Planning under risk and uncertainty

This thesis concentrates on the optimization of large-scale management policies under conditions of risk and uncertainty. In paper I, we address the problem of solving large-scale spatial and temporal natural resource management problems. To model these types of problems, the framework of graph-based Markov decision processes (GMDPs) can be used. Two algorithms for computation of high-quality management policies are presented: the first is based on approximate linear programming (ALP) and the second is based on mean-field approximation and approximate policy iteration (MF-API). The applicability and efficiency of the algorithms were demonstrated by their ability to compute near-optimal management policies for two large-scale management problems. It was concluded that the two algorithms compute policies of similar quality. However, the MF-API algorithm should be used when both the policy and the expected value of the computed policy are required, while the ALP algorithm may be preferred when only the policy is required. In paper II, a number of reinforcement learning algorithms are presented that can be used to compute management policies for GMDPs when the transition function can only be simulated because its explicit formulation is unknown. Studies of the efficiency of the algorithms for three management problems led us to conclude that some of these algorithms were able to compute near-optimal management policies. In paper III, we used the GMDP framework to optimize long-term forestry management policies under stochastic wind-damage events. The model was demonstrated by a case study of an estate consisting of 1,200 ha of forest land, divided into 623 stands. We concluded that managing the estate according to the risk of wind damage increased the expected net present value (NPV) of the whole estate only slightly, less than 2%, under different wind-risk assumptions. Most of the stands were managed in the same manner as when the risk of wind damage was not considered. However, the analysis rests on properties of the model that need to be refined before definite conclusions can be drawn

Techniques for the allocation of resources under uncertainty

L’allocation de ressources est un problème omniprésent qui survient dès que des ressources limitées doivent être distribuées parmi de multiples agents autonomes (e.g., personnes, compagnies, robots, etc). Les approches standard pour déterminer l’allocation optimale souffrent généralement d’une très grande complexité de calcul. Le but de cette thèse est de proposer des algorithmes rapides et efficaces pour allouer des ressources consommables et non consommables à des agents autonomes dont les préférences sur ces ressources sont induites par un processus stochastique. Afin d’y parvenir, nous avons développé de nouveaux modèles pour des problèmes de planifications, basés sur le cadre des Processus Décisionnels de Markov (MDPs), où l’espace d’actions possibles est explicitement paramétrisés par les ressources disponibles. Muni de ce cadre, nous avons développé des algorithmes basés sur la programmation dynamique et la recherche heuristique en temps-réel afin de générer des allocations de ressources pour des agents qui agissent dans un environnement stochastique. En particulier, nous avons utilisé la propriété acyclique des créations de tâches pour décomposer le problème d’allocation de ressources. Nous avons aussi proposé une stratégie de décomposition approximative, où les agents considèrent des interactions positives et négatives ainsi que les actions simultanées entre les agents gérants les ressources. Cependant, la majeure contribution de cette thèse est l’adoption de la recherche heuristique en temps-réel pour l’allocation de ressources. À cet effet, nous avons développé une approche basée sur la Q-décomposition munie de bornes strictes afin de diminuer drastiquement le temps de planification pour formuler une politique optimale. Ces bornes strictes nous ont permis d’élaguer l’espace d’actions pour les agents. Nous montrons analytiquement et empiriquement que les approches proposées mènent à des diminutions de la complexité de calcul par rapport à des approches de planification standard. Finalement, nous avons testé la recherche heuristique en temps-réel dans le simulateur SADM, un simulateur d’allocation de ressource pour une frégate.Resource allocation is an ubiquitous problem that arises whenever limited resources have to be distributed among multiple autonomous entities (e.g., people, companies, robots, etc). The standard approaches to determine the optimal resource allocation are computationally prohibitive. The goal of this thesis is to propose computationally efficient algorithms for allocating consumable and non-consumable resources among autonomous agents whose preferences for these resources are induced by a stochastic process. Towards this end, we have developed new models of planning problems, based on the framework of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the action sets are explicitly parameterized by the available resources. Given these models, we have designed algorithms based on dynamic programming and real-time heuristic search to formulating thus allocations of resources for agents evolving in stochastic environments. In particular, we have used the acyclic property of task creation to decompose the problem of resource allocation. We have also proposed an approximative decomposition strategy, where the agents consider positive and negative interactions as well as simultaneous actions among the agents managing the resources. However, the main contribution of this thesis is the adoption of stochastic real-time heuristic search for a resource allocation. To this end, we have developed an approach based on distributed Q-values with tight bounds to diminish drastically the planning time to formulate the optimal policy. These tight bounds enable to prune the action space for the agents. We show analytically and empirically that our proposed approaches lead to drastic (in many cases, exponential) improvements in computational efficiency over standard planning methods. Finally, we have tested real-time heuristic search in the SADM simulator, a simulator for the resource allocation of a platform

