Kernel Based Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Copulas with Fixed Smoothing Parameters

We study a test statistic on the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimator of the copula density and a kernel smoothed estimator of the parametric copula density. We show for fixed smoothing parameters that the test is consistent and that the asymptotic properties are driven by a U-statistic of order 4 with degeneracy of order 3. For practical implementation we suggest to compute the critical values through a semiparametric bootstrap. Monte Carlo results show that the bootstrap procedure performs well in small samples. In particular size and power are less sensitive to smoothing parameter choice than they are under the asymptotic approximation obtained for a vanishing bandwidth.Nonparametric; Copula density; Goodness-of-fit test; U-statistic.

Uniform convergence of convolution estimators for the response density in nonparametric regression

We consider a nonparametric regression model $Y=r(X)+\varepsilon$ with a random covariate $X$ that is independent of the error $\varepsilon$. Then the density of the response $Y$ is a convolution of the densities of $\varepsilon$ and $r(X)$. It can therefore be estimated by a convolution of kernel estimators for these two densities, or more generally by a local von Mises statistic. If the regression function has a nowhere vanishing derivative, then the convolution estimator converges at a parametric rate. We show that the convergence holds uniformly, and that the corresponding process obeys a functional central limit theorem in the space $C_0(\mathbb {R})$ of continuous functions vanishing at infinity, endowed with the sup-norm. The estimator is not efficient. We construct an additive correction that makes it efficient.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJ451 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Parameter estimation and model testing for Markov processes via conditional characteristic functions

Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for L\'{e}vy-driven processes. We propose an empirical likelihood approach, for both parameter estimation and model specification testing, based on the conditional characteristic function for processes with either continuous or discontinuous sample paths. Theoretical properties of the empirical likelihood estimator for parameters and a smoothed empirical likelihood ratio test for a parametric specification of the process are provided. Simulations and empirical case studies are carried out to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimator and test.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/11-BEJ400 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Large-sample study of the kernel density estimators under multiplicative censoring

The multiplicative censoring model introduced in Vardi [Biometrika 76 (1989) 751--761] is an incomplete data problem whereby two independent samples from the lifetime distribution $G$, $\mathcal{X}_m=(X_1,...,X_m)$ and $\mathcal{Z}_n=(Z_1,...,Z_n)$, are observed subject to a form of coarsening. Specifically, sample $\mathcal{X}_m$ is fully observed while $\mathcal{Y}_n=(Y_1,...,Y_n)$ is observed instead of $\mathcal{Z}_n$, where $Y_i=U_iZ_i$ and $(U_1,...,U_n)$ is an independent sample from the standard uniform distribution. Vardi [Biometrika 76 (1989) 751--761] showed that this model unifies several important statistical problems, such as the deconvolution of an exponential random variable, estimation under a decreasing density constraint and an estimation problem in renewal processes. In this paper, we establish the large-sample properties of kernel density estimators under the multiplicative censoring model. We first construct a strong approximation for the process $\sqrt{k}(\hat{G}-G)$, where $\hat{G}$ is a solution of the nonparametric score equation based on $(\mathcal{X}_m,\mathcal{Y}_n)$, and $k=m+n$ is the total sample size. Using this strong approximation and a result on the global modulus of continuity, we establish conditions for the strong uniform consistency of kernel density estimators. We also make use of this strong approximation to study the weak convergence and integrated squared error properties of these estimators. We conclude by extending our results to the setting of length-biased sampling.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS954 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Convergence Hypotheses are Ill-Posed:Non-stationarity of Cross-Country Income Distribution D

The recent literature on “convergence� of cross-country per capita incomes has been dominated by two competing hypotheses: “global convergence� and “club-convergence�. This debate has recently relied on the study of limiting distributions of estimated income distribution dynamics. Utilizing new measures of “stochastic stability�, we establish two stylized facts that question the fruitfulness of the literature’s focus on asymptotic income distributions. The first stylized fact is non-stationarity of transition dynamics, in the sense of changing transition kernels, which renders all “convergence� hypotheses that make long-term predictions on income distribution, based on relatively short time series, less meaningful. The second stylized fact is the periodic emergence, disappearance, and re-emergence of a “stochastically stable� middle-income group. We show that the probability of escaping a low-income poverty-trap depends on the existence of such a stable middle income group. While this does not answer the perennial questions about long-term effects of globalization on the cross-country income distribution, it does shed some light on the types of environments that are conducive to narrowing/global income distribution; convergence clubs; transition kernel; stochastic stability