13 research outputs found

    Fuzzy portfolio model with fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions

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    [[abstract]]In the finance market, a short-term investment strategy is usually applied in portfolio selection in order to reduce investment risk; however, the economy is uncertain and the investment period is short. Further, an investor has incomplete information for selecting a portfolio with crisp proportions for each chosen security. In this paper we present a new method of constructing fuzzy portfolio model for the parameters of fuzzy-input return rates and fuzzy-output proportions, based on possibilistic mean–standard deviation models. Furthermore, we consider both excess or shortage of investment in different economic periods by using fuzzy constraint for the sum of the fuzzy proportions, and we also refer to risks of securities investment and vagueness of incomplete information during the period of depression economics for the portfolio selection. Finally, we present a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem to illustrate the proposed model and a sensitivity analysis is realised based on the results.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]SCI[[booktype]]紙

    DESCUENTO DE FLUJO DE FONDOS Y VALUACIÓN EN DOS MONEDAS CON MATEMÁTICAS BORROSAS

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    El modelo descuento de flujos de fondos debe incorporar, en sistemas económicos emergentes, un marco conceptual para el tratamiento de la inflación y valuación en dos monedas. El punto de partida son las teorías de paridad en los tipos de interés, poder de compra y efecto Fisher, añadiendo lógica borrosa para proyectar variables inciertas: tasas de interés, inflación, tipo de cambio y cantidades, siendo uno de sus principales aportes. El trabajo se estructura de la siguiente manera: son desarrolladas las teorías de paridad y las ecuaciones del modelo en el marco de la lógica borrosa. Su funcionamiento es ilustrado con un caso de una empresa radicada en una economía emergente e inflacionaria como Argentina utilizando planillas de cálculo. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos demostraron la consistencia de las teorías de la paridad, incorporando lógica borrosa para el tratamiento de la incertidumbre, en el marco de un modelo integral de descuento de flujos de fondos en dos monedas

    Valuing Commercial Finance Companies

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    Stakeholders are increasingly insistent that companies increase firm value. The problem is that stakeholders of financial services firms are unable to accurately determine firm value. The purpose of this correlational study was to examine the accuracy of 4 valuation models in predicting the market value of equity of commercial finance companies. Study participating companies were 8 listed U.S. or Canadian commercial finance companies. The theoretical constructs of the study included the accuracy of valuation models, modern portfolio theory, and the correlation of book value of equity to market value of equity. Financial information on participating companies obtained from public filings were input data in 4 valuation models. Multiple regression analysis of valuation model results and book value of equity (the predictor variables) were used to determine the accuracy of the models in predicting the market value of equity (response variable). The findings of the study showed that all 4 valuation models in combination with the book value of equity were statistically significant predictors of the market value of equity of the participating companies at the p \u3c .05 level. However, the dividend discount model (DDM) and residual income model (RIM) were statistically more accurate without the combination of book value of equity (p = .000 and p = .000, respectively) than the discounted cash flow and risk-adjusted discounted cash flow valuation models (p = .371 and p = .904, respectively). The results of this study contribute to positive social change by providing business leaders an ability to measure the effectiveness of their actions in creating firm value. Corporate social responsibility activities correlate to value creation for firms that engage in promoting employee welfare and other stakeholder welfare

    Risk Management for the Future

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    A large part of academic literature, business literature as well as practices in real life are resting on the assumption that uncertainty and risk does not exist. We all know that this is not true, yet, a whole variety of methods, tools and practices are not attuned to the fact that the future is uncertain and that risks are all around us. However, despite risk management entering the agenda some decades ago, it has introduced risks on its own as illustrated by the financial crisis. Here is a book that goes beyond risk management as it is today and tries to discuss what needs to be improved further. The book also offers some cases

    NEGOTIATION-BASED RISK MANAGEMENT FOR PPP-BOT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

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    Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

