Non-Traded Asset Valuation with Portfolio Constraints: A Binomial Approach

Cet article développe un modèle binomial d'évaluation des titres dérivés américains en présence de contraintes d'investissement. Les politiques optimales d'investissement et d'exercice du titre dérivé non-marchandé sont résolues de manière simultanée . La contrainte d'absence de ventes à découvert se manifeste sous forme d'un dividende implicite portant sur le processus neutre au risque de l'actif sous-jacent. Une des conséquences est l'optimalité possible de l'exercice avant l'expiration du contrat même lorsque l'actif sous-jacent ne paye pas de dividendes. Une application à l'évaluation des options de compensation des cadres d'entreprises est présentée. Nous étudions également l'évaluation de titres basés sur un prix qui est imparfaitement corrélé avec le prix d'un actif transigé.We provide a simple binomial framework to value American-style derivatives subject to trading restrictions. The optimal investment of liquid wealth is solved simultaneously with the early exercise decision of the non-traded derivative. No-short-sales constraints on the underlying asset manifest themselves in the form of an implicit dividend yield in the risk neutralized process for the underlying asset. One consequence is that American call options may be optimally exercised prior to maturity even when the underlying asset pays no dividends. Applications to executive compensation options are presented. We also analyze non-traded payoffs based on a price that is imperfectly correlated with the price of a traded asset

Topics in portfolio management

In this thesis, two topics in portfolio management have been studied: utility-risk portfolio selection and a paradox in time consistency in mean-variance problem. The first topic is a comprehensive study on utility maximization subject to deviation risk constraints. Under the complete Black-Scholes framework, by using the martingale approach and mean-field heuristic, a static problem including a variational inequality and some constraints on nonlinear moments, called Nonlinear Moment Problem, has been obtained to completely characterize the optimal terminal payoff. By solving the Nonlinear Moment Problem, the various well-posed mean-risk problems already known in the literature have been revisited, and also the existence of the optimal solutions for both utility-downside-risk and utility-strictly-convex-risk problems has been established under the assumption that the underlying utility satisfies the Inada Condition. To the best of our knowledge, the positive answers to the latter two problems have long been absent in the literature. In particular, the existence of an optimal solution for utility-semivariance problem, an example of the utility-downside-risk problem, is in substantial contrast to the nonexistence of an optimal solution for the mean-semivariance problem. This existence result allows us to utilize semivariance as a risk measure in portfolio management. Furthermore, it has been shown that the continuity of the optimal terminal wealth in pricing kernel, thus the solutions in the binomial tree models converge to the solution in the continuous-time Black-Scholes model. The convergence can be applied to provide a numerical method to compute the optimal solution for utility-deviation-risk problem by using the optimal portfolios in the binomial tree models, which are easily computed; such numerical algorithm for optimal solution to utility-risk problem has been absent in the literature. In the second part of this thesis, a paradox in time consistency in mean-variance has been established. People often change their preference over time, so the maximizer for current preference may not be optimal in the future. We call this phenomenon time inconsistency or dynamic inconsistency. To manage the issues of time inconsistency, a game-theoretic approach is widely utilized to provide a time-consistent equilibrium solution for dynamic optimization problem. It has been established that, if investors with mean-variance preference adopt the equilibrium solutions, an investor facing short-selling prohibition can acquire a greater objective value than his counterpart without the prohibition in a buoyant market. It has been further shown that the pure strategy of solely investing in bond can sometimes simultaneously dominate both constrained and unconstrained equilibrium strategies. With numerical experiments, the constrained investor can dominate the unconstrained one for more than 90% of the time horizon. The source of paradox is rooted from the nature of game-theoretic approach on time consistency, which purposely seeks for an equilibrium solution but not the ultimate maximizer. Our obtained results actually advocate that, to properly implement the concept of time consistency in various financial problems, all economic aspects should be critically taken into account at a time.Open Acces

Time-Consistent Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection in Discrete and Continuous Time

It is well known that mean-variance portfolio selection is a time-inconsistent optimal control problem in the sense that it does not satisfy Bellman's optimality principle and therefore the usual dynamic programming approach fails. We develop a time- consistent formulation of this problem, which is based on a local notion of optimality called local mean-variance efficiency, in a general semimartingale setting. We start in discrete time, where the formulation is straightforward, and then find the natural extension to continuous time. This complements and generalises the formulation by Basak and Chabakauri (2010) and the corresponding example in Bj\"ork and Murgoci (2010), where the treatment and the notion of optimality rely on an underlying Markovian framework. We justify the continuous-time formulation by showing that it coincides with the continuous-time limit of the discrete-time formulation. The proof of this convergence is based on a global description of the locally optimal strategy in terms of the structure condition and the F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition of the mean-variance tradeoff. As a byproduct, this also gives new convergence results for the F\"ollmer-Schweizer decomposition, i.e. for locally risk minimising strategies

Dynamic pricing of general insurance in a competitive market

A model for general insurance pricing is developed which represents a stochastic generalisation of the discrete model proposed by Taylor (1986). This model determines the insurance premium based both on the breakeven premium and the competing premiums offered by the rest of the insurance market. The optimal premium is determined using stochastic optimal control theory for two objective functions in order to examine how the optimal premium strategy changes with the insurer’s objective. Each of these problems can be formulated in terms of a multi-dimensional Bellman equation. In the first problem the optimal insurance premium is calculated when the insurer maximises its expected terminal wealth. In the second, the premium is found if the insurer maximises the expected total discounted utility of wealth where the utility function is nonlinear in the wealth. The solution to both these problems is built-up from simpler optimisation problems. For the terminal wealth problem with constant loss-ratio the optimal premium strategy can be found analytically. For the total wealth problem the optimal relative premium is found to increase with the insurer’s risk aversion which leads to reduced market exposure and lower overall wealth generation

The Bellman equation for power utility maximization with semimartingales

We study utility maximization for power utility random fields with and without intermediate consumption in a general semimartingale model with closed portfolio constraints. We show that any optimal strategy leads to a solution of the corresponding Bellman equation. The optimal strategies are described pointwise in terms of the opportunity process, which is characterized as the minimal solution of the Bellman equation. We also give verification theorems for this equation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AAP776 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Ramsey Rule with Progressive utility and Long Term Affine Yields Curves

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new economic information is crucial, justifying the use of progressive utility. This paper studies, in a framework with affine factors, the yield curve given from the Ramsey rule. It first characterizes consistent progressive utility of investment and consumption, given the optimal wealth and consumption processes. A special attention is paid to utilities associated with linear optimal processes with respect to their initial conditions, which is for example the case of power progressive utilities. Those utilities are the basis point to construct other progressive utilities generating non linear optimal processes but leading yet to still tractable computations. This is of particular interest to study the impact of initial wealth on yield curves.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1404.189