Measuring relative opinion from location-based social media: A case study of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

Social media has become an emerging alternative to opinion polls for public opinion collection, while it is still posing many challenges as a passive data source, such as structurelessness, quantifiability, and representativeness. Social media data with geotags provide new opportunities to unveil the geographic locations of users expressing their opinions. This paper aims to answer two questions: 1) whether quantifiable measurement of public opinion can be obtained from social media and 2) whether it can produce better or complementary measures compared to opinion polls. This research proposes a novel approach to measure the relative opinion of Twitter users towards public issues in order to accommodate more complex opinion structures and take advantage of the geography pertaining to the public issues. To ensure that this new measure is technically feasible, a modeling framework is developed including building a training dataset by adopting a state-of-the-art approach and devising a new deep learning method called Opinion-Oriented Word Embedding. With a case study of the tweets selected for the 2016 U.S. presidential election, we demonstrate the predictive superiority of our relative opinion approach and we show how it can aid visual analytics and support opinion predictions. Although the relative opinion measure is proved to be more robust compared to polling, our study also suggests that the former can advantageously complement the later in opinion prediction

Discovering and Mitigating Social Data Bias

abstract: Exabytes of data are created online every day. This deluge of data is no more apparent than it is on social media. Naturally, finding ways to leverage this unprecedented source of human information is an active area of research. Social media platforms have become laboratories for conducting experiments about people at scales thought unimaginable only a few years ago. Researchers and practitioners use social media to extract actionable patterns such as where aid should be distributed in a crisis. However, the validity of these patterns relies on having a representative dataset. As this dissertation shows, the data collected from social media is seldom representative of the activity of the site itself, and less so of human activity. This means that the results of many studies are limited by the quality of data they collect. The finding that social media data is biased inspires the main challenge addressed by this thesis. I introduce three sets of methodologies to correct for bias. First, I design methods to deal with data collection bias. I offer a methodology which can find bias within a social media dataset. This methodology works by comparing the collected data with other sources to find bias in a stream. The dissertation also outlines a data collection strategy which minimizes the amount of bias that will appear in a given dataset. It introduces a crawling strategy which mitigates the amount of bias in the resulting dataset. Second, I introduce a methodology to identify bots and shills within a social media dataset. This directly addresses the concern that the users of a social media site are not representative. Applying these methodologies allows the population under study on a social media site to better match that of the real world. Finally, the dissertation discusses perceptual biases, explains how they affect analysis, and introduces computational approaches to mitigate them. The results of the dissertation allow for the discovery and removal of different levels of bias within a social media dataset. This has important implications for social media mining, namely that the behavioral patterns and insights extracted from social media will be more representative of the populations under study.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

The Route Towards The Shawshank Redemption: Mapping Set-jetting with Social Media

With the development of the Web 2.0, more and more geospatial data are generated via social media. This segment of what is now called “big data” can be used to further study human spatial behaviors and practices. This project aims to explore different ways of extracting geodata from social media in order to contribute to the growing body of literature dedicated to studying the contribution of the geoweb to human geography. More specifically, this project focuses on the potential of social media to explore a growing tourism phenomenon: set-jetting. Set-jetting refers to the activity whereby people travel to visit shooting locations that appear in movies. The case study presented here focuses on the Mansfield Reformatory (Ohio, USA), which was used as the shooting location for the film The Shawshank Redemption (Dir. Frank Darabont, 1994). Through the analysis of georeferenced data mined from Twitter, Flickr, and Tripadvisor, this project presents and discusses the differences and similarities between the use of these three platforms by set-jetters to share and access geodata associated with an alternative tourist destination. The results demonstrate the complementarity of each of these applications to studying set-jetting at different scales. While Twitter appears more appropriate to study this phenomenon at a global scale, Tripadvisor provides more relevant information at the regional level and Flickr can be mobilized to study the movements of set-jetters at a very local scale. Overall, beyond the methodological and technological issues associated with the use of these social media in studying the geography of set-jetting, these applications offer new perspectives for the tourism industry and open new research areas for academics as well

Estimating the spatial distribution of crime events around a football stadium from georeferenced tweets

Crowd-based events, such as football matches, are considered generators of crime. Criminological research on the influence of football matches has consistently uncovered differences in spatial crime patterns, particularly in the areas around stadia. At the same time, social media data mining research on football matches shows a high volume of data created during football events. This study seeks to build on these two research streams by exploring the spatial relationship between crime events and nearby Twitter activity around a football stadium, and estimating the possible influence of tweets for explaining the presence or absence of crime in the area around a football stadium on match days. Aggregated hourly crime data and geotagged tweets for the same area around the stadium are analysed using exploratory and inferential methods. Spatial clustering, spatial statistics, text mining as well as a hurdle negative binomial logistic regression for spatiotemporal explanations are utilized in our analysis. Findings indicate a statistically significant spatial relationship between three crime types (criminal damage, theft and handling, and violence against the person) and tweet patterns, and that such a relationship can be used to explain future incidents of crime

Sensing the Pulse of the Pandemic: Geovisualizing the Demographic Disparities of Public Sentiment toward COVID-19 through Social Media

Social media offers a unique lens to observe users emotions and subjective feelings toward critical events or topics and has been widely used to investigate public sentiment during crises, e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic. However, social media use varies across demographic groups, with younger people being more inclined to use social media than the older population. This digital divide could lead to biases in data representativeness and analysis results, causing a persistent challenge in research based on social media data. This study aims to tackle this challenge through a case study of estimating the public sentiment about the COVID-19 using social media data. We analyzed the pandemic-related Twitter data in the United States from January 2020 to December 2021. The objectives are: (1) to elucidate the uneven social media usage among various demographic groups and the disparities of their emotions toward COVID-19, (2) to construct an unbiased measurement for public sentiment based on social media data, the Sentiment Adjusted by Demographics (SAD) index, through the post-stratification method, and (3) to evaluate the spatially and temporally evolved public sentiment toward COVID-19 using the SAD index. The results show significant discrepancies among demographic groups in their COVID-19-related emotions. Female and under or equal to 18 years old Twitter users expressed long-term negative sentiment toward COVID-19. The proposed SAD index in this study corrected the underestimation of negative sentiment in 31 states, especially in Vermont. According to the SAD index, Twitter users in Wyoming (Vermont) posted the largest (smallest) percentage of negative tweets toward the pandemic

Electronic terminological dictionary-sourcebooks as an innovative form of information and communication technologies in geoinformation and cartographic education

The aim of this work is to propose a program for the design, development, creation, implementation and use in the educational process of geoinformation and mapping education specialize

Understanding Mobility and Transport Modal Disparities Using Emerging Data Sources: Modelling Potentials and Limitations

Transportation presents a major challenge to curb climate change due in part to its ever-increasing travel demand. Better informed policy-making requires up-to-date empirical mobility data to model viable mitigation options for reducing emissions from the transport sector. On the one hand, the prevalence of digital technologies enables a large-scale collection of human mobility traces, providing big potentials for improving the understanding of mobility patterns and transport modal disparities. On the other hand, the advancement in data science has allowed us to continue pushing the boundary of the potentials and limitations, for new uses of big data in transport.This thesis uses emerging data sources, including Twitter data, traffic data, OpenStreetMap (OSM), and trip data from new transport modes, to enhance the understanding of mobility and transport modal disparities, e.g., how car and public transit support mobility differently. Specifically, this thesis aims to answer two research questions: (1) What are the potentials and limitations of using these emerging data sources for modelling mobility? (2) How can these new data sources be properly modelled for characterising transport modal disparities? Papers I-III model mobility mainly using geotagged social media data, and reveal the potentials and limitations of this data source by validating against established sources (Q1). Papers IV-V combine multiple data sources to characterise transport modal disparities (Q2) which further demonstrate the modelling potentials of the emerging data sources (Q1).Despite a biased population representation and low and irregular sampling of the actual mobility, the geolocations of Twitter data can be used in models to produce good agreements with the other data sources on the fundamental characteristics of individual and population mobility. However, its feasibility for estimating travel demand depends on spatial scale, sparsity, sampling method, and sample size. To extend the use of social media data, this thesis develops two novel approaches to address the sparsity issue: (1) An individual-based mobility model that fills the gaps in the sparse mobility traces for synthetic travel demand; (2) A population-based model that uses Twitter geolocations as attractions instead of trips for estimating the flows of people between regions. This thesis also presents two reproducible data fusion frameworks for characterising transport modal disparities. They demonstrate the power of combining different data sources to gain new insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of travel time disparities between car and public transit, and the competition between ride-sourcing and public transport

