors are one of the major sources that corrupt the executionresults of HPC applications without being detected. In this work, we explore a low-memory-overhead SDC detector, by leveraging epsilon-insensitive support vector machine regression, to detect SDCs that occur in HPC applications that can be characterized by an impact error bound. The key contributions are three fold. (1) Our design takes spatialfeatures (i.e., neighbouring data values for each data point in a snapshot) into training data, such that little memory overhead (less than 1%) is introduced. (2) We provide an in-depth study on the detection ability and performance with different parameters, and we optimize the detection range carefully. (3) Experiments with eight real-world HPC applications show thatour detector can achieve the detection sensitivity (i.e., recall) up to 99% yet suffer a less than 1% of false positive rate for most cases. Our detector incurs low performance overhead, 5% on average, for all benchmarks studied in the paper. Compared with other state-of-the-art techniques, our detector exhibits the best tradeoff considering the detection ability and overheads.This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing
Research Program, under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357, by FI-DGR 2013 scholarship, by HiPEAC PhD Collaboration
Grant, the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under the Mont-blanc 2 Project (www.montblanc-project.eu), grant agreement no. 610402, and TIN2015-65316-P.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft
Connecting Software Metrics across Versions to Predict Defects
Accurate software defect prediction could help software practitioners
allocate test resources to defect-prone modules effectively and efficiently. In
the last decades, much effort has been devoted to build accurate defect
prediction models, including developing quality defect predictors and modeling
techniques. However, current widely used defect predictors such as code metrics
and process metrics could not well describe how software modules change over
the project evolution, which we believe is important for defect prediction. In
order to deal with this problem, in this paper, we propose to use the
Historical Version Sequence of Metrics (HVSM) in continuous software versions
as defect predictors. Furthermore, we leverage Recurrent Neural Network (RNN),
a popular modeling technique, to take HVSM as the input to build software
prediction models. The experimental results show that, in most cases, the
proposed HVSM-based RNN model has a significantly better effort-aware ranking
effectiveness than the commonly used baseline models
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