Enhanced artificial bee colony-least squares support vector machines algorithm for time series prediction

Over the past decades, the Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSSVM) has been widely utilized in prediction task of various application domains. Nevertheless, existing literature showed that the capability of LSSVM is highly dependent on the value of its hyper-parameters, namely regularization parameter and kernel parameter, where this would greatly affect the generalization of LSSVM in prediction task. This study proposed a hybrid algorithm, based on Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) and LSSVM, that consists of three algorithms; ABC-LSSVM, lvABC-LSSVM and cmABC-LSSVM. The lvABC algorithm is introduced to overcome the local optima problem by enriching the searching behaviour using Levy mutation. On the other hand, the cmABC algorithm that incorporates conventional mutation addresses the over- fitting or under-fitting problem. The combination of lvABC and cmABC algorithm, which is later introduced as Enhanced Artificial Bee Colony–Least Squares Support Vector Machine (eABC-LSSVM), is realized in prediction of non renewable natural resources commodity price. Upon the completion of data collection and data pre processing, the eABC-LSSVM algorithm is designed and developed. The predictability of eABC-LSSVM is measured based on five statistical metrics which include Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), prediction accuracy, symmetric MAPE (sMAPE), Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE) and Theils’ U. Results showed that the eABC-LSSVM possess lower prediction error rate as compared to eight hybridization models of LSSVM and Evolutionary Computation (EC) algorithms. In addition, the proposed algorithm is compared to single prediction techniques, namely, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). In general, the eABC-LSSVM produced more than 90% prediction accuracy. This indicates that the proposed eABC-LSSVM is capable of solving optimization problem, specifically in the prediction task. The eABC-LSSVM is hoped to be useful to investors and commodities traders in planning their investment and projecting their profit

The Weighted Support Vector Machine Based on Hybrid Swarm Intelligence Optimization for Icing Prediction of Transmission Line

Not only can the icing coat on transmission line cause the electrical fault of gap discharge and icing flashover but also it will lead to the mechanical failure of tower, conductor, insulators, and others. It will bring great harm to the people’s daily life and work. Thus, accurate prediction of ice thickness has important significance for power department to control the ice disaster effectively. Based on the analysis of standard support vector machine, this paper presents a weighted support vector machine regression model based on the similarity (WSVR). According to the different importance of samples, this paper introduces the weighted support vector machine and optimizes its parameters by hybrid swarm intelligence optimization algorithm with the particle swarm and ant colony (PSO-ACO), which improves the generalization ability of the model. In the case study, the actual data of ice thickness and climate in a certain area of Hunan province have been used to predict the icing thickness of the area, which verifies the validity and applicability of this proposed method. The predicted results show that the intelligent model proposed in this paper has higher precision and stronger generalization ability

Hybrid ACO and SVM algorithm for pattern classification

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a metaheuristic algorithm that can be used to solve a variety of combinatorial optimization problems. A new direction for ACO is to optimize continuous and mixed (discrete and continuous) variables. Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a pattern classification approach originated from statistical approaches. However, SVM suffers two main problems which include feature subset selection and parameter tuning. Most approaches related to tuning SVM parameters discretize the continuous value of the parameters which will give a negative effect on the classification performance. This study presents four algorithms for tuning the SVM parameters and selecting feature subset which improved SVM classification accuracy with smaller size of feature subset. This is achieved by performing the SVM parameters’ tuning and feature subset selection processes simultaneously. Hybridization algorithms between ACO and SVM techniques were proposed. The first two algorithms, ACOR-SVM and IACOR-SVM, tune the SVM parameters while the second two algorithms, ACOMV-R-SVM and IACOMV-R-SVM, tune the SVM parameters and select the feature subset simultaneously. Ten benchmark datasets from University of California, Irvine, were used in the experiments to validate the performance of the proposed algorithms. Experimental results obtained from the proposed algorithms are better when compared with other approaches in terms of classification accuracy and size of the feature subset. The average classification accuracies for the ACOR-SVM, IACOR-SVM, ACOMV-R and IACOMV-R algorithms are 94.73%, 95.86%, 97.37% and 98.1% respectively. The average size of feature subset is eight for the ACOR-SVM and IACOR-SVM algorithms and four for the ACOMV-R and IACOMV-R algorithms. This study contributes to a new direction for ACO that can deal with continuous and mixed-variable ACO