Influence of geographic biases on geolocation prediction in Twitter

Geolocating Twitter users --- the task of identifying their home locations --- serves a wide range of community and business applications such as managing natural crises, journalism, and public health. While users can record their location on their profiles, more than 34% record fake or sarcastic locations. Twitter allows users to GPS locate their content, however, less than 1% of tweets are geotagged. Therefore, inferring user location has been an important field of investigation since 2010. This thesis investigates two of the most important factors which can affect the quality of inferring user location: (i) the influence of tweet-language; and (ii) the effectiveness of the evaluation process. Previous research observed that Twitter users writing in some languages appeared to be easier to locate than those writing in others. They speculated that the geographic coverage of a language (language bias) --- represented by the number of locations where the tweets of a specific language come from --- played an important role in determining location accuracy. So important was this role that accuracy might be largely predictable by considering language alone. In this thesis, I investigate the influence of language bias on the accuracy of geolocating Twitter users. The analysis, using a large corpus of tweets written in thirteen languages and a re-implemented state-of-the-art geolocation model back at the time, provides a new understanding of the reasons behind reported performance disparities between languages. The results show that data imbalance in the distribution of Twitter users over locations (population bias) has a greater impact on accuracy than language bias. A comparison between micro and macro averaging demonstrates that existing evaluation approaches are less appropriate than previously thought. The results suggest both averaging approaches should be used to effectively evaluate geolocation. Many approaches have been proposed for automatically geolocating users; at the same time, various evaluation metrics have been proposed to measure the effectiveness of these approaches, making it challenging to understand which of these metrics is the most suitable for this task. In this thesis, I provide a standardized evaluation framework for geolocation systems. The framework is employed to analyze fifteen Twitter user geolocation models and two baselines in a controlled experimental setting. The models are composed of the re-implemented model and a variation of it, two locally retrained open source models and the results of eleven models submitted to a shared task. Models are evaluated using ten metrics --- out of fourteen employed in previous research --- over four geographic granularities. Rank correlations and thorough statistical analysis are used to assess the effectiveness of these metrics. The results demonstrate that the choice of effectiveness metric can have a substantial impact on the conclusions drawn from a geolocation system experiment, potentially leading experimenters to contradictory results about relative effectiveness. For general evaluations, a range of performance metrics should be reported, to ensure that a complete picture of system effectiveness is conveyed. Although a lot of complex geolocation algorithms have been applied in recent years, a majority class baseline is still competitive at coarse geographic granularity. A suite of statistical analysis tests is proposed, based on the employed metric, to ensure that the results are not coincidental

Multifaceted Geotagging for Streaming News

News sources on the Web generate constant streams of information, describing the events that shape our world. In particular, geography plays a key role in the news, and understanding the geographic information present in news allows for its useful spatial browsing and retrieval. This process of understanding is called geotagging, and involves first finding in the document all textual references to geographic locations, known as toponyms, and second, assigning the correct lat/long values to each toponym, steps which are termed toponym recognition and toponym resolution, respectively. These steps are difficult due to ambiguities in natural language: some toponyms share names with non-location entities, and further, a given toponym can have many location interpretations. Removing these ambiguities is crucial for successful geotagging. To this end, geotagging methods are described which were developed for streaming news. First, a spatio-textual search engine named STEWARD, and an interactive map-based news browsing system named NewsStand are described, which feature geotaggers as central components, and served as motivating systems and experimental testbeds for developing geotagging methods. Next, a geotagging methodology is presented that follows a multifaceted approach involving a variety of techniques. First, a multifaceted toponym recognition process is described that uses both rule-based and machine learning–based methods to ensure high toponym recall. Next, various forms of toponym resolution evidence are explored. One such type of evidence is lists of toponyms, termed comma groups, whose toponyms share a common thread in their geographic properties that enables correct resolution. In addition to explicit evidence, authors take advantage of the implicit geographic knowledge of their audiences. Understanding the local places known by an audience, termed its local lexicon, affords great performance gains when geotagging articles from local newspapers, which account for the vast majority of news on the Web. Finally, considering windows of text of varying size around each toponym, termed adaptive context, allows for a tradeoff between geotagging execution speed and toponym resolution accuracy. Extensive experimental evaluations of all the above methods, using existing and two newly-created, large corpora of streaming news, show great performance gains over several competing prominent geotagging methods