Aggregation and Control of Populations of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions

This work discusses a two-step procedure, based on formal abstractions, to generate a finite-space stochastic dynamical model as an aggregation of the continuous temperature dynamics of a homogeneous population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL). The temperature of a single TCL is described by a stochastic difference equation and the TCL status (ON, OFF) by a deterministic switching mechanism. The procedure is formal as it allows the exact quantification of the error introduced by the abstraction -- as such it builds and improves on a known, earlier approximation technique in the literature. Further, the contribution discusses the extension to the case of a heterogeneous population of TCL by means of two approaches resulting in the notion of approximate abstractions. It moreover investigates the problem of global (population-level) regulation and load balancing for the case of TCL that are dependent on a control input. The procedure is tested on a case study and benchmarked against the mentioned alternative approach in the literature.Comment: 40 pages, 21 figures; the paper generalizes the result of conference publication: S. Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani and A. Abate, "Aggregation of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions," Proceedings of the European Control Conference 2013, pp. 4232-4237. version 2: added references for section

Inequalities for the ruin probability in a controlled discrete-time risk process

Ruin probabilities in a controlled discrete-time risk process with a Markov chain interest are studied. To reduce the risk there is a possibility to reinsure a part or the whole reserve. Recursive and integral equations for ruin probabilities are given. Generalized Lundberg inequalities for the ruin probabilities are derived given a constant stationary policy. The relationships between these inequalities are discussed. To illustrate these results some numerical examples are included

Uniform polynomial rates of convergence for a class of L\'evy-driven controlled SDEs arising in multiclass many-server queues

We study the ergodic properties of a class of controlled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by $\alpha$-stable processes which arise as the limiting equations of multiclass queueing models in the Halfin-Whitt regime that have heavy-tailed arrival processes. When the safety staffing parameter is positive, we show that the SDEs are uniformly ergodic and enjoy a polynomial rate of convergence to the invariant probability measure in total variation, which is uniform over all stationary Markov controls resulting in a locally Lipschitz continuous drift. We also derive a matching lower bound on the rate of convergence (under no abandonment). On the other hand, when all abandonment rates are positive, we show that the SDEs are exponentially ergodic uniformly over the above-mentioned class of controls. Analogous results are obtained for L\'evy-driven SDEs arising from multiclass many-server queues under asymptotically negligible service interruptions. For these equations, we show that the aforementioned ergodic properties are uniform over all stationary Markov controls. We also extend a key functional central limit theorem concerning diffusion approximations so as to make it applicable to the models studied here

Sampling-based Approximations with Quantitative Performance for the Probabilistic Reach-Avoid Problem over General Markov Processes

This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which can be selected to affect the probabilistic dynamics. We address the computation of maximal reach-avoid specifications, together with the synthesis of the corresponding optimal controllers. The reach-avoid specification deals with assessing the likelihood that any finite-horizon trajectory of the model enters a given goal set, while avoiding a given set of undesired states. This article newly provides an approximate computational scheme for the reach-avoid specification based on the Fitted Value Iteration algorithm, which hinges on random sample extractions, and gives a-priori computable formal probabilistic bounds on the error made by the approximation algorithm: as such, the output of the numerical scheme is quantitatively assessed and thus meaningful for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we provide tighter probabilistic error bounds that are sample-based. The overall computational scheme is put in relationship with alternative approximation algorithms in the literature, and finally its performance is practically assessed over a benchmark case study