Interpreting Housing Prices with a MultidisciplinaryApproach Based on Nature-Inspired Algorithms and Quantum Computing

Current technology still does not allow the use of quantum computers for broader and individual uses; however, it is possible to simulate some of its potentialities through quantum computing. Quantum computing can be integrated with nature-inspired algorithms to innovatively analyze the dynamics of the real estate market or any other economic phenomenon. With this main aim, this study implements a multidisciplinary approach based on the integration of quantum computing and genetic algorithms to interpret housing prices. Starting from the principles of quantum programming, the work applies genetic algorithms for the marginal price determination of relevant real estate characteristics for a particular segment of Naples’ real estate market. These marginal prices constitute the quantum program inputs to provide, as results, the purchase probabilities corresponding to each real estate characteristic considered. The other main outcomes of this study consist of a comparison of the optimal quantities for each real estate characteristic as determined by the quantum program and the average amounts of the same characteristics but relative to the real estate data sampled, as well as the weights of the same characteristics obtained with the implementation of genetic algorithms. With respect to the current state of the art, this study is among the first regarding the application of quantum computing to interpretation of selling prices in local real estate markets

Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia

Daily electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in electrical power system operation and planning. The accuracy of forecasting electricity price can ensure that consumers minimize their electricity costs and make producers maximize their profits and avoid volatility. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on other commodities and there is a very complicated randomization in its evolution process. Therefore, in recent years, although large number of forecasting methods have been proposed and researched in this domain, it is very difficult to forecast electricity price with only one traditional model for different behaviors of electricity price. In this paper, we propose an optimized combined forecasting model by ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO) based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and support vector machine (SVM) to improve the forecasting accuracy. First, both GARCH model and SVM are developed to forecast short-term electricity price of New South Wales in Australia. Then, ACO algorithm is applied to determine the weight coefficients. Finally, the forecasting errors by three models are analyzed and compared. The experiment results demonstrate that the combined model makes accuracy higher than the single models

Time Series Predictive Analysis based on Hybridization of Meta-heuristic Algorithms

This paper presents a comparative study which involved five hybrid meta-heuristic methods to predict the weather five days in advance. The identified meta-heuristic methods namely Moth-flame Optimization (MFO), Cuckoo Search algorithm (CSA), Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), Firefly Algorithm (FA) and Differential Evolution (DE) are individually hybridized with a well-known machine learning technique namely Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM). For experimental purposes, a total of 6 independent inputs are considered which were collected based on daily weather data. The efficiency of the MFO-LSSVM, CS-LSSVM, ABC-LSSVM, FA-LSSVM, and DE-LSSVM was quantitatively analyzed based on Theil’s U and Root Mean Square Percentage Error. Overall, the experimental results demonstrate a good rival among the identified methods. However, the superiority goes to FA-LSSVM which was able to record lower error rates in prediction. The proposed prediction model could benefit many parties in continuity planning daily activities

Ant Colony Optimization

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is the best example of how studies aimed at understanding and modeling the behavior of ants and other social insects can provide inspiration for the development of computational algorithms for the solution of difficult mathematical problems. Introduced by Marco Dorigo in his PhD thesis (1992) and initially applied to the travelling salesman problem, the ACO field has experienced a tremendous growth, standing today as an important nature-inspired stochastic metaheuristic for hard optimization problems. This book presents state-of-the-art ACO methods and is divided into two parts: (I) Techniques, which includes parallel implementations, and (II) Applications, where recent contributions of ACO to diverse fields, such as traffic congestion and control, structural optimization, manufacturing, and genomics are presented

A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

Forecasting Government Bond Spreads with Heuristic Models:Evidence from the Eurozone Periphery

This study investigates the predictability of European long-term government bond spreads through the application of heuristic and metaheuristic support vector regression (SVR) hybrid structures. Genetic, krill herd and sine–cosine algorithms are applied to the parameterization process of the SVR and locally weighted SVR (LSVR) methods. The inputs of the SVR models are selected from a large pool of linear and non-linear individual predictors. The statistical performance of the main models is evaluated against a random walk, an Autoregressive Moving Average, the best individual prediction model and the traditional SVR and LSVR structures. All models are applied to forecast daily and weekly government bond spreads of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain over the sample period 2000–2017. The results show that the sine–cosine LSVR is outperforming its counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy, while metaheuristic approaches seem to benefit the parameterization process more than the heuristic ones