Applications of DEC-MDPs in multi-robot systems

International audienceOptimizing the operation of cooperative multi-robot systems that can cooperatively act in large and complex environments has become an important focal area of research. This issue is motivated by many applications involving a set of cooperative robots that have to decide in a decentralized way how to execute a large set of tasks in partially observable and uncertain environments. Such decision problems are encountered while developing exploration rovers, teams of patrolling robots, rescue-robot colonies, mine-clearance robots, et cetera.In this chapter, we introduce problematics related to the decentralized control of multi-robot systems. We rst describe some applicative domains and review the main characteristics of the decision problems the robots must deal with. Then, we review some existing approaches to solve problems of multiagent decen- tralized control in stochastic environments. We present the Decentralized Markov Decision Processes and discuss their applicability to real-world multi-robot applications. Then, we introduce OC-DEC-MDPs and 2V-DEC-MDPs which have been developed to increase the applicability of DEC-MDPs

Coordinating decentralized learning and conflict resolution across agent boundaries

It is crucial for embedded systems to adapt to the dynamics of open environments. This adaptation process becomes especially challenging in the context of multiagent systems because of scalability, partial information accessibility and complex interaction of agents. It is a challenge for agents to learn good policies, when they need to plan and coordinate in uncertain, dynamic environments, especially when they have large state spaces. It is also critical for agents operating in a multiagent system (MAS) to resolve conflicts among the learned policies of different agents, since such conflicts may have detrimental influence on the overall performance. The focus of this research is to use a reinforcement learning based local optimization algorithm within each agent to learn multiagent policies in a decentralized fashion. These policies will allow each agent to adapt to changes in environmental conditions while reorganizing the underlying multiagent network when needed. The research takes an adaptive approach to resolving conflicts that can arise between locally optimal agent policies. First an algorithm that uses heuristic rules to locally resolve simple conflicts is presented. When the environment is more dynamic and uncertain, a mediator-based mechanism to resolve more complicated conflicts and selectively expand the agents' state space during the learning process is harnessed. For scenarios where mediator-based mechanisms with partially global views are ineffective, a more rigorous approach for global conflict resolution that synthesizes multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) and distributed constraint optimization (DCOP) is developed. These mechanisms are evaluated in the context of a multiagent tornado tracking application called NetRads. Empirical results show that these mechanisms significantly improve the performance of the tornado tracking network for a variety of weather scenarios. The major contributions of this work are: a state of the art decentralized learning approach that supports agent interactions and reorganizes the underlying network when needed; the use of abstract classes of scenarios/states/actions that efficiently manages the exploration of the search space; novel conflict resolution algorithms of increasing complexity that use heuristic rules, sophisticated automated negotiation mechanisms and distributed constraint optimization methods respectively; and finally, a rigorous study of the interplay between two popular theories used to solve multiagent problems, namely decentralized Markov decision processes and distributed constraint optimization

08461 Abstracts Collection -- Planning in Multiagent Systems

From the 9th of November to the 14th of November 2008 the Dagstuhl Seminar 08461 \u27`Planning in Multiagent Systems\u27\u27 was held in Schloss Dagstuhl~--~Leibniz Center for Informatics. During the seminar, several participants presented their current research, and ongoing work and open problems were discussed. Abstracts of the presentations given during the seminar as well as abstracts of seminar results and ideas are put together in this paper. The first section describes the seminar topics and goals in general. Links to extended abstracts or full papers are provided, if available

Human–agent collaboration for disaster response

In the aftermath of major disasters, first responders are typically overwhelmed with large numbers of, spatially distributed, search and rescue tasks, each with their own requirements. Moreover, responders have to operate in highly uncertain and dynamic environments where new tasks may appear and hazards may be spreading across the disaster space. Hence, rescue missions may need to be re-planned as new information comes in, tasks are completed, or new hazards are discovered. Finding an optimal allocation of resources to complete all the tasks is a major computational challenge. In this paper, we use decision theoretic techniques to solve the task allocation problem posed by emergency response planning and then deploy our solution as part of an agent-based planning tool in real-world field trials. By so doing, we are able to study the interactional issues that arise when humans are guided by an agent. Specifically, we develop an algorithm, based on a multi-agent Markov decision process representation of the task allocation problem and show that it outperforms standard baseline solutions. We then integrate the algorithm into a planning agent that responds to requests for tasks from participants in a mixed-reality location-based game, called AtomicOrchid, that simulates disaster response settings in the real-world. We then run a number of trials of our planning agent and compare it against a purely human driven system. Our analysis of these trials show that human commanders adapt to the planning agent by taking on a more supervisory role and that, by providing humans with the flexibility of requesting plans from the agent, allows them to perform more tasks more efficiently than using purely human interactions to allocate tasks. We also discuss how such flexibility could lead to poor performance if left unchecked

Effective Approximations for Multi-Robot Coordination in Spatially Distributed Tasks

Although multi-robot systems have received substantial research attention in recent years, multi-robot coordination still remains a difficult task. Especially, when dealing with spatially distributed tasks and many robots, central control quickly becomes infeasible due to the exponential explosion in the number of joint actions and states. We propose a general algorithm that allows for distributed control, that overcomes the exponential growth in the number of joint actions by aggregating the effect of other agents in the system into a probabilistic model, called subjective approximations, and then choosing the best response. We show for a multi-robot grid-world how the algorithm can be implemented in the well studied Multiagent Markov Decision Process framework, as a sub-class called spatial task allocation problems (SPATAPs). In this framework, we show how to tackle SPATAPs using online, distributed planning by combining subjective agent approximations with restriction of attention to current tasks in the world. An empirical evaluation shows that the combination of both strategies allows to scale to very large problems, while providing near-optimal solutions