    Otimização multiobjetivo utilizando algoritmos evolutivos em seleção de carteiras: uma abordagem envolvendo ômega, assimetria e antifragilidade

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    Profitability in investments has always been the desire of any investor, whether an individual or a company. In periods of declining interest rates in world economies, as well as the existence of an unstable performance of stock exchange assets due to recurringfinancial crises, such as the recent one caused by COVID-19, the profitability of Fixed and Variable Income assets is increasingly threatened.This context causes investors to increasingly search for assets that manage toreconcile profitability and a minimum of security in the composition of their portfolios. Itmakes the selection of asset portfolios undoubtedly one of the most challenging topics inthe Finance area.Since Markowitz’s initial contribution, several researchers have sought to studymethods, techniques, and models applicable to the topic. A crucial theoretical landmarkwas the proposal in the 1960s of the CAPM model, which has severe empirical flaws,although robust and consistent. Its empirical limitation is pointed out by the fact that themarket portfolio proxy idealized by the model does not take effect in practice. In additionto this, some premises as normal distribution and the quadratic utility function make theCAPM model less and less likely to succeed when implemented in practice.Therefore, new approaches have been presented, with a recent highlight for theOCAPM model, in which the Omega measure allows us to relax these CAPM premisesand represent the investor’s preference more effectively. Thus, new attributes that notonly mean and variance become relevant in the process of building new approaches to themodel, transforming the problem into a multiobjective approach.As OCAPM does not yet have a full empirical application, this research splits intothree parts: the first works with mono-objective optimization and seeks to empirically knowif the OCAPM model performs better than the CAPM model in the studied markets. Thesecond part works with the optimization of purely convex attributes. It aims to ratify theview that the mean and variance may not be sufficient to represent the entire distributionof return on assets and, therefore, investors’ decisions. The third part, the central part ofthe research, deals with the optimization of multiobjective portfolios involving convex andnon-convex attributes through the use of evolutionary algorithms.In this experiment, there are three multiobjective portfolios: i) Global, involvingthe optimization of the omega, mean, asymmetry, kurtosis, drawdown, and antifragilityattributes; ii) Antifragile, involving drawdown and antifragility and iii) Asymmetric,involving omega, skewness, and kurtosis.The results of the research show that the antifragile portfolio brought higher averagereturns than CAPM and OCAPM models, and the American market showed better riskconditions. Valuing assets that have a low drawdown and have relative resilience in times of turbulence becomes advantageous in investment management. Losing little in crisistimes seems to be more significant than winning in periods of calm and stability. Amongthe evolutionary algorithms used, the highlight is the NSGA3, which presented the bestperformance out of the sample