Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

International audienceAn important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte-Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we therefore propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decision-maker's attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process

Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic and Their Applications

The present book contains 20 articles collected from amongst the 53 total submitted manuscripts for the Special Issue “Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Loigic and Their Applications” of the MDPI journal Mathematics. The articles, which appear in the book in the series in which they were accepted, published in Volumes 7 (2019) and 8 (2020) of the journal, cover a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of fuzzy systems and their extensions and generalizations. This range includes, among others, management of the uncertainty in a fuzzy environment; fuzzy assessment methods of human-machine performance; fuzzy graphs; fuzzy topological and convergence spaces; bipolar fuzzy relations; type-2 fuzzy; and intuitionistic, interval-valued, complex, picture, and Pythagorean fuzzy sets, soft sets and algebras, etc. The applications presented are oriented to finance, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, green supply chain industries, smart health practice, and hotel selection. This wide range of topics makes the book interesting for all those working in the wider area of Fuzzy sets and systems and of fuzzy logic and for those who have the proper mathematical background who wish to become familiar with recent advances in fuzzy mathematics, which has entered to almost all sectors of human life and activity

Handbook of Mathematical Geosciences

This Open Access handbook published at the IAMG's 50th anniversary, presents a compilation of invited path-breaking research contributions by award-winning geoscientists who have been instrumental in shaping the IAMG. It contains 45 chapters that are categorized broadly into five parts (i) theory, (ii) general applications, (iii) exploration and resource estimation, (iv) reviews, and (v) reminiscences covering related topics like mathematical geosciences, mathematical morphology, geostatistics, fractals and multifractals, spatial statistics, multipoint geostatistics, compositional data analysis, informatics, geocomputation, numerical methods, and chaos theory in the geosciences

From micro to macro: Essays on rationality, bounded rationality, and microfoundations.

This thesis examines some issues at the heart of theoretical macroeconomics, namely the possibility of establishing a predictive theory of individual behaviour and transforming it into a theory of the economy using aggregation. As regards individual behaviour, the basic idea in economics is that homo economicus follows the prescriptions of the expected utility theory. The thesis argues that the expected utility theory takes the agent's view of the economy as given, and is silent about how he models his choice situation and defines his decision problem. As a consequence, it is of only a minor contribution to the analysis of economic phenomena. To explain how the agent learns about the economy and thus models his choice situation, new classical economists have relatively recently proposed that the agent behaves like a statistician. That is, like a statistician, he theorises, estimates, and adapts in attempting to learn about the economy. The usefulness of this hypothesis for modelling the economy depends on the existence of a 'tight enough' theory of statistical inference. To address this issue, the thesis proposes a preliminary conjecture about how a statistician perceives and models a choice situation: the statistician regards measurable features of the environment as realisations of some random variables, with an unknown joint probability distribution. He first uses the data on these quantities to discover the joint probability distribution of the variables and then uses the estimate of the distribution to uncover the causal structure of the variables. If the resulting model turns out to be inadequate, the initial set of variables is modified and the two phases of inference are repeated. This setting allows the separation of probabilistic inference issues from those of causal inference. The thesis studies both stages of learning from data to argue why there cannot be a 'tight enough' theory of statistical learning. As a result, the marriage of the hypothesis that the agent behaves like a decision scientist with the one that he behaves like a statistician is not of much help in predicting behaviour and modelling the economy. The thesis next turns to the other issue relating to the move from a theory of individual behaviour to a theory of the economy. It argues that to explain economic phenomena it is necessary to view the economy as a society of interactive, and heterogeneous, agents. However, the regularities emerging in such a society are not directly related to the laws operating at the micro level. The connection between the individual and the aggregate levels is highly complex

Perspectives on European Earthquake Engineering and Seismology: Volume 1

Civil Engineering; Natural Hazards; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Industry Sec; 2ECEES; Earthquake Engineering; Performance Based Design and Earthquake Engineering; Irregular Buildings and Earthquakes; Historical Structures and Earthquakes; Precast Buildings and Earthquakes; Bridge Design and Earthquake

A study of student teachers' performance and psychological characteristics in learning introductory statistics

The research study for this thesis was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, factors that might affect the learning of introductory statistics for student teachers were investigated. The factors were attitudes related to learning statistics, and the effects of the limitation of the student teachers’ psychological characteristics (namely, perceptual fields or the degree of field dependency and working memory space). In addition to these factors, student teachers’ performances in a test to identify misconceptions in basic descriptive statistics concepts and probability and also in their final statistics examination were scrutinised. The results from the first stage indicated that student teaches generally had positive attitudes toward learning statistics but not toward the introductory statistics course which was described as dull or uninspiring and too mathematical. The student teachers appeared not to cope with the task of taking down the lecture notes and simultaneously trying to understand the statistical concepts to be learned. Student teachers’ performance in the statistics examination revealed a significant correlation with their working memory although not with their degree of field dependency. From the test, misconceptions about certain concepts in basic descriptive statistics and probability were identified. These correlations may reflect the nature of the test materials as much as the nature of statistics. Based on the findings from the first stage, interactive statistics learning materials employing the cooperative learning method were developed in the second stage and given to an experimental group of student teachers from five teacher training colleges. Another group of student teachers (called the comparison group) from the same colleges were taught the same materials but through the traditional lecture method. A post-questionnaire and a test based on the materials learned were given to both groups after the completion of the second stage study. The degree of field dependency for the student teacher in both groups was also measured. Results from the post-questionnaire revealed that the experimental group overwhelmingly favoured the learning units that were based on the interactive and cooperative learning while the comparison group regarded the lecture method as being dull and uninspiring. It also appeared that learning statistics based on the cooperative learning method was more favoured by the male student teachers, the Non-Mathematics Education group and the field dependent student teachers. Perhaps, not surprisingly, the experimental group performed better than the comparison group in the test based on the learning materials. In the third stage, opinions were sought from the student teachers in their final semester of study, concerning their readiness to teach statistics in school. They also sat a multiple-choice test about basic concepts in descriptive statistics and probability. In addition, the working memory capacity and the degree of field dependency of the student teachers were also measured. The findings revealed that a majority of the student teacher did not have confidence in teaching statistics. This probably stemmed from the difficulty in understanding certain statistical concepts and perhaps the statistic courses that they had attended did not provide them with a good training. The findings from the test also revealed that misconceptions in some statistical concepts still persisted and that the student teachers appeared to have forgotten some, if not all, statistical subject matter that they had previously learned in the statistics lectures. Generally, these findings indicated the weaknesses of the traditional format of teaching introductory statistics course through the lecture method

