Informative correlation extraction from and for Forex market analysis

The forex market is a complex, evolving, and a non-linear dynamical system, and its forecast is difficult due to high data intensity, noise/outliers, unstructured data and high degree of uncertainty. However, the exchange rate of a currency is often found surprisingly similar to the history or the variation of an alternative currency, which implies that correlation knowledge is valuable for forex market trend analysis. In this research, we propose a computational correlation analysis for the intelligent correlation extraction from all available economic data. The proposed correlation is a synthesis of channel and weighted Pearson's correlation, where the channel correlation traces the trend similarity of time series, and the weighted Pearson's correlation filters noise in correlation extraction. In the forex market analysis, we consider 3 particular aspects of correlation knowledge: (1) historical correlation, correlation to previous market data; (2) cross-currency correlation, correlation to relevant currencies, and (3) macro correlation, correlation to macroeconomic variables. While evaluating the validity of extracted correlation knowledge, we conduct a comparison of Support Vector Regression (SVR) against the correlation aided SVR (cSVR) for forex time series prediction, where correlation in addition to the observed forex time series data is used for the training of SVR. The experiments are carried out on 5 futures contracts (NZD/AUD, NZD/EUD, NZD/GBP, NZD/JPY and NZD/USD) within the period from January 2007 to December 2008. The comparison results show that the proposed correlation is computationally significant for forex market analysis in that the cSVR is performing consistently better than purely SVR on all 5 contracts exchange rate prediction, in terms of error functions MSE, RMSE, NMSE, MAE and MAPE. However, the cSVR prediction is found occasionally differing significantly from the actual price, which suggests that despite the significance of the proposed correlation, how to use correlation knowledge for market trend analysis remains a very challenging difficulty that prevents in practice further understanding of the forex market. In addition, the selection of macroeconomic factors and the determination of time period for analysis are two computationally essential points worth addressing further for future forex market correlation analysis

European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

Nonstationary regression with support vector machines

In this work, we introduce a method for data analysis in nonstationary environments: time-adaptive support vector regression (TA-SVR). The proposed approach extends a previous development that was limited to classification problems. Focusing our study on time series applications, we show that TA-SVR can improve the accuracy of several aspects of nonstationary data analysis, namely the tasks of modelling and prediction, input relevance estimation, and reconstruction of a hidden forcing profile.Fil: Uzal, Lucas César. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Rosario. Centro Internacional Franco Argentino de Ciencias de la Información y Sistemas; ArgentinaFil: Grinblat, Guillermo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Rosario. Centro Internacional Franco Argentino de Ciencias de la Información y Sistemas; ArgentinaFil: Granitto, Pablo Miguel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Rosario. Centro Internacional Franco Argentino de Ciencias de la Información y Sistemas; ArgentinaFil: Verdes, Pablo Fabian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Rosario. Centro Internacional Franco Argentino de Ciencias de la Información y Sistemas; Argentin

Investigating the Predictability of a Chaotic Time-Series Data using Reservoir Computing, Deep-Learning and Machine- Learning on the Short-, Medium- and Long-Term Pricing of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This study will investigate the predictability of a Chaotic time-series data using Reservoir computing (Echo State Network), Deep-Learning(LSTM) and Machine- Learning(Linear, Bayesian, ElasticNetCV , Random Forest, XGBoost Regression and a machine learning Neural Network) on the short (1-day out prediction), medium (5-day out prediction) and long-term (30-day out prediction) pricing of Bitcoin and Ethereum Using a range of machine learning tools, to perform feature selection by permutation importance to select technical indicators on the individual cryptocurrencies, to ensure the datasets are the best for predictions per cryptocurrency while reducing noise within the models. The predictability of these two chaotic time-series is then compared to evaluate the models to find the best fit model. The models are fine-tuned, with hyperparameters, design of the network within the LSTM and the reservoir size within the Echo State Network being adjusted to improve accuracy and speed. This research highlights the effect of the trends within the cryptocurrency and its effect on predictive models, these models will then be optimized with hyperparameter tuning, and be evaluated to compare the models across the two currencies. It is found that the datasets for each cryptocurrency are different, due to the different permutation importance, which does not affect the overall predictability of the models with the short and medium-term predictions having the same models being the top performers. This research confirms that the chaotic data although can have positive results for shortand medium-term prediction, for long-term prediction, technical analysis basedprediction is not sufficient

New input identification and artificial intelligence based techniques for load prediction in commercial building