in the optimization of multiobjective portfolios.A rentabilidade em investimentos sempre foi desejo de qualquer investidor, seja pessoa física ou jurídica. Em períodos de quedas das taxas de juros das economias mundiais,bem como a existência de um desempenho instável dos ativos das bolsas de valores devido a recorrentes crises financeiras, como a recente ocasionada pelo COVID-19, a rentabilidade de ativos de Renda Fixa e Variável está cada vez mais ameaçada.Esse contexto suscita nos investidores uma busca cada vez maior por ativos que consigam conciliar rentabilidade e um mínimo de segurança na composição de seus portfólios.Isso faz com que a seleção de carteiras de ativos seja, sem dúvida, um dos temas mais desafiadores da área de Finanças.Desde a contribuição inicial de Markowitz, diversos pesquisadores têm busca do estudar métodos, técnicas e modelos aplicáveis ao tema. Um marco teórico importante foi a proposição nos anos 60 do modelo CAPM que, embora robusto e consistente, apresenta falhas severas empíricas. Sua limitação empírica é apontada pelo fato da proxy da carteira de mercado idealizada pelo modelo não se efetivar na prática. Aliado a isso, algumas premissas como a normalidade da distribuição e a função utilidade quadrática tornam o modelo CAPM cada vez menos propenso ao sucesso quando implementado na prática.Diante disso, novas abordagens têm sido apresentadas, com destaque recente para o modelo OCAPM, em que a medida Ômega permite relaxar essas premissas do CAPM e pode representar com maior efetividade a preferência do investidor. Novos atributos que não somente a média e variância passam a ser relevantes no processo de tomada dedecisão do investidor, transformando o problema em uma abordagem multi objetiva.Como o OCAPM ainda não tem ampla aplicação empírica, esta pesquisa se divide em três partes: a primeira, trabalha com otimização mono-objetivo e busca conhecer empiricamente se o modelo OCAPM apresenta desempenho superior ao modelo CAPMnos mercados estudados; a segunda parte trabalha com uma otimização de atributos puramente convexos e visa ratificar a visão de que a média e variância podem não ser,por si só, suficientes para representar toda a distribuição de retorno dos ativos e, por conseguinte, da decisão dos investidores. A terceira parte, a principal da pesquisa, tratada otimização de carteiras multi objetivas que envolvam atributos convexos e não-convexosatravés do emprego de algoritmos evolutivos.Neste experimento, são propostas 03 carteiras multi objetivas:i) Global, envolvendo a otimização dos atributos ômega, média, assimetria, curtose, drawdowne antifragilidade;ii) Antifrágil, envolvendo drawdowne antifragilidade e iii) Assimétrica, envolvendo ômega,assimetria e curtose.Os resultados da pesquisa mostram que a carteira Antifrágil trouxe ganhos superiores em relação à média de retornos dos demais modelos e sobretudo no mercado americano apresentou melhores condições de risco. Valorizar ativos que apresentem baixo drawdowne possuam relativa resiliência em períodos de turbulência se torna vantajoso na gestão de investimentos. Perder pouco em momentos de crise parece ser mais significativo que ganharem períodos de bonança e estabilidade. Dentre os algoritmos evolutivos empregados, o destaque fica com o NSGA3, que apresentou o melhor desempenho fora da amostra na otimização de carteiras multi objetivas

