Controlled Sensing for Multihypothesis Testing

The problem of multiple hypothesis testing with observation control is considered in both fixed sample size and sequential settings. In the fixed sample size setting, for binary hypothesis testing, the optimal exponent for the maximal error probability corresponds to the maximum Chernoff information over the choice of controls, and a pure stationary open-loop control policy is asymptotically optimal within the larger class of all causal control policies. For multihypothesis testing in the fixed sample size setting, lower and upper bounds on the optimal error exponent are derived. It is also shown through an example with three hypotheses that the optimal causal control policy can be strictly better than the optimal open-loop control policy. In the sequential setting, a test based on earlier work by Chernoff for binary hypothesis testing, is shown to be first-order asymptotically optimal for multihypothesis testing in a strong sense, using the notion of decision making risk in place of the overall probability of error. Another test is also designed to meet hard risk constrains while retaining asymptotic optimality. The role of past information and randomization in designing optimal control policies is discussed.Comment: To appear in the Transactions on Automatic Contro

Sequentiality and Adaptivity Gains in Active Hypothesis Testing

Consider a decision maker who is responsible to collect observations so as to enhance his information in a speedy manner about an underlying phenomena of interest. The policies under which the decision maker selects sensing actions can be categorized based on the following two factors: i) sequential vs. non-sequential; ii) adaptive vs. non-adaptive. Non-sequential policies collect a fixed number of observation samples and make the final decision afterwards; while under sequential policies, the sample size is not known initially and is determined by the observation outcomes. Under adaptive policies, the decision maker relies on the previous collected samples to select the next sensing action; while under non-adaptive policies, the actions are selected independent of the past observation outcomes. In this paper, performance bounds are provided for the policies in each category. Using these bounds, sequentiality gain and adaptivity gain, i.e., the gains of sequential and adaptive selection of actions are characterized.Comment: 12 double-column pages, 1 figur

Active Search with a Cost for Switching Actions

Active Sequential Hypothesis Testing (ASHT) is an extension of the classical sequential hypothesis testing problem with controls. Chernoff (Ann. Math. Statist., 1959) proposed a policy called Procedure A and showed its asymptotic optimality as the cost of sampling was driven to zero. In this paper we study a further extension where we introduce costs for switching of actions. We show that a modification of Chernoff's Procedure A, one that we call Sluggish Procedure A, is asymptotically optimal even with switching costs. The growth rate of the total cost, as the probability of false detection is driven to zero, and as a switching parameter of the Sluggish Procedure A is driven down to zero, is the same as that without switching costs.Comment: 8 pages. Presented at 2015 Information Theory and Applications Worksho

Quickest Change Detection with Controlled Sensing

In the problem of quickest change detection, a change occurs at some unknown time in the distribution of a sequence of random vectors that are monitored in real time, and the goal is to detect this change as quickly as possible subject to a certain false alarm constraint. In this work we consider this problem in the presence of parametric uncertainty in the post-change regime and controlled sensing. That is, the post-change distribution contains an unknown parameter, and the distribution of each observation, before and after the change, is affected by a control action. In this context, in addition to a stopping rule that determines the time at which it is declared that the change has occurred, one also needs to determine a sequential control policy, which chooses the control action at each time based on the already collected observations. We formulate this problem mathematically using Lorden's minimax criterion, and assuming that there are finitely many possible actions and post-change parameter values. We then propose a specific procedure for this problem that employs an adaptive CuSum statistic in which (i) the estimate of the parameter is based on a fixed number of the more recent observations, and (ii) each action is selected to maximize the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the next observation based on the current parameter estimate, apart from a small number of exploration times. We show that this procedure, which we call the Windowed Chernoff-CuSum (WCC), is first-order asymptotically optimal under Lorden's minimax criterion, for every possible possible value of the unknown post-change parameter, as the mean time to false alarm goes to infinity. We also provide simulation results to illustrate the performance of the WCC procedure

Active Anomaly Detection in Heterogeneous Processes

An active inference problem of detecting anomalies among heterogeneous processes is considered. At each time, a subset of processes can be probed. The objective is to design a sequential probing strategy that dynamically determines which processes to observe at each time and when to terminate the search so that the expected detection time is minimized under a constraint on the probability of misclassifying any process. This problem falls into the general setting of sequential design of experiments pioneered by Chernoff in 1959, in which a randomized strategy, referred to as the Chernoff test, was proposed and shown to be asymptotically optimal as the error probability approaches zero. For the problem considered in this paper, a low-complexity deterministic test is shown to enjoy the same asymptotic optimality while offering significantly better performance in the finite regime and faster convergence to the optimal rate function, especially when the number of processes is large. The computational complexity of the proposed test is also of a significantly lower order.Comment: This work has been accepted for publication on IEEE Transactions on Information Theor