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy ventures into a territory that is still widely unexplored. It contains 30 academic contributions that aim to provide a better understanding of whether, why, and how philanthropic initiatives, understood as voluntary contributions for the common good, can and should be fostered by states through tax incentives. The topic has been addressed from a multidisciplinary and multicultural perspective – covering neuroeconomics, sociology, political science, psychology, affective sciences, philosophy, behavioral economy, and law – because of its global and multifaceted nature. It also contains the OECD report on Taxation and Philanthropy released in November 2020, which was prepared in this context as a result of a collaboration with the Geneva Centre for Philanthropy of the University of Geneva. The book is divided into four sections, exploring, respectively, the justification of tax incentives for philanthropy, theoretical and empirical insights about taxes, efficiency and donor behavior in that context, and tax incentives for cross-border philanthropy and for hybrid entities and social entrepreneurship. It is believed that this volume will be a landmark yet only the beginning of a journey in which a lot remains to be studied, learned, and said

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy

The Routledge Handbook of Taxation and Philanthropy ventures into a territory that is still widely unexplored. It contains 30 academic contributions that aim to provide a better understanding of whether, why, and how philanthropic initiatives, understood as voluntary contributions for the common good, can and should be fostered by states through tax incentives. The topic has been addressed from a multidisciplinary and multicultural perspective – covering neuroeconomics, sociology, political science, psychology, affective sciences, philosophy, behavioral economy, and law – because of its global and multifaceted nature. It also contains the OECD report on Taxation and Philanthropy released in November 2020, which was prepared in this context as a result of a collaboration with the Geneva Centre for Philanthropy of the University of Geneva. The book is divided into four sections, exploring, respectively, the justification of tax incentives for philanthropy, theoretical and empirical insights about taxes, efficiency and donor behavior in that context, and tax incentives for cross-border philanthropy and for hybrid entities and social entrepreneurship. It is believed that this volume will be a landmark yet only the beginning of a journey in which a lot remains to be studied, learned, and said

The Marketing-Entrepreneurship Interface: A Contextual and Practical Critique of the Role of Entrepreneurship

In the late nineteen eighties, Hills proposed that marketing scholars should pay far more attention to entrepreneurship and the smaller enterprise. He founded an annual research symposium and associated proceedings published under the title of Research at the Marketing/Entrepreneurship Interface. The symposia and proceedings still flourish and both the Academy of Marketing in the UK and the American Marketing Association have special interest groups for this area. This thesis is concerned with the contribution that entrepreneurship can make to understanding this interface. Without a robust definition of entrepreneurship, the interface simply becomes a study of a very common and disparate organisational form - Small to Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs). There is no shame in this for they deserve our interest, support and help. Without an understanding of the entrepreneurship component of the interface that help and support might be less effective than we, and they, would desire. Small business is not a little large business, they operate in very different circumstances with very much fewer resources to hand, and, because of who they are may have very different motivations and skill sets. Not necessarily worse but different. So entrepreneurial marketing might offer different insights, and help, compared to a standard academic approach to small business. This is a PhD by published work and twenty-three submissions are organised into four themes and form a core for discussion. The first theme considers appropriate definitions of entrepreneurship and the role they play in conceptualising the interface. The second theme considers how adopting an entrepreneurial marketing approach could guide and inform the SME in two particular respects: addressing critical situations and developing and maintaining appropriate relationships. This theme is considering entrepreneurial marketing within the SME. The third theme considers firstly entrepreneurial marketing extended away from the SME to larger organisations in both public and private ownership and to a particular form of public art where participants can be small or large and in either public or private ownership. Secondly the experience of organisations within a cluster and SMEs within a conflict zone are considered. The distinguishing focus of this third theme is that it extends the interface away from the traditional focus on SMEs. Whilst it was natural for the interface to arise out of a desire to understand a neglected organisational form in marketing – it can be applied in other contexts. The final theme considers how the author’s conceptualisation of the interface has informed their teaching and the implications for practical business support. A fundamental argument that is made in respect of understanding the role of entrepreneurship within entrepreneurial marketing is that we should not treat entrepreneurship as an absolute attribute which would direct us into classifying people simply into entrepreneurs as opposed to non-entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs range from the exceptional ‘stellar’ entrepreneur to those who are imitative of current market offerings and we should work across this range appropriately. Having discussed both an appropriate definition and role for entrepreneurship within the marketingentrepreneurship interface the implications of such a view are illustrated through considering the different contexts discussed in themes two and three above and reflecting upon the delivery of teaching programmes based partly or wholly on the notion of the marketing-entrepreneurship interface. The work is a critique of the role of entrepreneurship within the interface. The contexts selected and discussed draw out practical lessons for a wide range of individuals from undergraduates through SMEs to larger organisations in either private or public ownership