Emerging infectious diseases: coping with uncertainty

The world’s scientific community must be in a state of constant readiness to address the threat posed by newly emerging infectious diseases. Whether the disease in question is SARS in humans or BSE in animals, scientists must be able to put into action various disease containment measures when everything from the causative pathogen to route(s) of transmission is essentially uncertain. A robust epistemic framework, which will inform decision-making, is required under such conditions of uncertainty. I will argue that this framework should have reasoning at its centre and, specifically, that forms of reasoning beyond deduction and induction should be countenanced by scientists who are confronted with emerging infectious diseases. In previous articles, I have presented a case for treating certain so-called traditional informal fallacies as rationally acceptable forms of argument that can facilitate scientific inquiry when little is known about an emerging disease. In this paper, I want to extend that analysis by highlighting the unique features of these arguments that makes them specially adapted to cope with conditions of uncertainty. Of course, such a view of the informal fallacies must at least be consistent with the reasoning practices of scientists, and particularly those scientists (viz. epidemiologists) whose task it is to track and respond to newly emerging infectious diseases. To this end, I draw upon examples of scientific reasoning from the UK’s BSE crisis, a crisis that posed a significant threat to both human and animal health

Coping with uncertainty in public health: the use of heuristics

The observation that experts and lay people use cognitive shortcuts or heuristics to arrive at judgements about complex problems is certainly not new. But what is new is the finding that a group of reasoning strategies, which have been maligned by philosophers and logicians alike, have demonstrable value in helping members of the public come to a judgement about public health problems. These problems, which span food safety crises, immunization scares and risks associated with exposure to environmental toxins, presuppose knowledge and expertise which falls outside of the epistemic and technical competence of most members of the public. Notwithstanding the complexity of these problems, they are not perceived by lay people to be wholly unintelligible or incomprehensible. This short communication reports on the findings of a questionnaire-based investigation into the use of these reasoning strategies by 879 members of the public. The results reveal a rational competence on the part of lay people which has been hitherto unexamined, and which may be usefully exploited in all aspects of public health work

Alaska Petroleum Revenues: Coping With Uncertainty

Presented at Energy Markets and Regulation Law Seminars International, December 6-7, 2010. Anchorage, AlaskaNorthrim Bank. University of Alaska Foundation

Theoretical aspects of coping strategies study

In article based on a thorough analysis of classical and modern foreign and domestic literature examines the notion of coping strategies, approaches to the understanding of coping. Theoretically proved that coping is an individual way to interact with the situation according to its own logic, psychological capabilities and its importance in human life, the level of development of coping resources provides a successful adaptation to stress. From the analysis of theoretical literature, we saw that the uncertainty of events to humans might arise from objectively defi ned parameters of the situation and its subjective interpretation that is associated with the personal characteristics of the person, lack of experience or skills in this type of life events. The signifi cance of the research question in a pedagogical context is to help the teenager to better adapt to the demands of the situation, allowing him to possess her, to repay the action stressful situation, creative process and become an active subject

Coordination under threshold uncertainty in a public goods game

We explored experimentally how threshold uncertainty affects coordination success in a threshold public goods game. Whereas all groups succeeded in providing the public good when the exact value of the threshold was known, uncertainty was generally detrimental for the public good provision. The negative effect of threshold uncertainty was particularly severe when it took the form of ambiguity, i.e. when players were not only unaware of the value of the threshold but also of its probability distribution. Early signaling of willingness to contribute and share the burden equitably helped groups in coping with threshold uncertainty. --Public good,threshold uncertainty,ambiguity,experiment

Uncertainty in nursing: the impact on practice and leadership

Nurses experience uncertainty in practice due to the fast paced, complex nature of the healthcare system. Uncertainty in nursing practice has a direct influence on patient care, as well as personal well-being of the nurse, and his or her engagement and retention in the workplace. This paper describes a project intended to help nurses identify and cope with uncertainty in practice on an adult medical inpatient unit at a major Midwestern healthcare facility. The project is illustrated through a conceptual model of coping with uncertainty as guided by Margaret Newman\u27s Theory of Health as Expanding Consciousness (HEC). The model identifies tools for coping with uncertainty through connecting with the environment, oneself and others. A quilting metaphor is introduced to help nurses visualize patterns of uncertainty in practice and use the coping tools to move toward confidence and competence in practice. The role of nursing leadership is identified as integral to the success of the project. Additional development of the project and research is suggested for further understanding of uncertainty experienced specifically in nursing practice and to document the impact that HEC theory guided coping tools have on decreasing uncertainty in nursing practice

Relationships among Uncertainty, Coping, and Psychological Distress in Older Adults with Mild Cognitive Impairment

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has an average prevalence of 18.9% and most often affects people 60 years of age or older. It is a cognitive stage between normal functioning and dementia (Petersen, 2003; Petersen, 2011; Petersen et al., 2014). MCI can be broken into two subtypes classified by the presence of memory impairment (amnestic MCI) or the lack thereof (nonamnestic MCI). Medical diagnostic criteria are commonly used to guide research with older adults with MCI. A theoretical framework that addresses the antecedents and consequences of MCI, specifically one examining the relationships among MCI, uncertainty, coping and psychological distress, is essential to guide the development of effective nursing interventions but is unapparent in published literature. The aims of this quantitative, cross-sectional study are to: (1) test select components of a new conceptual framework for MCI by examining the relationships among uncertainty, coping, psychological distress, time since diagnosis, and level of cognitive impairment from MCI; (2) describe the levels of uncertainty, coping, and psychological distress in persons with MCI; (3) examine the differences in scores on uncertainty, coping, and psychological distress between the two subtypes of MCI; and (4) examine the strength and direction of relationships between scores on uncertainty, coping, and psychological distress within the subtypes of MCI. The sample consisted of 91 primarily Caucasian (\u3e85%) older adults receiving care at a neurology clinic, with a relatively even split between genders and MCI subtypes. Positive relationships were found between uncertainty, coping, and psychological distress, supporting the study framework. In addition, subjects reported low to moderate levels of uncertainty and psychological distress, and most often used emotion-focused coping strategies. Subjects with naMCI reported more somatic symptoms than those with aMCI (p\u3c0.05); however, there were no significant relationships between the MCI subtypes or level of cognitive impairment on the other psychological distress subscales, coping instrument, or uncertainty instrument. The long-term goal of this study is to provide a foundation for a program of research centered on the development and evaluation of interventions to assist older adults who have a diagnosis of MCI and their family members with coping and managing their condition