Behaviour recognition and monitoring of the elderly using wearable wireless sensors. Dynamic behaviour modelling and nonlinear classification methods and implementation.

In partnership with iMonSys - an emerging company in the passive care field - a new system, 'Verity', is being developed to fulfil the role of a passive behaviour monitoring and alert detection device, providing an unobtrusive level of care and assessing an individual's changing behaviour and health status whilst still allowing for independence of its elderly user. In this research, a Hidden Markov Model incorporating Fuzzy Logic-based sensor fusion is created for the behaviour detection within Verity, with a method of Fuzzy-Rule induction designed for the system's adaptation to a user during operation. A dimension reduction and classification scheme utilising Curvilinear Distance Analysis is further developed to deal with the recognition task presented by increasingly nonlinear and high dimension sensor readings, and anomaly detection methods situated within the Hidden Markov Model provide possible solutions to identification of health concerns arising from independent living. Real-time implementation is proposed through development of an Instance Based Learning approach in combination with a Bloom Filter, speeding up the classification operation and reducing the storage requirements for the considerable amount of observation data obtained during operation. Finally, evaluation of all algorithms is completed using a simulation of the Verity system with which the behaviour monitoring task is to be achieved

Uncertainty analysis in competitive bidding for service contracts

Sustainable production and consumption have become more important internationally, which has led to the transformation of market structures and competitive situations into the direction of servitisation. This means that manufacturing companies are forced to compete through the supply of services as opposed to products. Particularly the suppliers of long-life products such as submarines and airplanes no longer simply sell these products but provide their capability or availability. Companies such as Rolls-Royce Engines achieve 60% of their revenue through selling a service rather than the engine itself. For a manufacturing company, the shift towards being a service provider means that they usually have to bid for service contracts, sometimes competitively. In the context of competitive bidding, the decision makers face various uncertainties that influence their decision. Ignoring these uncertainties or their influences can result in problems such as the generation of too little profit or even a loss or the exposure to financial risks. Raising the decision maker’s awareness of the uncertainties in the form of e.g. a decision matrix, expressing the trade-off between the probability of winning the contract and the probability of making a profit, aims at integrating these factors in the decision process. The outcome is to enable the bidding company to make a more informed decision. This was the focus of the research presented in this thesis. The aim of this research was to support the pricing decision by defining a process for modelling the influencing uncertainties and including them in a decision matrix depicting the trade-off between the probability of winning the contract and the probability of making a profit. Three empirical studies are described and the associated decision process and influencing uncertainties are discussed. Based on these studies, a conceptual framework was defined which depicts the influencing factors on a pricing decision at the bidding stage and the uncertainties within these. The framework was validated with a case study in contract bidding where the uncertainties were modelled and included in a decision matrix depicting the probability of winning the contract and the probability of making a profit. The main contributions of this research are the identification of the uncertainties influencing a pricing decision, the depiction of these in a conceptual framework, a method for ascertaining how to model these uncertainties and assessing the use of such an approach via an industrial case study.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo