227 research outputs found

    Using hydrological models and digital soil mapping for the assessment and management of catchments: A case study of the Nyangores and Ruiru catchments in Kenya (East Africa)

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    Human activities on land have a direct and cumulative impact on water and other natural resources within a catchment. This land-use change can have hydrological consequences on the local and regional scales. Sound catchment assessment is not only critical to understanding processes and functions but also important in identifying priority management areas. The overarching goal of this doctoral thesis was to design a methodological framework for catchment assessment (dependent upon data availability) and propose practical catchment management strategies for sustainable water resources management. The Nyangores and Ruiru reservoir catchments located in Kenya, East Africa were used as case studies. A properly calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model coupled with a generic land-use optimization tool (Constrained Multi-Objective Optimization of Land-use Allocation-CoMOLA) was applied to identify and quantify functional trade-offs between environmental sustainability and food production in the ‘data-available’ Nyangores catchment. This was determined using a four-dimension objective function defined as (i) minimizing sediment load, (ii) maximizing stream low flow and (iii and iv) maximizing the crop yields of maize and soybeans, respectively. Additionally, three different optimization scenarios, represented as i.) agroforestry (Scenario 1), ii.) agroforestry + conservation agriculture (Scenario 2) and iii.) conservation agriculture (Scenario 3), were compared. For the data-scarce Ruiru reservoir catchment, alternative methods using digital soil mapping of soil erosion proxies (aggregate stability using Mean Weight Diameter) and spatial-temporal soil loss analysis using empirical models (the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation-RUSLE) were used. The lack of adequate data necessitated a data-collection phase which implemented the conditional Latin Hypercube Sampling. This sampling technique reduced the need for intensive soil sampling while still capturing spatial variability. The results revealed that for the Nyangores catchment, adoption of both agroforestry and conservation agriculture (Scenario 2) led to the smallest trade-off amongst the different objectives i.e. a 3.6% change in forests combined with 35% change in conservation agriculture resulted in the largest reduction in sediment loads (78%), increased low flow (+14%) and only slightly decreased crop yields (3.8% for both maize and soybeans). Therefore, the advanced use of hydrologic models with optimization tools allows for the simultaneous assessment of different outputs/objectives and is ideal for areas with adequate data to properly calibrate the model. For the Ruiru reservoir catchment, digital soil mapping (DSM) of aggregate stability revealed that susceptibility to erosion exists for cropland (food crops), tea and roadsides, which are mainly located in the eastern part of the catchment, as well as deforested areas on the western side. This validated that with limited soil samples and the use of computing power, machine learning and freely available covariates, DSM can effectively be applied in data-scarce areas. Moreover, uncertainty in the predictions can be incorporated using prediction intervals. The spatial-temporal analysis exhibited that bare land (which has the lowest areal proportion) was the largest contributor to erosion. Two peak soil loss periods corresponding to the two rainy periods of March–May and October–December were identified. Thus, yearly soil erosion risk maps misrepresent the true dimensions of soil loss with averages disguising areas of low and high potential. Also, a small portion of the catchment can be responsible for a large proportion of the total erosion. For both catchments, agroforestry (combining both the use of trees and conservation farming) is the most feasible catchment management strategy (CMS) for solving the major water quantity and quality problems. Finally, the key to thriving catchments aiming at both sustainability and resilience requires urgent collaborative action by all stakeholders. The necessary stakeholders in both Nyangores and Ruiru reservoir catchments must be involved in catchment assessment in order to identify the catchment problems, mitigation strategies/roles and responsibilities while keeping in mind that some risks need to be shared and negotiated, but so will the benefits.:TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION OF CONFORMITY........................................................................ i DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENT WORK AND CONSENT ............................. ii LIST OF PAPERS ................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ..................................................................................... iv THESIS AT A GLANCE ......................................................................................... v SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ vi List of Figures......................................................................................................... x List of Tables........................................................................................................... x ABBREVIATION..................................................................................................... xi PART A: SYNTHESIS 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Catchment management ...................................................................................1 1.2 Tools to support catchment assessment and management ..............................4 1.3 Catchment management strategies (CMSs)......................................................9 1.4 Concept and research objectives.......................................................................11 2. MATERIAL AND METHODS................................................................................15 2.1. STUDY AREA ..................................................................................................15 2.1.1. Nyangores catchment ...................................................................................15 2.1.2. Ruiru reservoir catchment .............................................................................17 2.2. Using SWAT conceptual model and land-use optimization ..............................19 2.3. Using soil erosion proxies and empirical models ..............................................21 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..............................................................................24 3.1. Assessing multi-metric calibration performance using the SWAT model...........25 3.2. Land-use optimization using SWAT-CoMOLA for the Nyangores catchment. ..26 3.3. Digital soil mapping of soil aggregate stability ..................................................28 3.4. Spatio-temporal analysis using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) 29 4. CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE METHODS USED ......................................31 4.1. Assessing suitability of data for modelling and overcoming data challenges...31 4.2. Selecting catchment management strategies based on catchment assessment . 35 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................36 6. REFERENCES ............................ .....................................................................38 PART B: PAPERS PAPER I .................................................................................................................47 PAPER II ................................................................................................................59 PAPER III ...............................................................................................................74 PAPER IV ...............................................................................................................8

    Dynamic multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms

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    Dynamic Multi-objective Optimization Problems (DMOPs) offer an opportunity to examine and solve challenging real world scenarios where trade-off solutions between conflicting objectives change over time. Definition of benchmark problems allows modelling of industry scenarios across transport, power and communications networks, manufacturing and logistics. Recently, significant progress has been made in the variety and complexity of DMOP benchmarks and the incorporation of realistic dynamic characteristics. However, significant gaps still exist in standardised methodology for DMOPs, specific problem domain examples and in the understanding of the impacts and explanations of dynamic characteristics. This thesis provides major contributions on these three topics within evolutionary dynamic multi-objective optimization. Firstly, experimental protocols for DMOPs are varied. This limits the applicability and relevance of results produced and conclusions made in the field. A major source of the inconsistency lies in the parameters used to define specific problem instances being examined. The uninformed selection of these has historically held back understanding of their impacts and standardisation in experimental approach to these parameters in the multi-objective problem domain. Using the frequency and severity (or magnitude) of change events, a more informed approach to DMOP experimentation is conceptualized, implemented and evaluated. Establishment of a baseline performance expectation across a comprehensive range of dynamic instances for well-studied DMOP benchmarks is analyzed. To maximize relevance, these profiles are composed from the performance of evolutionary algorithms commonly used for baseline comparisons and those with simple dynamic responses. Comparison and contrast with the coverage of parameter combinations in the sampled literature highlights the importance of these contributions. Secondly, the provision of useful and realistic DMOPs in the combinatorial domain is limited in previous literature. A novel dynamic benchmark problem is presented by the extension of the Travelling Thief Problem (TTP) to include a variety of realistic and contextually justified dynamic changes. Investigation of problem information exploitation and it's potential application as a dynamic response is a key output of these results and context is provided through comparison to results obtained by adapting existing TTP heuristics. Observation driven iterative development prompted the investigation of multi-population island model strategies, together with improvements in the approaches to accurately describe and compare the performance of algorithm models for DMOPs, a contribution which is applicable beyond the dynamic TTP. Thirdly, the purpose of DMOPs is to reconstruct realistic scenarios, or features from them, to allow for experimentation and development of better optimization algorithms. However, numerous important characteristics from real systems still require implementation and will drive research and development of algorithms and mechanisms to handle these industrially relevant problem classes. The novel challenges associated with these implementations are significant and diverse, even for a simple development such as consideration of DMOPs with multiple time dependencies. Real world systems with dynamics are likely to contain multiple temporally changing aspects, particularly in energy and transport domains. Problems with more than one dynamic problem component allow for asynchronous changes and a differing severity between components that leads to an explosion in the size of the possible dynamic instance space. Both continuous and combinatorial problem domains require structured investigation into the best practices for experimental design, algorithm application and performance measurement, comparison and visualization. Highlighting the challenges, the key requirements for effective progress and recommendations on experimentation are explored here

    Modelling and Optimizing Supply Chain Integrated Production Scheduling Problems

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    Globalization and advanced information technologies (e.g., Internet of Things) have considerably impacted supply chains (SCs) by persistently forcing original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to switch production strategies from make-to-stock (MTS) to make-to-order (MTO) to survive in competition. Generally, an OEM follows the MTS strategy for products with steady demand. In contrast, the MTO strategy exists under a pull system with irregular demand in which the received customer orders are scheduled and launched into production. In comparison to MTS, MTO has the primary challenges of ensuring timely delivery at the lowest possible cost, satisfying the demands of high customization and guaranteeing the accessibility of raw materials throughout the production process. These challenges are increasing substantially since industrial productions are becoming more flexible, diversified, and customized. Besides, independently making the production scheduling decisions from other stages of these SCs often find sub-optimal results, creating substantial challenges to fulfilling demands timely and cost-effectively. Since adequately managing these challenges asynchronously are difficult, constructing optimization models by integrating SC decisions, such as customer requirements, supply portfolio (supplier selection and order allocation), delivery batching decisions, and inventory portfolio (inventory replenishment, consumption, and availability), with shop floor scheduling under a deterministic and dynamic environment is essential to fulfilling customer expectations at the least possible cost. These optimization models are computationally intractable. Consequently, designing algorithms to schedule or reschedule promptly is also highly challenging for these time-sensitive, operationally integrated optimization models. Thus, this thesis focuses on modelling and optimizing SC-integrated production scheduling problems, named SC scheduling problems (SCSPs). The objective of optimizing job shop scheduling problems (JSSPs) is to ensure that the requisite resources are accessible when required and that their utilization is maximally efficient. Although numerous algorithms have been devised, they can sometimes become computationally exorbitant and yield sub-optimal outcomes, rendering production systems inefficient. These could be due to a variety of causes, such as an imbalance in population quality over generations, recurrent generation and evaluation of identical schedules, and permitting an under-performing method to conduct the evolutionary process. Consequently, this study designs two methods, a sequential approach (Chapter 2) and a multi-method approach (Chapter 3), to address the aforementioned issues and to acquire competitive results in finding optimal or near-optimal solutions for JSSPs in a single objective setting. The devised algorithms for JSSPs optimize workflows for each job by accurate mapping between/among related resources, generating more optimal results than existing algorithms. Production scheduling can not be accomplished precisely without considering supply and delivery decisions and customer requirements simultaneously. Thus, a few recent studies have operationally integrated SCs to accurately predict process insights for executing, monitoring, and controlling the planned production. However, these studies are limited to simple shop-floor configurations and can provide the least flexibility to address the MTO-based SC challenges. Thus, this study formulates a bi-objective optimization model that integrates the supply portfolio into a flexible job shop scheduling environment with a customer-imposed delivery window to cost-effectively meet customized and on-time delivery requirements (Chapter 4). Compared to the job shop that is limited to sequence flexibility only, the flexible job shop has been deemed advantageous due to its capacity to provide increased scheduling flexibility (both process and sequence flexibility). To optimize the model, the performance of the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm has been enhanced, with the results providing decision-makers with an increased degree of flexibility, offering a larger number of Pareto solutions, more varied and consistent frontiers, and a reasonable time for MTO-based SCs. Environmental sustainability is spotlighted for increasing environmental awareness and follow-up regulations. Consequently, the related factors strongly regulate the supply portfolio for sustainable development, which remained unexplored in the SCSP as those criteria are primarily qualitative (e.g., green production, green product design, corporate social responsibility, and waste disposal system). These absences may lead to an unacceptable supply portfolio. Thus, this study overcomes the problem by integrating VIKORSORT into the proposed solution methodology of the extended SCSP. In addition, forming delivery batches of heterogeneous customer orders is challenging, as one order can lead to another being delayed. Therefore, the previous optimization model is extended by integrating supply, manufacturing, and delivery batching decisions and concurrently optimizing them in response to heterogeneous customer requirements with time window constraints, considering both economic and environmental sustainability for the supply portfolio (Chapter 5). Since the proposed optimization model is an extension of the flexible job shop, it can be classified as a non-deterministic polynomial-time (NP)-hard problem, which cannot be solved by conventional optimization techniques, particularly in the case of larger instances. Therefore, a reinforcement learning-based hyper-heuristic (HH) has been designed, where four solution-updating heuristics are intelligently guided to deliver the best possible results compared to existing algorithms. The optimization model furnishes a set of comprehensive schedules that integrate the supply portfolio, production portfolio (work-center/machine assignment and customer orders sequencing), and batching decisions. This provides numerous meaningful managerial insights and operational flexibility prior to the execution phase. Recently, SCs have been experiencing unprecedented and massive disruptions caused by an abrupt outbreak, resulting in difficulties for OEMs to recover from disruptive demand-supply equilibrium. Hence, this study proposes a multi-portfolio (supply, production, and inventory portfolios) approach for a proactive-reactive scheme, which concerns the SCSP with complex multi-level products, simultaneously including unpredictably dynamic supply, demand, and shop floor disruptions (Chapter 6). This study considers fabrication and assembly in a multi-level product structure. To effectively address this time-sensitive model based on real-time data, a Q-learning-based multi-operator differential evolution algorithm in a HH has been designed to address disruptive events and generate a timely rescheduling plan. The numerical results and analyses demonstrate the proposed model's capability to effectively address single and multiple disruptions, thus providing significant managerial insights and ensuring SC resilience
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