11,174 research outputs found
Sequential Design for Ranking Response Surfaces
We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking
several response surfaces. Namely, given response surfaces over a
continuous input space , the aim is to efficiently find the index of
the minimal response across the entire . The response surfaces are not
known and have to be noisily sampled one-at-a-time. This setting is motivated
by stochastic control applications and requires joint experimental design both
in space and response-index dimensions. To generate sequential design
heuristics we investigate stepwise uncertainty reduction approaches, as well as
sampling based on posterior classification complexity. We also make connections
between our continuous-input formulation and the discrete framework of pure
regret in multi-armed bandits. To model the response surfaces we utilize
kriging surrogates. Several numerical examples using both synthetic data and an
epidemics control problem are provided to illustrate our approach and the
efficacy of respective adaptive designs.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures (updated several sections and figures
Adaptive Policies for Sequential Sampling under Incomplete Information and a Cost Constraint
We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of
independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon
average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average
sampling cost does not exceed an upper bound. The outcome distributions are not
known. We construct a class of consistent adaptive policies, under which the
average outcome converges with probability 1 to the true value under complete
information for all distributions with finite means. We also compare the rate
of convergence for various policies in this class using simulation
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