Distributional Impacts of a U.S. Greenhouse Gas Policy: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Carbon Pricing

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).We develop a new model of the U.S., the U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model that is resolved for large states and regions of the U.S. and by income class and apply the model to investigate a $15 per ton CO2 equivalent price on greenhouse gas emissions. Previous estimates of distributional impacts of carbon pricing have been done outside of the model simulation and have been based on energy expenditure patterns of households in different regions and of different income levels. By estimating distributional effects within the economic model, we include the effects of changes in capital returns and wages on distribution and find that the effects are significant and work against the expenditure effects. We find the following: First, while results based only on energy expenditure have shown carbon pricing to be regressive we find the full distributional effect to be neutral or slightly progressive. This demonstrates the importance of tracing through all economic impacts and not just focusing on spending side impacts. Second, the ultimate impact of such a policy on households depends on how allowances, or the revenue raised from auctioning them, is used. Free distribution to firms would be highly regressive, benefiting higher income households and forcing lower income households to bear the full cost of the policy and what amounts to a transfer of wealth to higher income households. Lump sum distribution through equal-sized household rebates would make lower income households absolutely better off while shifting the costs to higher income households. Schemes that would cut taxes are generally slightly regressive but improve somewhat the overall efficiency of the program. Third, proposed legislation would distribute allowances to local distribution companies (electricity and natural gas distributors) and public utility commissions would then determine how the value of those allowances was used. A significant risk in such a plan is that distribution to households might be perceived as lowering utility rates That reduced the efficiency of the policy we examined by 40 percent. Finally, the states on the coasts bear little cost or can benefit because of the distribution of allowance revenue while mid-America and southern states bear the highest costs. This regional pattern reflects energy consumption and energy production difference among states. Use of allowance revenue to cut taxes generally exacerbates these regional differences because coastal states are also generally higher income states, and those with higher incomes benefit more from tax cuts.MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a combination of government, industry, and foundation funding, the MIT Energy Initiative, and additional support for this work from a coalition of industrial sponsors

Energy Efficiency Economics and Policy

Energy efficiency and conservation are considered key means for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving other energy policy goals, but associated market behavior and policy responses have engendered debates in the economic literature. We review economic concepts underlying consumer decisionmaking in energy efficiency and conservation and examine related empirical literature. In particular, we provide an economic perspective on the range of market barriers, market failures, and behavioral failures that have been cited in the energy efficiency context. We assess the extent to which these conditions provide a motivation for policy intervention in energy-using product markets, including an examination of the evidence on policy effectiveness and cost. While theory and empirical evidence suggest there is potential for welfare-enhancing energy efficiency policies, many open questions remain, particularly relating to the extent of some of the key market and behavioral failures.energy efficiency, appliance standards, energy policy, market failures, behavioral failures

Can Climate Change Mitigation Policy Benefit the Israeli Economy? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

The growing attention to global warming due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the process of fossil fuel--based energy production is expressed in the Kyoto Protocol, which prescribes, on average, a 7 percent reduction in GHG emissions for developed countries. Although Israel was not included in the list of the obligated countries ("Annex A"), it should consider the economic implications of participating in the emission reduction effort, as such a commitment becomes highly feasible following the Bali roadmap which oblige a successor to the Kyoto Protocol to launch negotiations including all parties to the UNFCCC on a future framework, stressing the role of cooperative action and of common though differentiated responsibility. This study aimed to quantify the economy-wide consequences for Israel of meeting the targets of the Kyoto Protocol, employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Israeli economy. Initially, to this end, we constructed a social accounting matrix (SAM) to serve as a benchmark by combining physical energy and emission data and economic data from various sources. The efficacy of decentralized economic incentives for CO2 emission reduction, such as carbon taxes on emissions and auctioned emission permits, was assessed in terms of their impact on economic welfare. In addition, we tested for the ensuing so-called double dividend. Two distinct cases were analyzed. In the first one, we tested a revenue-neutral environmental policy which proportionally cut pre-existing taxes. Labour supply was assumed to be exogenously fixed. The results showed that, although significant CO2 emission reduction can be achieved, followed by modest economic cost, no double dividend could be discerned. Next, in order to check for the employment double dividend (lower CO2 emissions and lower unemployment), we introduced labor market imperfections, with the aim of cutting income tax. The results of this case indicate that an employment double dividend is possible under a rather standard set of assumptions. Moreover, for higher substitutability between the energy composite input and the labor-capital one, an even “strong” form of double dividend can be obtained. We performed several sensitivity analyses with respect to the modeled production function, which re-confirmed the finding that higher substitution possibilities lead to lower welfare costs 3 associated with a given emission reduction target. We qualify this general result by also showing that the opposite holds when the emission tax rate is held constant, rather than reduced. It may be concluded on the basis of this analysis that a double dividend may be an achievable goal under a GHG emission reduction policy in the case of economies such as Israel. The CGE approach applied in this research is adopted for the first time to the Israeli economy and should contribute to better informed debate on environmental policy in Israel.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Environmental Policy, Double Dividend, Israel

