Investment under ambiguity with the best and worst in mind

Recent literature on optimal investment has stressed the difference between the impact of risk and the impact of ambiguity - also called Knightian uncertainty - on investors' decisions. In this paper, we show that a decision maker's attitude towards ambiguity is similarly crucial for investment decisions. We capture the investor's individual ambiguity attitude by applying alpha-MEU preferences to a standard investment problem. We show that the presence of ambiguity often leads to an increase in the subjective project value, and entrepreneurs are more eager to invest. Thereby, our investment model helps to explain differences in investment behavior in situations which are objectively identical

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance

Is technical efficiency affected by farmers’ preference for mitigation and adaptation actions against climate change? A case study in northwest Mexico

Climate change has adverse effects on agriculture, decreasing crop quality and productivity. This makes it necessary to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies that contribute to the maintenance of technical efficiency (TE). This study analyzed the relationship of TE with farmers’ mitigation and adaptation action preferences, their risk and environmental attitudes, and their perception of climate change. Through the stochastic frontier method, TE levels were estimated for 370 farmers in Northwest Mexico. The results showed the average efficiency levels (57%) for three identified groups of farmers: High TE (15% of farmers), average TE (72%), and low TE (13%). Our results showed a relationship between two of the preferred adaptation actions against climate change estimated using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. The most efficient farmers preferred “change crops,” while less efficient farmers preferred “invest in irrigation infrastructure.” The anthropocentric environmental attitude inferred from the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale was related to the level of TE. Efficient farmers were those with an anthropocentric environmental attitude, compared to less efficient farmers, who exhibited an ecocentric attitude. The climate change issues were more perceived by moderately efficient farmers. These findings set out a roadmap for policy-makers to face climate change at the regional levelPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Real Options under Choquet-Brownian Ambiguitys

Real options models characterized by the presence of “ambiguity” (or “Knightian uncertainty”) have been recently proposed. But based on recursive multiple-priors preferences, they typically describe ambiguity through a range of Geometric Brownian motions and solve it by application of a maxmin expected utility criterion among them (worst case). This reduces acceptable individual preferences to the single case of an extreme form of pessimism. In contrast, by relying on dynamically consistent “Choquet-Brownian” motions to represent the ambiguous cash flows expected from a project, we show that a much broader spectrum of attitudes towards ambiguity may be accounted for, improving the explanatory and application potentials of these appealing expanded real options models. In the case of a perpetual real option to invest, ambiguity aversion may delay the moment of exercise of the option, while the opposite holds true for an ambiguity seeking decision maker. Furthermore, an intricate relationship between risk and ambiguity appears strikingly in our model.

Real Options under Choquet-Brownian Ambiguity

Real options models characterized by the presence of ambiguity have been recently proposed. But based on recursive multiple-priors approaches to solve ambiguity, these seminal models reduce individual preferences to extreme pessimism by considering only the worst case scenario. In contrast, by relying on dynamically consistent Choquet-Brownian motions to model the dynamics of ambiguous expected cash flows, we show that a much broader spectrum of attitudes towards ambiguity may be accounted for. In the case of a perpetual real option to invest, ambiguity aversion delays the moment of exercise of the option, while the opposite holds true for an ambiguity lover.Real Options; Ambiguity; Irreversible investment; Optimal stopping; Knightian uncertainty; Choquet-Brownian motions

Escalating Commitment: Business Investments and CSR

There are many instances, in all areas of business, in which individuals can become committed to a course of action that begins costing more than it is producing. Because it is often possible for persons who have suffered a setback to recoup their losses through an even greater commitment of resources to the same course of action, a cycle of escalating commitment can be produced (Staw, 1981). This thesis serves to address prior literature and prior studies based on the theory of escalation behavior . We furthered our research by conducting an experiment using university students to test certain said theory with the incorporation of specific variables (i.e. tax-avoidance strategies vs. sustainable investing). As such, this thesis was designed with the purpose of trying to understand why such behavior exists and what factors may have significant influence on the cycle known as escalating commitment

On the role of sunk costs and transaction costs in utsourcing decisions.

In this paper we report the results of two experiments examining the influence of sunk historical investments for internal production on the outsourcing decision. Outsourcing activities to external companies in an important issue in today's competitive environment. Transaction cost economics offers a theoretical explanation taking into account future transaction and production costs. In this theoretical framework, asset specificity and uncertainly are the main explanatory variables for the choice between producing internally or outsourcing to suppliers. We study the additional influence of internal sunk costs on outsourcing. We conclude that, contrary to accounting norms and standard economic theory , sunk costs are an additional explanatory factor in the outsourcing decision.Costs; Outsourcing; Decisions; Investments; Companies; Economics;

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

Portfolio selection models: A review and new directions

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based upon the classical Markowitz model which uses variance as a risk measure. A generalization of this approach leads to mean-risk models, in which a return distribution is characterized by the expected value of return (desired to be large) and a risk value (desired to be kept small). Portfolio choice is made by solving an optimization problem, in which the portfolio risk is minimized and a desired level of expected return is specified as a constraint. The need to penalize different undesirable aspects of the return distribution led to the proposal of alternative risk measures, notably those penalizing only the downside part (adverse) and not the upside (potential). The downside risk considerations constitute the basis of the Post Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT). Examples of such risk measures are lower partial moments, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We revisit these risk measures and the resulting mean-risk models. We discuss alternative models for portfolio selection, their choice criteria and the evolution of MPT to PMPT which incorporates: utility maximization and stochastic dominance