The accuracy of prediction models for electrical loads are important as the predicted result can affect processes related to energy management such as maintenance planning, decision-making processes, as well as cost and energy savings. The studies on improving load prediction accuracy using Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) are widely carried out by optimizing the LSSVM hyper-parameter which includes the Kernel parameter and the regularization parameter. However, studies on the effects of input data determination for the LSSVM have not widely tested by researchers. This research developed an input selection technique using Modified Group Method of Data Handling (MGMDH) to improve the accuracy of buildings load forecasting. In addition, a new cascaded Group Method of Data Handing (GMDH) and LSSVM (GMDH-LSSVM) model is developed for electrical load prediction to improve the prediction accuracy of LSSVM model. To further improve the prediction model ability, a Modified GMDH has been cascaded to the LSSVM model to enhance the accuracy of building electrical load prediction and reduce the complexity of GMDH model. The proposed models are compared with GMDH model, LSSVM model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to observe the prediction performance. The performances of prediction for each tested models are evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In this analysis, the proposed prediction model, gives 33.82% improvement of prediction accuracy as compared to LSSVM model. From this research, it can be concluded that cascading the models can improve the prediction accuracy and the proposed models can be used to predict building electrical loads

Time series prediction using supervised learning and tools from chaos theory

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science and Computing, University of Luton, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyIn this work methods for performing time series prediction on complex real world time series are examined. In particular series exhibiting non-linear or chaotic behaviour are selected for analysis. A range of methodologies based on Takens' embedding theorem are considered and compared with more conventional methods. A novel combination of methods for determining the optimal embedding parameters are employed and tried out with multivariate financial time series data and with a complex series derived from an experiment in biotechnology. The results show that this combination of techniques provide accurate results while improving dramatically the time required to produce predictions and analyses, and eliminating a range of parameters that had hitherto been fixed empirically. The architecture and methodology of the prediction software developed is described along with design decisions and their justification. Sensitivity analyses are employed to justify the use of this combination of methods, and comparisons are made with more conventional predictive techniques and trivial predictors showing the superiority of the results generated by the work detailed in this thesis

Body Fat Percentage Prediction Using Intelligent Hybrid Approaches

Excess of body fat often leads to obesity. Obesity is typically associated with serious medical diseases, such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes. Accordingly, knowing the body fat is an extremely important issue since it affects everyone’s health. Although there are several ways to measure the body fat percentage (BFP), the accurate methods are often associated with hassle and/or high costs. Traditional single-stage approaches may use certain body measurements or explanatory variables to predict the BFP. Diverging from existing approaches, this study proposes new intelligent hybrid approaches to obtain fewer explanatory variables, and the proposed forecasting models are able to effectively predict the BFP. The proposed hybrid models consist of multiple regression (MR), artificial neural network (ANN), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), and support vector regression (SVR) techniques. The first stage of the modeling includes the use of MR and MARS to obtain fewer but more important sets of explanatory variables. In the second stage, the remaining important variables are served as inputs for the other forecasting methods. A real dataset was used to demonstrate the development of the proposed hybrid models. The prediction results revealed that the proposed hybrid schemes outperformed the typical, single-stage forecasting models

OFTER: An Online Pipeline for Time Series Forecasting

We introduce OFTER, a time series forecasting pipeline tailored for mid-sized multivariate time series. OFTER utilizes the non-parametric models of k-nearest neighbors and Generalized Regression Neural Networks, integrated with a dimensionality reduction component. To circumvent the curse of dimensionality, we employ a weighted norm based on a modified version of the maximal correlation coefficient. The pipeline we introduce is specifically designed for online tasks, has an interpretable output, and is able to outperform several state-of-the art baselines. The computational efficacy of the algorithm, its online nature, and its ability to operate in low signal-to-noise regimes, render OFTER an ideal approach for financial multivariate time series problems, such as daily equity forecasting. Our work demonstrates that while deep learning models hold significant promise for time series forecasting, traditional methods carefully integrating mainstream tools remain very competitive alternatives with the added benefits of scalability and interpretability.Comment: 26 pages, 12 figure

Hybrid Soft Computing Schemes for the Prediction of Import Demand of Crude Oil in Taiwan

Crude oil is the most important nonrenewable energy resource and the most key element for the world. In contrast to typical forecasts of oil price, this study aims at forecasting the demand of imported crude oil (ICO). This study proposes different single stage and two-stage hybrid stages of forecasting models for prediction of ICO in Taiwan. The single stage forecasting modeling includes multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), artificial neural networks (ANN), and extreme learning machine (ELM) approaches. While the first step of the two-stage modeling is to select the fewer but more significant explanatory variables, the second step is to generate predictions by using these significant explanatory variables. The proposed two-stage hybrid models consist of integration of different modeling components. Mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error, and mean absolute difference are utilized as the performance measures. Real data set of crude oil in Taiwan for the period of 1993–2010 and twenty-three associated explanatory variables are sampled and investigated. The forecasting results reveal that the proposed two-stage hybrid modeling is able to accurately predict the demand of crude oil in Taiwan