A mixed effects model for longitudinal relational and network data, with applications to international trade and conflict

The focus of this paper is an approach to the modeling of longitudinal social network or relational data. Such data arise from measurements on pairs of objects or actors made at regular temporal intervals, resulting in a social network for each point in time. In this article we represent the network and temporal dependencies with a random effects model, resulting in a stochastic process defined by a set of stationary covariance matrices. Our approach builds upon the social relations models of Warner, Kenny and Stoto [Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979) 1742--1757] and Gill and Swartz [Canad. J. Statist. 29 (2001) 321--331] and allows for an intra- and inter-temporal representation of network structures. We apply the methodology to two longitudinal data sets: international trade (continuous response) and militarized interstate disputes (binary response).Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS403 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Preliminary prediction of individual response to electroconvulsive therapy using whole-brain functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) works rapidly and has been widely used to treat depressive disorders (DEP). However, identifying biomarkers predictive of response to ECT remains a priority to individually tailor treatment and understand treatment mechanisms. This study used a connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) approach in 122 patients with DEP to determine if pre-ECT whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) predicts depressive rating changes and remission status after ECT (47 of 122 total subjects or 38.5% of sample), and whether pre-ECT and longitudinal changes (pre/post-ECT) in regional brain network biomarkers are associated with treatment-related changes in depression ratings. Results show the networks with the best predictive performance of ECT response were negative (anti-correlated) FC networks, which predict the post-ECT depression severity (continuous measure) with a 76.23% accuracy for remission prediction. FC networks with the greatest predictive power were concentrated in the prefrontal and temporal cortices and subcortical nuclei, and include the inferior frontal (IFG), superior frontal (SFG), superior temporal (STG), inferior temporal gyri (ITG), basal ganglia (BG), and thalamus (Tha). Several of these brain regions were also identified as nodes in the FC networks that show significant change pre-/post-ECT, but these networks were not related to treatment response. This study design has limitations regarding the longitudinal design and the absence of a control group that limit the causal inference regarding mechanism of post-treatment status. Though predictive biomarkers remained below the threshold of those recommended for potential translation, the analysis methods and results demonstrate the promise and generalizability of biomarkers for advancing personalized treatment strategies

Robust training of recurrent neural networks to handle missing data for disease progression modeling

Disease progression modeling (DPM) using longitudinal data is a challenging task in machine learning for healthcare that can provide clinicians with better tools for diagnosis and monitoring of disease. Existing DPM algorithms neglect temporal dependencies among measurements and make parametric assumptions about biomarker trajectories. In addition, they do not model multiple biomarkers jointly and need to align subjects' trajectories. In this paper, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are utilized to address these issues. However, in many cases, longitudinal cohorts contain incomplete data, which hinders the application of standard RNNs and requires a pre-processing step such as imputation of the missing values. We, therefore, propose a generalized training rule for the most widely used RNN architecture, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, that can handle missing values in both target and predictor variables. This algorithm is applied for modeling the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers. The results show that the proposed LSTM algorithm achieves a lower mean absolute error for prediction of measurements across all considered MRI biomarkers compared to using standard LSTM networks with data imputation or using a regression-based DPM method. Moreover, applying linear discriminant analysis to the biomarkers' values predicted by the proposed algorithm results in a larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for clinical diagnosis of AD compared to the same alternatives, and the AUC is comparable to state-of-the-art AUCs from a recent cross-sectional medical image classification challenge. This paper shows that built-in handling of missing values in LSTM network training paves the way for application of RNNs in disease progression modeling.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure, MIDL conferenc