Chebyshev model arithmetic for factorable functions

This article presents an arithmetic for the computation of Chebyshev models for factorable functions and an analysis of their convergence properties. Similar to Taylor models, Chebyshev models consist of a pair of a multivariate polynomial approximating the factorable function and an interval remainder term bounding the actual gap with this polynomial approximant. Propagation rules and local convergence bounds are established for the addition, multiplication and composition operations with Chebyshev models. The global convergence of this arithmetic as the polynomial expansion order increases is also discussed. A generic implementation of Chebyshev model arithmetic is available in the library MC++. It is shown through several numerical case studies that Chebyshev models provide tighter bounds than their Taylor model counterparts, but this comes at the price of extra computational burden

Guaranteed parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems using improved bounding techniques

This paper is concerned with guaranteed parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems in a context of bounded measurement error. The problem consists of finding - or approximating as closely as possible - the set of all possible parameter values such that the predicted outputs match the corresponding measurements within prescribed error bounds. An exhaustive search procedure is applied, whereby the parameter set is successively partitioned into smaller boxes and exclusion tests are performed to eliminate some of these boxes, until a prespecified threshold on the approximation level is met. Exclusion tests rely on the ability to bound the solution set of the dynamic system for a given parameter subset and the tightness of these bounds is therefore paramount. Equally important is the time required to compute the bounds, thereby defining a trade-off. It is the objective of this paper to investigate this trade-off by comparing various bounding techniques based on interval arithmetic, Taylor model arithmetic and ellipsoidal calculus. When applied to a simple case study, ellipsoidal and Taylor model approaches are found to reduce the number of iterations significantly compared to interval analysis, yet the overall computational time is only reduced for tight approximation levels due to the computational overhead. © 2013 EUCA

Branch-and-lift algorithm for deterministic global optimization in nonlinear optimal control

This paper presents a branch-and-lift algorithm for solving optimal control problems with smooth nonlinear dynamics and potentially nonconvex objective and constraint functionals to guaranteed global optimality. This algorithm features a direct sequential method and builds upon a generic, spatial branch-and-bound algorithm. A new operation, called lifting, is introduced, which refines the control parameterization via a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization process, while simultaneously eliminating control subregions that are either infeasible or that provably cannot contain any global optima. Conditions are given under which the image of the control parameterization error in the state space contracts exponentially as the parameterization order is increased, thereby making the lifting operation efficient. A computational technique based on ellipsoidal calculus is also developed that satisfies these conditions. The practical applicability of branch-and-lift is illustrated in a numerical example. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York

Migration and Labour Market Differences: The Case of Wales

The migration of labour can affect economies in several ways. This paper focuses on two of the economic impacts of migration in the context of the recent Welsh experience. Firstly, since migration is a key aspect of labour market flexibility, it is a mechanism through which local and regional labour market differences can be reduced. However, it is found that the most deprived parts of Wales have the lowest levels of migration and that both in and outmigration rates are negatively correlated with unemployment and sickness rates. Secondly, the characteristics of in and out-migrants have important implications for the current and future performance of local and regional economies. Using a variety of data sources, it is shown that people leaving Wales are younger and more educated than migrants to Wales. Furthermore, younger and more educated Welsh individuals appear to have a higher willingness to move than their counterparts living elsewhere in Britain.migration, local and regional labour markets, Wales

The bootstrap -A review

The bootstrap, extensively studied during the last decade, has become a powerful tool in different areas of Statistical Inference. In this work, we present the main ideas of bootstrap methodology in several contexts, citing the most relevant contributions and illustrating with examples and simulation studies some interesting aspects

Automatic Construction of Predictive Neuron Models through Large Scale Assimilation of Electrophysiological Data.

We report on the construction of neuron models by assimilating electrophysiological data with large-scale constrained nonlinear optimization. The method implements interior point line parameter search to determine parameters from the responses to intracellular current injections of zebra finch HVC neurons. We incorporated these parameters into a nine ionic channel conductance model to obtain completed models which we then use to predict the state of the neuron under arbitrary current stimulation. Each model was validated by successfully predicting the dynamics of the membrane potential induced by 20-50 different current protocols. The dispersion of parameters extracted from different assimilation windows was studied. Differences in constraints from current protocols, stochastic variability in neuron output, and noise behave as a residual temperature which broadens the global minimum of the objective function to an ellipsoid domain whose principal axes follow an exponentially decaying distribution. The maximum likelihood expectation of extracted parameters was found to provide an excellent approximation of the global minimum and yields highly consistent kinetics for both neurons studied. Large scale assimilation absorbs the intrinsic variability of electrophysiological data over wide assimilation windows. It builds models in an automatic manner treating all data as equal quantities and requiring minimal additional insight