Supply Curves for Conserved Electricity

In this paper, we introduce a new top-down approach to modeling the effects of publicly financed energy-efficiency programs on electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The approach draws on a partial-adjustment econometric model of electricity demand and represents the results of a reverse auction for electricity savings from different levels of public investment. The model is calibrated to recent estimates of the cost-effectiveness of rate payer–funded efficiency programs at reducing electricity consumption. The results suggest that supply curves for conserved electricity are upward sloping, convex, and dependent on policy design and electricity prices. Under the scenarios modeled, electricity savings of between 1 and 3 percent are achievable at a marginal cost of $50 per megawatt hour (MWh) and a corresponding average cost of$25–$35/MWh.energy efficiency, climate change

The role of demand response in mitigating market power - A quantitative analysis using a stochastic market equilibrium model. ESRI WP635, August 2019

Market power is a dominant feature of many modern electricity markets with an oligopolistic structure, resulting in increased consumer cost. This work investigates how consumers, through demand response (DR), can mitigate against market power. Within DR, our analysis particularly focusses on the impacts of load shifting and self-generation. A stochastic mixed complementarity problem is presented to model an electricity market characterised by oligopoly with a competitive fringe. It incorporates both energy and capacity markets, multiple generating firms and different consumer types. The model is applied to a case study based on data for the Irish power system in 2025. The results demonstrate how DR can help consumers mitigate against the negative effects of market power and that load shifting and self-generation are competing technologies, whose effectivity against market power is similar for most consumers. We also find that DR does not necessarily reduce emissions in the presence of market power

The macroeconomic cost of catastrophic pollinator declines

We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach to assess the macroeconomic impacts of productivity shocks due to catastrophic losses of pollination ecosystem services at global and regional scales. In most regions, producers of pollinator dependent crops end up benefiting because direct output losses are outweighed by increased prices, while non-agricultural sectors experience large adverse indirect impacts, resulting in overall losses whose magnitudes vary substantially. By comparison, partial equilibrium analyses tend to overstate the costs to agricultural producers, understate aggregate economy-wide losses, and overstate the impacts on consumers' welfare. Our results suggest an upper bound on global willingness to pay for agricultural pollination services of $127–$152 billion

On the Economic Value and Price-Responsiveness of Ramp-Constrained Storage

The primary concerns of this paper are twofold: to understand the economic value of storage in the presence of ramp constraints and exogenous electricity prices, and to understand the implications of the associated optimal storage management policy on qualitative and quantitative characteristics of storage response to real-time prices. We present an analytic characterization of the optimal policy, along with the associated finite-horizon time-averaged value of storage. We also derive an analytical upperbound on the infinite-horizon time-averaged value of storage. This bound is valid for any achievable realization of prices when the support of the distribution is fixed, and highlights the dependence of the value of storage on ramp constraints and storage capacity. While the value of storage is a non-decreasing function of price volatility, due to the finite ramp rate, the value of storage saturates quickly as the capacity increases, regardless of volatility. To study the implications of the optimal policy, we first present computational experiments that suggest that optimal utilization of storage can, in expectation, induce a considerable amount of price elasticity near the average price, but little or no elasticity far from it. We then present a computational framework for understanding the behavior of storage as a function of price and the amount of stored energy, and for characterization of the buy/sell phase transition region in the price-state plane. Finally, we study the impact of market-based operation of storage on the required reserves, and show that the reserves may need to be expanded to accommodate market-based storage