Distinguishing cause from effect using observational data: methods and benchmarks

The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X, Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: Additive Noise Methods (ANM) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CauseEffectPairs that consists of data for 100 different cause-effect pairs selected from 37 datasets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the additive-noise method originally proposed by Hoyer et al. (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63+-10 % and an AUC of 0.74+-0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method.Comment: 101 pages, second revision submitted to Journal of Machine Learning Researc

Quantifying dependencies for sensitivity analysis with multivariate input sample data

We present a novel method for quantifying dependencies in multivariate datasets, based on estimating the R\'{e}nyi entropy by minimum spanning trees (MSTs). The length of the MSTs can be used to order pairs of variables from strongly to weakly dependent, making it a useful tool for sensitivity analysis with dependent input variables. It is well-suited for cases where the input distribution is unknown and only a sample of the inputs is available. We introduce an estimator to quantify dependency based on the MST length, and investigate its properties with several numerical examples. To reduce the computational cost of constructing the exact MST for large datasets, we explore methods to compute approximations to the exact MST, and find the multilevel approach introduced recently by Zhong et al. (2015) to be the most accurate. We apply our proposed method to an artificial testcase based on the Ishigami function, as well as to a real-world testcase involving sediment transport in the North Sea. The results are consistent with prior knowledge and heuristic understanding, as well as with variance-based analysis using Sobol indices in the case where these indices can be computed

On the consistency of Multithreshold Entropy Linear Classifier

Multithreshold Entropy Linear Classifier (MELC) is a recent classifier idea which employs information theoretic concept in order to create a multithreshold maximum margin model. In this paper we analyze its consistency over multithreshold linear models and show that its objective function upper bounds the amount of misclassified points in a similar manner like hinge loss does in support vector machines. For further confirmation we also conduct some numerical experiments on five datasets.Comment: Presented at Theoretical Foundations of Machine Learning 2015 (http://tfml.gmum.net), final version published in Schedae Informaticae Journa