A Generic Path Algorithm for Regularized Statistical Estimation

Regularization is widely used in statistics and machine learning to prevent overfitting and gear solution towards prior information. In general, a regularized estimation problem minimizes the sum of a loss function and a penalty term. The penalty term is usually weighted by a tuning parameter and encourages certain constraints on the parameters to be estimated. Particular choices of constraints lead to the popular lasso, fused-lasso, and other generalized $l_1$ penalized regression methods. Although there has been a lot of research in this area, developing efficient optimization methods for many nonseparable penalties remains a challenge. In this article we propose an exact path solver based on ordinary differential equations (EPSODE) that works for any convex loss function and can deal with generalized $l_1$ penalties as well as more complicated regularization such as inequality constraints encountered in shape-restricted regressions and nonparametric density estimation. In the path following process, the solution path hits, exits, and slides along the various constraints and vividly illustrates the tradeoffs between goodness of fit and model parsimony. In practice, the EPSODE can be coupled with AIC, BIC, $C_p$ or cross-validation to select an optimal tuning parameter. Our applications to generalized $l_1$ regularized generalized linear models, shape-restricted regressions, Gaussian graphical models, and nonparametric density estimation showcase the potential of the EPSODE algorithm.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figure

Short and long-term wind turbine power output prediction

In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring, and preventive maintenance. As a first step, and following the guidelines of the existing literature, we use the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data to model the wind turbine power curve (WTPC). We explore various parametric and non-parametric approaches for the modeling of the WTPC, such as parametric logistic functions, and non-parametric piecewise linear, polynomial, or cubic spline interpolation functions. We demonstrate that all aforementioned classes of models are rich enough (with respect to their relative complexity) to accurately model the WTPC, as their mean squared error (MSE) is close to the MSE lower bound calculated from the historical data. We further enhance the accuracy of our proposed model, by incorporating additional environmental factors that affect the power output, such as the ambient temperature, and the wind direction. However, all aforementioned models, when it comes to forecasting, seem to have an intrinsic limitation, due to their inability to capture the inherent auto-correlation of the data. To avoid this conundrum, we show that adding a properly scaled ARMA modeling layer increases short-term prediction performance, while keeping the long-term prediction capability of the model

Optimal experiment design revisited: fair, precise and minimal tomography

Given an experimental set-up and a fixed number of measurements, how should one take data in order to optimally reconstruct the state of a quantum system? The problem of optimal experiment design (OED) for quantum state tomography was first broached by Kosut et al. [arXiv:quant-ph/0411093v1]. Here we provide efficient numerical algorithms for finding the optimal design, and analytic results for the case of 'minimal tomography'. We also introduce the average OED, which is independent of the state to be reconstructed, and the optimal design for tomography (ODT), which minimizes tomographic bias. We find that these two designs are generally similar. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the utility of our results for qubits. Finally, we adapt our approach to deal with constrained techniques such as maximum likelihood estimation. We find that these are less amenable to optimization than cruder reconstruction methods, such as linear inversion.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figure