    The impact of credit risk on financial performance of South African banks

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    Abstracts in English, Zulu and XhosaThe banking sector is an important industry that needs to be safeguarded because its failure is bound to have a negative knock-on effect on the economy at large. The 2007-2009 financial crises were occasioned by banks assuming disproportionate levels of risk resulting in a high incidence of non-performing loans on their books. As such, this study examined the impact of credit risk on the financial performance of 18 South African banks for the period 2008 to 2018. Panel data techniques, namely the pooled ordinary least squares (pooled OLS), fixed effects and random effects estimators were employed to test the relationship between credit risk and financial performance proxied by non-performing loans (NPLs) and by return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE) respectively. The results of the study documented that credit risk is negatively related to financial performance. Thus, the higher the incidence of non-performing loans, the lower the profitability of the bank. Secondly, the study documented that growth has a positive effect on financial performance. This indicates that productivity capacity is ameliorated through bank development. Thirdly, it was found that capital adequacy is positively related to financial performance. While a greater capital adequacy ratio may instil confidence of stakeholders in a bank, making it competitive, a high capital base may be perceived as a lack of initiative and tying up resources which could have yielded better returns in alternative investments. Fourthly, the study did not find any conclusive relationship between size and financial performance. Lastly, the study found that bank leverage and financial performance are negatively related. The implications of the findings are that at a micro level, banks should observe prudent and stringent credit policies in order to limit the incidence of non-performing loans. At a macro level, regulators must enforce supervision in order to ensure that banks manage their credit risk according to the regulations to minimise the risk of bank failure.Umkhakha wezamabhanga kulibubulo eliqakathekileko eliding ukobana litjhejwe ngombana ukwehluleka kwalo kuqaleka kungaba nomthelela omumbi kezomnotho ngokubanzi bawo. Umraro wezomnotho weminyaka ephakathi kuka -2007-2009 yayikhambisana nesikhathi lapho amabhanga athoma ukuzifaka engozini ekulukazi, kanti lokho kwarholela ebujameni besehlakalo esikhulu seenkolodo ezingenzi inzuzo encwadini zamabhanga. Yeke-ke, leli rhubhululo belihlola umthintela wesikolodo mayelana nobujamo beemali bamabhanga weSewula Afrika ali-18 ukusukela ngomnyaka ka 2008 ukufika ku 2018. Amano wephanele yedatha, wona ngilawa pooled ordinary least squares (pooled OLS), fixed effects kanye namatshwayo ameda alinganisa imithintela kusetjenzisiwe ngehloso yokuhlola itjhebiswano eliphakathi kobungozi besikolodo kanye nobujamo beemali obukhambisana neenkolodo ezingananzuzo (non-performing loans )(NPLs) begodu lokhu kukhambisana nenzuzo elethwa msebenzi wepahla eligugu (return on assets) (ROA) nanyana inzuzo elethwa magugu womnotho anjengemali/matjhezi (return on equity) (ROE) ngaleyo ndlela.. Imiphumela yerhubhululo itlolwe bona ubungozi bokulodisa buhlobene ngendlela embi nobujamo beemali. Yeke-ke, kutjho bona lokha izinga lezehlakalo zeenkolodo ezingangenisi inzuzo naliya phezulu, kutjho bona izinga lokwenza inzuzo ezincani nalo liya phasi emabhangeni. Kwesibili, irhubhululo litlolwe bona ukuhluma komnotho kunomthelela omuhle ebujameni beemali. Lokhu kutjengisa bona amandla wokukhiqiza asekelwa kuthuthukiswa kwamabhanga. Kwesithathu, kuye kwatholakala bona