A Neural Approach to Ordinal Regression for the Preventive Assessment of Developmental Dyslexia

Developmental Dyslexia (DD) is a learning disability related to the acquisition of reading skills that affects about 5% of the population. DD can have an enormous impact on the intellectual and personal development of affected children, so early detection is key to implementing preventive strategies for teaching language. Research has shown that there may be biological underpinnings to DD that affect phoneme processing, and hence these symptoms may be identifiable before reading ability is acquired, allowing for early intervention. In this paper we propose a new methodology to assess the risk of DD before students learn to read. For this purpose, we propose a mixed neural model that calculates risk levels of dyslexia from tests that can be completed at the age of 5 years. Our method first trains an auto-encoder, and then combines the trained encoder with an optimized ordinal regression neural network devised to ensure consistency of predictions. Our experiments show that the system is able to detect unaffected subjects two years before it can assess the risk of DD based mainly on phonological processing, giving a specificity of 0.969 and a correct rate of more than 0.92. In addition, the trained encoder can be used to transform test results into an interpretable subject spatial distribution that facilitates risk assessment and validates methodology.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

On the Dark Side of Calibration for Modern Neural Networks

Modern neural networks are highly uncalibrated. It poses a significant challenge for safety-critical systems to utilise deep neural networks (DNNs), reliably. Many recently proposed approaches have demonstrated substantial progress in improving DNN calibration. However, they hardly touch upon refinement, which historically has been an essential aspect of calibration. Refinement indicates separability of a network's correct and incorrect predictions. This paper presents a theoretically and empirically supported exposition for reviewing a model's calibration and refinement. Firstly, we show the breakdown of expected calibration error (ECE), into predicted confidence and refinement. Connecting with this result, we highlight that regularisation based calibration only focuses on naively reducing a model's confidence. This logically has a severe downside to a model's refinement. We support our claims through rigorous empirical evaluations of many state of the art calibration approaches on standard datasets. We find that many calibration approaches with the likes of label smoothing, mixup etc. lower the utility of a DNN by degrading its refinement. Even under natural data shift, this calibration-refinement trade-off holds for the majority of calibration methods. These findings call for an urgent retrospective into some popular pathways taken for modern DNN calibration.Comment: 15 pages including references and supplementa