Potential Networks, Contagious Communities, and Understanding Social Network Structure

In this paper we study how the network of agents adopting a particular technology relates to the structure of the underlying network over which the technology adoption spreads. We develop a model and show that the network of agents adopting a particular technology may have characteristics that differ significantly from the social network of agents over which the technology spreads. For example, the network induced by a cascade may have a heavy-tailed degree distribution even if the original network does not. This provides evidence that online social networks created by technology adoption over an underlying social network may look fundamentally different from social networks and indicates that using data from many online social networks may mislead us if we try to use it to directly infer the structure of social networks. Our results provide an alternate explanation for certain properties repeatedly observed in data sets, for example: heavy-tailed degree distribution, network densification, shrinking diameter, and network community profile. These properties could be caused by a sort of `sampling bias' rather than by attributes of the underlying social structure. By generating networks using cascades over traditional network models that do not themselves contain these properties, we can nevertheless reliably produce networks that contain all these properties. An opportunity for interesting future research is developing new methods that correctly infer underlying network structure from data about a network that is generated via a cascade spread over the underlying network.Comment: To Appear in Proceedings of the 22nd International World Wide Web Conference(WWW 2013

Core Lexicon and Contagious Words

We present the new empirical parameter $f_c$, the most probable usage frequency of a word in a language, computed via the distribution of documents over frequency $x$ of the word. This parameter allows for filtering the core lexicon of a language from the content words, which tend to be extremely frequent in some texts written in specific genres or by certain authors. Distributions of documents over frequencies for such words display long tails as $x>f_c$ representing a bunch of documents in which such words are used in abundance. Collections of such documents exhibit a percolation like phase transition as the coarse grain of frequency $\Delta f$ (flattening out the strongly irregular frequency data series) approaches the critical value $f_c$.Comment: RevTex, 4 pages, 2 figure

Contagious statistical distributions: k-connections and applications in infectious disease environments.

Contagious statistical distributions are a valuable resource for managing contagion by means of k–connected chains of distributions. Binomial, hypergeometric, Po´ lya, uniform distributions with the same values for all parameters except sample size n are known to be strongly associated. This paper describes how the relationship can be obtained via factorial moments, simplifying the process by including novel elements. We describe the properties of these distributions and provide examples of their real–world application, and then define a chain of k–connected distributions, which generalises the relationship among samples of any size for a given population and the Po´lya urn model

Efficient detection of contagious outbreaks in massive metropolitan encounter networks

Physical contact remains difficult to trace in large metropolitan networks, though it is a key vehicle for the transmission of contagious outbreaks. Co-presence encounters during daily transit use provide us with a city-scale time-resolved physical contact network, consisting of 1 billion contacts among 3 million transit users. Here, we study the advantage that knowledge of such co-presence structures may provide for early detection of contagious outbreaks. We first examine the "friend sensor" scheme --- a simple, but universal strategy requiring only local information --- and demonstrate that it provides significant early detection of simulated outbreaks. Taking advantage of the full network structure, we then identify advanced "global sensor sets", obtaining substantial early warning times savings over the friends sensor scheme. Individuals with highest number of encounters are the most efficient sensors, with performance comparable to individuals with the highest travel frequency, exploratory behavior and structural centrality. An efficiency balance emerges when testing the dependency on sensor size and evaluating sensor reliability; we find that substantial and reliable lead-time could be attained by monitoring only 0.01% of the population with the highest degree.Comment: 4 figure