iimali ezaneleko zikhambisana kuhle nobujamo beemali. Kanti godu, isilinganiso esikhulu seemali ezaneleko singaletha ukuzethemba kwabadlalindima ebhangeni, lokhu kwenze ibhanga bona ibe sezingeni lokuphalisana, isisekelo esiphezulu sezeemali singathathwa njengokutlhogeka komzamo wokuhlanganisa imithombo ebeyingaletha iinzuzo ezincono kwamanye amahlelo wokutjalwa kweemali. . Kwesine, irhubhululo akhange lithole nginanyana ngiliphi itjhebiswano phakathi kobukhulu kanye nobujamo beemali. Kokugcina, irhubhululo lithole bonyana ukuqiniswa kwebhanga ngeemali kanye nobujamo beemali kuzizinto ezingahlobani kuhle. Ilwazi elitholiweko lihlathulula bona ezingeni lamabhizinisi amancani, amabhanga kufanele aqale imigomo eqinileko yokukolodisa ukobana akwazi ukwehlisa izehlakalo zeenkolodo ezingangenisi inzuzo. Ezingeni lamabhizinisi amakhulu, iimbethamthetho kufanele ziqinise ilihlo ukobana aqinisekise ukuthi amabhanga alawula ubungozi bokukolodisa ngokwemithetho ukuphungula ubungozi bokwehluleka kwamabhanga.Icandelo lezeebhanki lushishino olubalulekileyo olufuna ukukhuselwa kuba ukusilela kwalo ngokuqinisekileyo kunganesiphumo esigangqalanga esingasihlanga kuqoqosho ngokubanzi. Ixesha lobunzima kwezemali ngowe-2007-2009 labangelwa ziibhanki ngamazinga omngcipheko angalamananga athe agqibelela kwisehlo esiphezulu seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo kwiincwadi zazo. Kananjalo, olu phononongo luvavanye impembelelo yomngcipheko wonikezomatyala kwizinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali kwiibhaki zaseMzantsi Afrika ezili-18 kwisithuba sowe-2008 ukuya kowe-2018. Uluhlu lweenkcukachalwazi zobugcisa, olubizwa ngokuba yi-pooled ordinary least squares (i-pooled OLS), iziqikeleli zeziphumo ezizinzileyo kunye nezeziphumo zebhaqo zasetyenziswa ukuvavanya unxulumano phakathi komngcipheko wonikezomatyala kunye nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali okumelwe ngokwelungelo ziimalimboleko ezingazaliyo (ii-NPL) kunye nembuyekezo yeeasethi (i-ROA) okanye imbuyekezo yezabelo (i-ROE) ngokulandelelana. Iziphumo zophononongo zingqine ngamaxwebhu ukuba umngcipheko wonikezomatyala unonxulumano olungaluhlanga nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Ngoko ke, okona isehlo seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo siphezulu, kokona inzuzo yebhanki iphantsi. Okwesibini, uphononongo lungqine ngamaxwebhu ukuba uhlumo lunesiphumo esihle kwizinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Oku kudandalazisa ukuba isakhono sokuvelisa senziwa ngcono ngophuhliso lwebhanki. Okwesithathu, kufunyaniswe ukuba isilinganiso senkunzi sinxulumene ngokukuko nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Ngelixa umlinganiselo wesilinganiso senkunzi omkhulu unganika ukuthembeka koqoqosho kwabachaphazelekayo kwibhanki leyo, kuyenze ukuba ibe kwizinga lokukhuphisana nezinye, isiseko senkunzi ephezulu singathathwa njengokusilela kokusungula kunye nokudibanisa imithombo engeyivelise iimbuyekezo ezingcono kutyalomali olulolunye. Okwesine, uphononongo alukhange lufumanise naluphi na unxibelelwano olubonakalayo phakathi kobungakanani nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali. Okokugqibela, uphononongo lufumanise ukuba inkxasomali yebhanki kunye nezinga lokuphuma nokungena kwemali zinxulumene ngokungakuhlanga. Okubhekiselele kokufunyanisiweyo kukuba kwicandelo loshishino olunganeno, iibhanki kufuneka ziqwalasele imigaqonkqubo yamatyala enobulumko nengqongqo ngenjongo yokunciphisa isehlo seemalimboleko ezingazaliyo. Kwicandelo loshishino olubanzi, abalawuli kufuneka banyanzele ukubekwa kweliso ukuqinisekisa ukuba iibhanki zilawula umngcipheko wonikezomatyala lwazo ngokwayamene nemigaqo ukunciphisa umngcipheko wokusilela kwebhanki.Business ManagementM. Com. (Business Management

