Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation

Fiber-Flux Diffusion Density for White Matter Tracts Analysis: Application to Mild Anomalies Localization in Contact Sports Players

We present the concept of fiber-flux density for locally quantifying white matter (WM) fiber bundles. By combining scalar diffusivity measures (e.g., fractional anisotropy) with fiber-flux measurements, we define new local descriptors called Fiber-Flux Diffusion Density (FFDD) vectors. Applying each descriptor throughout fiber bundles allows along-tract coupling of a specific diffusion measure with geometrical properties, such as fiber orientation and coherence. A key step in the proposed framework is the construction of an FFDD dissimilarity measure for sub-voxel alignment of fiber bundles, based on the fast marching method (FMM). The obtained aligned WM tract-profiles enable meaningful inter-subject comparisons and group-wise statistical analysis. We demonstrate our method using two different datasets of contact sports players. Along-tract pairwise comparison as well as group-wise analysis, with respect to non-player healthy controls, reveal significant and spatially-consistent FFDD anomalies. Comparing our method with along-tract FA analysis shows improved sensitivity to subtle structural anomalies in football players over standard FA measurements

Practical computational toolkits for dendrimers and dendrons structure design

Dendrimers and dendrons offer an excellent platform for developing novel drug delivery systems and medicines. The rational design and further development of these repetitively branched systems are restricted by difficulties in scalable synthesis and structural determination, which can be overcome by judicious use of molecular modelling and molecular simulations. A major difficulty to utilise in silico studies to design dendrimers lies in the laborious generation of their structures. Current modelling tools utilise automated assembly of simpler dendrimers or the inefficient manual assembly of monomer precursors to generate more complicated dendrimer structures. Herein we describe two novel graphical user interface (GUI) toolkits written in Python that provide an improved degree of automation for rapid assembly of dendrimers and generation of their 2D and 3D structures. Our first toolkit uses the RDkit library, SMILES nomenclature of monomers and SMARTS reaction nomenclature to generate SMILES and mol files of dendrimers without 3D coordinates. These files are used for simple graphical representations and storing their structures in databases. The second toolkit assembles complex topology dendrimers from monomers to construct 3D dendrimer structures to be used as starting points for simulation using existing and widely available software and force fields. Both tools were validated for ease-of-use to prototype dendrimer structure and the second toolkit was especially relevant for dendrimers of high complexity and size.Peer reviewe

Pressure-Induced Simultaneous Metal-Insulator and Structural-Phase Transitions in LiH: a Quasiparticle Study

A pressure-induced simultaneous metal-insulator transition (MIT) and structural-phase transformation in lithium hydride with about 1% volume collapse has been predicted by means of the local density approximation (LDA) in conjunction with an all-electron GW approximation method. The LDA wrongly predicts that the MIT occurs before the structural phase transition. As a byproduct, it is shown that only the use of the generalized-gradient approximation together with the zero-point vibration produces an equilibrium lattice parameter, bulk modulus, and an equation of state that are in excellent agreement with experimental results.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Europhysics Letter

Ab-initio calculations for the beta-tin diamond transition in Silicon: comparing theories with experiments

We investigate the pressure-induced metal-insulator transition from diamond to beta-tin in bulk Silicon, using quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) and density functional theory (DFT) approaches. We show that it is possible to efficiently describe many-body effects, using a variational wave function with an optimized Jastrow factor and a Slater determinant. Variational results are obtained with a small computational cost and are further improved by performing diffusion Monte Carlo calculations and an explicit optimization of molecular orbitals in the determinant. Finite temperature corrections and zero point motion effects are included by calculating phonon dispersions in both phases at the DFT level. Our results indicate that the theoretical QMC (DFT) transition pressure is significantly larger (smaller) than the accepted experimental value. We discuss the limitation of DFT approaches due to the choice of the exchange and correlation functionals and the difficulty to determine consistent pseudopotentials within the QMC framework, a limitation that may significantly affect the accuracy of the technique.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, submitted to the Physical Review B on October 2

A review of R-packages for random-intercept probit regression in small clusters

Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) are widely used to model clustered categorical outcomes. To tackle the intractable integration over the random effects distributions, several approximation approaches have been developed for likelihood-based inference. As these seldom yield satisfactory results when analyzing binary outcomes from small clusters, estimation within the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) framework is proposed as an alternative. We compare the performance of R-packages for random-intercept probit regression relying on: the Laplace approximation, adaptive Gaussian quadrature (AGQ), Penalized Quasi-Likelihood (PQL), an MCMC-implementation, and integrated nested Laplace approximation within the GLMM-framework, and a robust diagonally weighted least squares estimation within the SEM-framework. In terms of bias for the fixed and random effect estimators, SEM usually performs best for cluster size two, while AGQ prevails in terms of precision (mainly because of SEM's robust standard errors). As the cluster size increases, however, AGQ becomes the best choice for both bias and precision