    Facilitating Brownfield Redevelopment Projects: Evaluation, Negotiation, and Policy

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    A risky project evaluation technique called the fuzzy real options analysis is developed to evaluate brownfield redevelopment projects. Other decision making techniques, such as multiple criteria analysis and conflict analysis, can be incorporated into fuzzy real options analysis to facilitate negotiations on brownfield redevelopment among decision makers (DMs). The value of managerial flexibility, which is important in negotiations and policy making for brownfield redevelopment, is overlooked when the traditional evaluation method, net present value (NPV), is employed. Findings of this thesis can be used to promote brownfield redevelopment, thereby helping to eliminate environmental threats and enhance regional sustainability. A brownfield is an abandoned or underutilized property that contains, or may contain, pollutants, hazardous substances, or contaminants from previous usage, typically industrial activity. Brownfields often occur when the local economy transits from industrial to service-oriented seeking more profit. Governments actively promote brownfield redevelopment to eliminate public health threats, help economic transition, and enhance sustainability. However, developers are reluctant to participate in brownfield redevelopment because they often regard these projects as unprofitable when using classic evaluation techniques. On the other hand, case studies show that brownfield redevelopment projects can be good business opportunities for developers. An improved evaluation method is developed in order to estimate the value of a brownfield more accurately. The main reason that makes the difference between estimates and ''actual'' values lies in the failure of the deterministic project evaluation tool to price the value of uncertainty, which leads to efforts to enhance the decision making under uncertainty. Real options modelling, which extends the ability of option pricing models in real asset evaluation, is employed in risky project evaluation because of its capacity to handle uncertainties. However, brownfield redevelopment projects contain uncertain factors that have no market price, thus violating the assumption of option pricing models for which all risks have been reflected in the market. This problem, called private risk, is addressed by incorporating fuzzy numbers into real options in this thesis, which can be called fuzzy real options. Fuzzy real options are shown to generalize the original model to deal with additional kinds of uncertainties, making them more suitable for project evaluation. A numerical technique based on hybrid variables is developed to price fuzzy real options. We proposed an extension of Least Squares Monte-Carlo simulation (LSM) that produces numerical evaluations of options. A major advantage of this methodology lies in its ability to produce results regardless of whether or not an analytic solution exists. Tests show that the generalized LSM produces similar results to the analytic valuation of fuzzy real options, when this is possible. To facilitate parameter estimation for the fuzzy real options model, another numerical method is proposed to represent the likelihood of contamination of a brownfield using fuzzy boundaries. Linguistic quantifiers and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) techniques are utilized to determine the likelihood of pollution at sample locations based on multiple environmental indicators, acting as a fuzzy deduction rule to calculate the triangle membership functions of the fuzzy parameters. Risk preferences of DMs are expressed as different ''ORness'' levels of OWA operators, which affect likelihood estimates. When the fuzzy boundaries of a brownfield are generated by interpolation of sample points, the parameters of fuzzy real options, drift rate and volatility, can be calculated as fuzzy numbers. Hence, this proposed method can act as an intermediary between DMs and the fuzzy real options models, making this model much easier to apply. The values of DMs to a brownfield can be input to the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to identify possible resolutions during brownfield redevelopment negotiation among all possible states, or combinations of DMs' choices. Major redevelopment policies are studied using a brownfield redevelopment case, Ralgreen Community in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. The fuzzy preference framework and probability-based comparison method to rank fuzzy variables are employed to integrate fuzzy real options and GMCR. Insights into this conflict and general policy suggestions are provided. A potential negotiation support system (NSS) implementing these numerical methods is discussed in the context of negotiating brownfield redevelopment projects. The NSS combines the computational modules, decision support system (DSS) prototypes, and geographic information systems (GIS), and message systems. A public-private partnership (PPP) will be enhanced through information sharing, scenario generation, and conflict analysis provided by the NSS, encouraging more efficient brownfield redevelopment and leading to greater regional sustainability. The integrated usage of fuzzy real options, OWA, and GMCR takes advantage of fuzziness and randomness, making better evaluation technique available in a multiple DMs negotiation setting. Decision techniques expand their range from decision analysis, multiple criteria analysis, to a game-theoretic approach, contributing to a big picture on decision making under uncertainty. When these methods are used to study brownfield redevelopment, we found that creating better business opportunities, such as allowing land use change to raise net income, are more important in determining equilibria than remediation cost refunding. Better redevelopment policies can be proposed to aid negotiations among stakeholders

    International Navigation Market

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    Economic record of human society in the last period has involved an unprecedented growth of world trade, trafficking of basic raw materials needed for industry and agriculture, and trade in industrial products or food. To the huge volume of movement of goods, shipping takes back the role of first order both quantitatively as well as efficiency. This situation is encouraged by factors such as diversification of trade, number of participants in this process and the increasingly complex international trade

    International Navigation Market

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    Economic record of human society in the last period has involved an unprecedented growth of world trade, trafficking of basic raw materials needed for industry and agriculture, and trade in industrial products or food. To the huge volume of movement of goods, shipping takes back the role of first order both quantitatively as well as efficiency. This situation is encouraged by factors such as diversification of trade, number of participants in this process and the increasingly complex international trade
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